Winnipeg Jets
No Hellebuyck, no margin
Two years after a 116-point season, Winnipeg missed the playoffs, and now its franchise goalie refuses to report. The Jets still have scorers in Scheifele, Connor and Vilardi. Our model has them in the bottom third of the league, a few points above the sportsbooks, which have priced the worst case.
The bettor's bottom line
- A bottom-ten team, priced a bit low. D+ rating, 23rd in the league, about 88 points over 84 games. The books sit at 84.5, below us.
- The Hellebuyck question decides the season. He is suspended for not reporting and wants a trade. Our rating already assumes he does not play. A return would move it up; a trade for real assets could too.
- Skinner is a fair stand-in. Stuart Skinner grades B-, a solid starter. The backup, waiver claim Clay Stevenson, has four NHL games.
- One of the oldest cores in the league. Only two teams have an older lineup. Scheifele is 33, Lowry 33, DeMelo 33.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 39.1% win / 23.3% draw / 37.6% loss (2.56 / 4.29 / 2.66). On the road 31.6% win / 23.3% draw / 45.1% loss (3.17 / 4.28 / 2.22).
Two springs ago Winnipeg won the Presidents' Trophy with 116 points. Last season it finished 26th with 82 and missed the playoffs. This September, Connor Hellebuyck, the goalie who won the Vezina and the Hart behind that great season, did not show up to camp. He has asked for a trade, holds a no-move clause and has reportedly ruled out Canadian teams. The Jets suspended him without pay.
What remains is a team with a strong top line and a lot of questions. Mark Scheifele had 103 points and Kyle Connor 92. Gabriel Vilardi scored 30. Stuart Skinner, signed in July after a strong half season in Pittsburgh, takes the net. Jonathan Toews, who came out of retirement for last season, is gone again.
For bettors, the question is how bad it gets without the best goalie of the last decade. Our answer is: not as bad as the price. Last season was already a down year, and Hellebuyck was only slightly above average in it. On chances Winnipeg was a bottom-twelve team, a little unlucky in finishing. Losing Hellebuyck is the biggest goalie downgrade in the league in our model. Skinner, though, is a real NHL starter, and the skaters around him are a little better than last season's.
That puts us a few points warmer than the market, which has the Jets near the bottom of the West. NHL.com's preview frames the season as a scramble to replace Hellebuyck, and that is the right frame. Our view is that the scramble has already been partly solved. The bigger worry is age: the core that won in 2025 is older, and there is little young talent pushing it.
1What last season really was
Winnipeg's 82 points were close to what its play deserved.
| Measure | WPG | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 82 | 26th | 7th in the Central |
| Goals for / against | 229 / 256 | -27 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 48.4% | 21st | Below even |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 48.8% | 21st | Same after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 48.7% | 20th | Below even |
| Finishing, goals above expected | -18.4 | 25th | Bottom eight |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | +7.6 | 14th | +2.1 in the first half, +5.5 in the second |
On chances, the Jets were 21st in the league, and their luck-adjusted rating is a bit above the actual one. The shooters scored well below expected, and the goaltending was only a little above average, a long way from the two previous seasons, when Hellebuyck was worth more than 40 goals a year.
The second half was better, 47 points after 35 in the first. Winnipeg's shooting has swung above and below expected over five seasons, so our model does not treat last season's drop as a trait. Shooting and goaltending together over three seasons still come out as the best in the league, mostly because of Hellebuyck, and that is what leaves with him.
2How the model builds Winnipeg's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is below average. Measured on chances rather than results, Winnipeg was a bottom-twelve team last season.
The goalie change is the biggest drag. Hellebuyck's three-season record is still among the best in the league. Replacing him with Skinner is the largest goalie downgrade of any team this summer.
Three seasons of goaltending and finishing are a plus. This is Hellebuyck's past work; the model credits it only partly once he is gone.
Age is a drag. Only two teams have an older lineup. Older teams tend to decline the next season.
