Washington Capitals
Washington spent big. The goalie was already the star.
The Capitals missed the playoffs by three points, then traded for Jordan Kyrou and Alex Tuch. The market now prices them as a clear playoff team. Our model sees a middle-of-the-league team on chances, lifted last season by Logan Thompson, and sits about twelve points below the sportsbooks.
The bettor's bottom line
- A middle team, priced like a contender. C rating, 19th in the league, about 90 points over 84 games. The books sit at 101.5. That is one of our biggest disagreements with the market.
- Thompson is the reason Washington wins. He grades A+, one of the best goalies in the league. Charlie Lindgren, the backup, grades C-, and the drop between them is large.
- The new forwards help less than they seem. Kyrou and Tuch are good players, but Washington gave up Connor McMichael, Trevor van Riemsdyk and depth to get there. By our grades the lineup is not better than last season's.
- Ovechkin is 41. He scored 32 goals, but his all-around game grades well below average, and he missed the preseason with a lower-body injury.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 41.4% win / 23.4% draw / 35.2% loss (2.42 / 4.27 / 2.84). On the road 33.9% win / 23.4% draw / 42.7% loss (2.95 / 4.27 / 2.34).
Washington finished last season with 95 points, three short of a playoff spot, and a second straight year of excellent goaltending from Logan Thompson. In late June, general manager Chris Patrick went for it: Jordan Kyrou from St. Louis for Connor McMichael and a first-round pick, Alex Tuch in a sign-and-trade with Buffalo, and Boone Jenner from Columbus. Alex Ovechkin starts his 22nd season at 41.
The common view follows the moves. The Hockey News picks the Capitals second in the Metropolitan behind Carolina, and the sportsbooks have them above 100 points. With Spencer Carbery behind the bench and Thompson in goal, it is easy to see why.
Our answer to the bettor's question, is this a playoff team, is that it is a coin flip at best. On chances, Washington was a league-average team last season, 15th by expected goals. The results were better because Thompson was one of the four best goalies in the league. The new forwards are real upgrades on the top lines, but the team also lost two useful players in the trade and a top-four defenseman, van Riemsdyk, in free agency. Add Rasmus Sandin's ACL recovery and an aging captain, and the rating lands in the middle of the league.
That makes us far cooler than the crowd. The Hockey Writers' worst-case preview points to the backup goalie as the risk; we agree Lindgren is a weak spot, but the bigger issue in our view is that last season's results leaned on one player more than the roster suggests. If Thompson repeats his season, Washington can make the playoffs. The price already assumes it will, and more.
1What last season really was
Washington's 95 points were better than its play.
| Measure | WSH | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 95 | 12th | 4th in the Metropolitan |
| Goals for / against | 261 / 238 | +23 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 50.6% | 15th | Just above even |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 50.5% | 14th | Same after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 49.2% | 17th | About even |
| Finishing, goals above expected | -8.9 | 19th | Below expected |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | +25.1 | 4th | +13.5 in the first half, +11.6 in the second |
On chances, the Capitals were 15th in the league. Their luck-adjusted rating is below the actual one because the goaltending was fourth in the league by goals saved, and nearly all of that was Thompson. The shooters, if anything, scored a little below expected.
Both halves looked the same, 47 and 48 points, with Thompson above expected in every month. That consistency is real, and our model gives him a lot of credit. It also means the team's record depended heavily on one position, which is the kind of dependence that makes a season-long price risky.
2How the model builds Washington's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is about average. Measured on chances rather than results, Washington was a league-average team last season.
Injuries cost the most. Sandin, a regular top-four defenseman, is recovering from ACL surgery, and Ovechkin missed the preseason. No team's rating loses more to expected absences.
The roster is a small step back. Kyrou and Tuch both grade well, but McMichael, van Riemsdyk, Lapierre and Chisholm all left. By our grades, van Riemsdyk alone was one of the team's most valuable defensemen. The net is a small minus.
Age is a small drag. Ovechkin is 41, Jenner 33, Wilson 32.