The roster is a little better. Mario Ferraro is a real shutdown defenseman, and Toews and Nyquist, who left, graded low last season.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner | G | Goalie | Pittsburgh | 50 GP · +8.3 GSAx | B- | Starter now. Well above expected after a midseason trade to Pittsburgh. Signed for two years to replace a goalie who is not here. |
| Mario Ferraro | D | Shutdown / PK | San Jose | 82 GP · 7 G · 23 P | C+ | Upgrade. A shutdown defenseman who killed more than three minutes a night in San Jose. |
| Noah Gregor | C | Middle-six all-rounder | Florida | 37 GP · 4 G · 9 P | n/a | None. Depth forward, not on the opening roster. |
| Jack St. Ivany | D | Physical depth | Pittsburgh | 20 GP · 0 G · 7 P | C | Small. A depth defenseman from Pittsburgh, in the lineup until Salomonsson returns. |
| Viggo Björck | C | Two-way top C | Sweden, NHL debut | No NHL games last season | C | Upside. A young Swedish center making his NHL debut, handed the second-line job. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Toews | C | Two-way top C | Unsigned | 82 GP · 11 G · 29 P | D+ | Small. Played all 82 games after coming out of retirement, but graded below average. Unsigned. |
| Gustav Nyquist | RW | Middle-six all-rounder | Unsigned | 51 GP · 1 G · 12 P | C+ | Small loss. A veteran middle-six winger. Unsigned. |
| Eric Comrie | G | Goalie | San Jose | 25 GP · -0.6 GSAx | D+ | None. Backup, now in San Jose. |
| Colin Miller | D | Physical depth | Unsigned | 18 GP · 0 G · 2 P | n/a | None. Depth defenseman. |
| Jacob Bryson | D | Sheltered puck mover | Unsigned | 15 GP · 0 G · 3 P | D | None. Depth defenseman. |
Net: a small upgrade among the skaters, a big downgrade in goal. Skinner and Ferraro are useful signings, and backup Clay Stevenson was claimed off waivers from Washington. None of it replaces Hellebuyck.
Isak Rosen arrived from Buffalo at the deadline and played 21 games. He starts on the second line, a lot of responsibility for a player with little NHL record.
The coach is neutral. Scott Arniel's record is close to average.
The result is a D+ team, 23rd in the league, projected for about 88 points. That puts Winnipeg between Anaheim and Toronto, and fifth in the Central behind Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota and Utah. The books are about three points lower.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
The top line still scores. Scheifele had 103 points and Connor 92, one of the most productive pairs in the league. Connor grades B+ and Scheifele B-, because their defensive numbers lag their scoring. Cole Perfetti, 24, gets the third spot.
The second line is a gamble. Viggo Björck, making his NHL debut, centers Vilardi and Isak Rosen. Vilardi, 30 goals, grades B. By our grades the top six ranks near the bottom third of the league.
Lowry anchors the checkers. Adam Lowry grades B+ as a defensive center and kills penalties. Morgan Barron and Brad Lambert flank him. The fourth line of Niederreiter, Namestnikov and Iafallo is all veterans over 32.
The blue line is Morrissey and depth. Josh Morrissey grades A- and plays nearly 25 minutes. Samberg grades B- and Ferraro C+. DeMelo and Pionk are older and grade lower. The top four ranks around 11th in the league, the strongest part of the roster.
4Who matters most
The goalie is the player the price depends on most, and that will stay true for as long as the Hellebuyck saga lasts. Every report of a trade or a return changes the team's number.
Among skaters, Morrissey matters more than any forward. He plays the most minutes and runs the power play. When a big-minute defenseman sits, his ice time goes to someone much worse. On game day, check the starter and Morrissey first.
5Goaltending: after Hellebuyck
Hellebuyck's last season in Winnipeg was ordinary by his standards: above expected in October, close to it most months after, below it in January and April. Eric Comrie, the backup, swung around average and left for San Jose. Now the crease belongs to Stuart Skinner, who was well above expected after a midseason trade to Pittsburgh.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck | +6.8 (9) | +1.0 (5) | +1.3 (8) | -1.9 (12) | +0.3 (3) | +1.1 (14) | -3.0 (6) | +5.6 |
| Eric Comrie | +1.9 (2) | -4.0 (7) | +1.2 (6) | +1.9 (4) | -0.0 (1) | +2.0 (2) | -3.7 (3) | -0.7 |
Our projection grades Skinner B-, a solid starter, better than the common view of him after his Edmonton years. The backup is the weak spot: Clay Stevenson, claimed off waivers from Washington, has four NHL games, and our projection grades him near the bottom.
Winnipeg has only nine back-to-back sets, among the fewest in the league, so Skinner should carry a heavy load. If Hellebuyck is traded for a goalie, or returns, this section changes overnight. Confirm the starter before you bet.
6Winnipeg's system: how they score and defend
Scott Arniel's teams have no strong signature, and last season's Jets were close to average in most ways. They took fewer shots than average, but a good share from the slot, and scored a lot off rebounds. At the other end, they gave up the second-most rebound chances in the league.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Balanced, no strong signature | Balanced, no strong signature (two seasons here) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | -0.2 SD | About average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | -0.2 SD | About average |
| Blocked shots per 60 | -0.4 SD | Blocks a little less than average |
| Hits per 60 | +0.2 SD | About average |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | No measurable boost or drag |
| Measure | WPG | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 217 | 238 | 7th fewest |
| Shot attempts | 3,320 | 3,470 | 9th fewest |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 84.9% | 85.4% | 9th lowest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.6% | 2.7% | 12th lowest |
| Goals off rebounds | 15.7% | 13.1% | 7th highest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 56.2% | 54.1% | 8th highest |
| Goals on the power play | 21.2% | 23.1% | 13th lowest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 241 | 238 | 11th most |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,484 | 3,470 | 15th fewest |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 32.1% | 31.6% | 11th highest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 9.2% | 8.1% | 2nd highest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 15.4% | 13.1% | 7th highest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 23.7% | 23.1% | 15th highest |
Offense: the slot and the rebound. Winnipeg took the tenth-highest share of its shots from the slot and scored a high share of its goals off rebounds. It just did not shoot often: only eight teams took fewer attempts, and the goals total was among the lowest in the league.
Defense: second chances. Opponents shot about an average amount but got more rebound chances than against any team but one. With Hellebuyck, that was survivable. With a new goalie, it is the part to watch.
What it means for scoring. Winnipeg's games averaged 5.91 total goals last season: 2.79 for and 3.12 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings expect a bottom-eight offense, a defense in the middle, and games with fewer goals than average.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 6.54 | 21st | 7.21 | 18th | 4.6 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 8.33 | 26th | 7.92 | 25th | 4.1 |
Both units were weak. The power play ranked 21st by goals and 18th by chances. The penalty kill was 26th by goals and 25th by chances allowed.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Vilardi | PP1 | Net-front finisher | 23 PP points; 13 PP goals, 11th in the NHL |
| Mark Scheifele | PP1 | Bumper and playmaker | 21 PP points; 7 PP goals |
| Kyle Connor | PP1 | The shooter | 19 PP points |
| Josh Morrissey | PP1 | Quarterback at the point | 16 PP points |
| Cole Perfetti | PP1 | Half-wall skill | 6 PP points |
| Dylan Samberg | PK1 | Top penalty-killing defender | 2:21 shorthanded per game |
| Neal Pionk | PK1 | Veteran penalty killer | 2:17 shorthanded per game |
| Morgan Barron | PK1 | Forward pressure | 1:42 shorthanded per game |
| Alex Iafallo | PK1 | Penalty-killing winger | 1:02 shorthanded per game |
| Mario Ferraro | PK2 | New penalty-kill workhorse | 3:16 shorthanded per game, 3rd most in the NHL with San Jose |
How the power play works. Vilardi works the net front, where he scored 13 power-play goals, 11th in the league. Scheifele plays the middle, Connor shoots from the flank, and Morrissey quarterbacks. It is a veteran unit that should score more than last season if the shooting normalizes.
How the penalty kill works. Samberg and Pionk carry the defense, with Barron and Lowry up front. Ferraro, who killed more than three minutes a night in San Jose, third-most in the league, is the key addition.
What to watch. The penalty kill with Ferraro and without Hellebuyck. It needs to improve on its own, because the goalie behind it no longer covers mistakes.
8What would change our view
- HellebuyckA return would lift the rating into the playoff race. A trade for a good goalie or a top young player could do the same over time.
- SkinnerIf he plays like his Pittsburgh stretch, the crease holds up and our number looks low.
- The second lineBjörck and Rosen are the biggest unknowns in the lineup.
- The veteransScheifele, Lowry, DeMelo and Niederreiter are all 33 or older. A sharp decline would hurt quickly.
- FinishingWell below expected last season. A normal shooting year would be worth a few points.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.