Finishing and goaltending are a plus. Three seasons of shooting and goaltending together come out above average, because of Thompson.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch | RW | Power forward | Buffalo | 79 GP · 33 G · 66 P | B | Upgrade. A 33-goal two-way winger from Buffalo. Starts on the top line with Dubois and Wilson. |
| Jordan Kyrou | RW | Playmaker | St. Louis | 72 GP · 18 G · 46 P | B+ | Upgrade. A three-time 30-goal scorer who graded B+ in St. Louis. Starts on the third line. |
| Boone Jenner | C | Net-front depth | Columbus | 67 GP · 13 G · 38 P | C | Small. The former Columbus captain, a net-front forward and faceoff center on the fourth line. |
| Vincent Desharnais | D | Shutdown / PK | San Jose | 53 GP · 1 G · 7 P | C- | Small. A big penalty-killing defenseman from San Jose who killed more than three minutes a night. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Duhaime | RW | Energy / physical | Toronto | 82 GP · 4 G · 9 P | D | None. Energy forward, now in Toronto. |
| Connor McMichael | C | Two-way top C | St. Louis | 78 GP · 14 G · 46 P | C- | Loss. A 25-year-old two-way forward with 46 points, the main piece going to St. Louis for Kyrou. |
| Hendrix Lapierre | C | Net-front depth | Pittsburgh | 74 GP · 4 G · 16 P | E- | None. Depth center, now in Pittsburgh. |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk | D | Shutdown / PK | Pittsburgh | 68 GP · 3 G · 14 P | B+ | Real loss. A steady shutdown defenseman who graded B+. Signed in Pittsburgh. |
| Sonny Milano | LW | Playmaker | Unsigned | 31 GP · 4 G · 8 P | D- | None. Depth forward. |
| Declan Chisholm | D | Sheltered puck mover | New Jersey | 26 GP · 1 G · 7 P | D | None. Depth defenseman, now in New Jersey. |
Net: better at the top of the lineup, thinner elsewhere. Kyrou and Tuch add scoring, but the trade cost a young forward and a first-round pick, and the blue line lost van Riemsdyk and, for now, Sandin.
Timothy Liljegren arrived from San Jose in March and played only four games. He starts on the third pair.
Goalies and coach barely move it. Thompson and Lindgren are both back, and Spencer Carbery's record is a small, uncertain plus.
The result is a C team, 19th in the league, projected for about 90 points. That puts Washington between Boston and Los Angeles, and sixth in the Metropolitan. The books expect about twelve points more.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
The top line is new. Tuch joins Pierre-Luc Dubois and Tom Wilson. Wilson grades A-, the highest-rated forward on the roster, after 30 goals and heavy minutes in every situation. Dubois grades B+ after an injury-shortened season. That is a strong, physical top line.
Ovechkin's line. Dylan Strome centers Ovechkin and Ryan Leonard, 21. Strome grades B. Ovechkin still scores, with 32 goals, but grades C-, because the rest of his game has faded. Leonard scored 20 as a rookie but grades D+.
Kyrou on the third line. Kyrou joins Aliaksei Protas, who grades B- after 25 goals, and his younger brother Ilya Protas, 20, at center. It is a dangerous third line if Ilya holds the middle. Jenner, Sourdif and Beauvillier make up a sturdy fourth.
The blue line is thinner. Jakob Chychrun scored 26 goals and grades C+; Matt Roy grades B beside him. Cole Hutson, 20, and Desharnais form the second pair, and Fehervary and Liljegren the third. Without Sandin and van Riemsdyk, the top four ranks around the middle of the league.
4Who matters most
Thompson is the player the price depends on most, by a wide margin. He was above expected in every month last season, and the drop to Lindgren is one of the largest in the league in our projection. On nights Thompson rests, Washington looks like a below-average team.
Among skaters, Wilson and Roy matter most. Wilson plays in every situation, and Roy is the steadiest defender left after van Riemsdyk's departure. When a big-minute defenseman sits, his ice time goes to someone worse, and with Sandin out, the depth is thin. On game day, check the goalie first.
5Goaltending: Thompson carries it
Logan Thompson was above expected in all seven months last season and saved about 29 goals more than an average goalie would have, one of the best totals in the league. Charlie Lindgren, the backup, was below expected in most months and finished with a .879 save percentage.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | +0.9 (3) | +0.6 (6) | -1.0 (4) | -2.6 (5) | -1.2 (1) | +2.2 (1) | -4.3 (1) | -5.4 |
| Logan Thompson | +7.4 (8) | +5.4 (10) | +2.9 (10) | +1.0 (10) | +5.5 (3) | +6.0 (12) | +1.1 (5) | +29.3 |
Our projection weighs three seasons and grades Thompson A+, among the best goalies in the league. Lindgren grades C-. The common view is that the backup is the risk; we agree, and add that Thompson repeating a season this good is less likely than the price assumes.
Washington has 14 back-to-back sets, more than most teams, so Lindgren will start a real share of games. Those nights carry one of the bigger discounts in the league. Confirm the starter before you bet.
6Washington's system: how they score and defend
Spencer Carbery's teams grind: they block shots, hit little and defend the slot. Last season's Capitals were close to average in shot volume at both ends. They got to the slot a lot and scored more off rebounds than all but two teams.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Grind / defend-first | Grind / defend-first (three seasons here) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | -0.3 SD | A few fewer shots than average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | +0.3 SD | A few more shots against than average |
| Blocked shots per 60 | +0.7 SD | Blocks many more than average |
| Hits per 60 | -0.6 SD | Few hits |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | A small, uncertain plus |
| Measure | WSH | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 236 | 238 | 16th most |
| Shot attempts | 3,509 | 3,470 | 15th most |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 85.2% | 85.4% | 15th lowest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.7% | 2.7% | 16th highest |
| Goals off rebounds | 18.6% | 13.1% | 3rd highest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 53.8% | 54.1% | 14th lowest |
| Goals on the power play | 19.9% | 23.1% | 9th lowest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 226 | 238 | 10th fewest |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,552 | 3,470 | 14th most |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 32.2% | 31.6% | 9th highest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 8.0% | 8.1% | 14th lowest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 12.4% | 13.1% | 13th lowest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 24.8% | 23.1% | 11th highest |
Offense: the net front. Washington took the seventh-highest share of its attempts from the slot and scored the third-highest share of its goals off rebounds. That suits Wilson, Ovechkin and now Jenner. The power play was a weakness, scoring a low share of the team's goals.
Defense: Thompson's safety net. Opponents took an average number of shots, a slightly above-average share from the slot, and few rush chances. Only nine teams allowed fewer goals, most of that thanks to the goalie.
What it means for scoring. Washington's games averaged 6.09 total goals last season: 3.18 for and 2.90 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings expect a top-ten offense, a defense below the middle once goaltending luck is removed, and games a little more open than average.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 6.18 | 25th | 6.89 | 25th | 4.6 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 7.38 | 19th | 7.35 | 15th | 4.9 |
Both units were below average. The power play ranked 25th by goals and by chances, a weak unit on both counts. The penalty kill was 19th by goals and 15th by chances allowed.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Strome | PP1 | Half-wall playmaker | 20 PP points; 6 PP goals |
| Alex Ovechkin | PP1 | One-timer from his office | 17 PP points; 5 PP goals |
| Jakob Chychrun | PP1 | Shooting quarterback | 17 PP points; 8 PP goals |
| Tom Wilson | PP1, PK1 | Net-front and penalty killer | 11 PP points; 7 PP goals; 2:03 shorthanded per game |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | PP1 | Bumper in the slot | 6 PP points |
| Ryan Leonard | PP2 | Second-unit shooter | 13 PP points |
| Jordan Kyrou | PP2 | New second-unit playmaker | 13 PP points with St. Louis |
| Vincent Desharnais | PK1 | Penalty-kill workhorse | 3:07 shorthanded per game, 4th most in the NHL with San Jose |
| Martin Fehervary | PK1 | Shutdown defender | 2:45 shorthanded per game, 15th most in the NHL |
| Aliaksei Protas | PK1 | Lead penalty-killing forward | 1:51 shorthanded per game |
| Matt Roy | PK2 | Second-unit penalty killer | 2:27 shorthanded per game |
How the power play works. Strome runs it from the half-wall with 20 power-play points, and Ovechkin still shoots from his spot, with five power-play goals. Chychrun is a shooting quarterback, with eight power-play goals, and Wilson works the net front. Kyrou and Tuch give the second unit real skill for the first time in years.
How the penalty kill works. Desharnais, who killed more than three minutes a night in San Jose, joins Fehervary on the back end, with Wilson and Protas up front. Van Riemsdyk was a regular and left.
What to watch. The power play with Kyrou and Tuch. It was bottom-eight by chances, and the new forwards are the most likely way for the trade to pay off quickly.
8What would change our view
- ThompsonA repeat of last season makes Washington a playoff team. A normal season makes it a bubble team at best.
- Ovechkin's healthHe missed the preseason at 41. His goals still matter on the power play.
- Sandin's returnFrom ACL surgery, likely later in the fall. It restores the top four.
- The power playWith Kyrou and Tuch, it should improve from the bottom eight. If it does not, the trade looks worse.
- Ilya ProtasA 20-year-old center on the third line. His growth decides how deep the forward group is.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.