Utah Mammoth
Utah bought veterans. It also lost its best defender.
Utah made the playoffs for the first time last spring and spent the summer adding Vincent Trocheck and Anders Lee. The market expects another step. Our model sees a middle-of-the-league team that lost more on the blue line than it gained up front, and sits a few points below the sportsbooks.
The bettor's bottom line
- A bubble team, priced a little high. C rating, 15th in the league, about 93 points over 84 games. The books sit at 96.5. We have Utah as a coin flip for the playoffs, not a lock.
- The forwards are deep. Keller, Schmaltz, Guenther and now Trocheck give Utah a top-eight group of top-six forwards by our grades.
- Vejmelka carries a heavy load. He grades B-, a solid starter who played 64 games last season. The backup, 23-year-old Sebastian Cossa, has less than one NHL game.
- The blue line got weaker. Ian Cole, who graded A- as a shutdown defenseman, left for Chicago. Opponents already scored a lot off rebounds and in the slot.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 42.3% win / 23.4% draw / 34.3% loss (2.37 / 4.27 / 2.91). On the road 34.8% win / 23.4% draw / 41.8% loss (2.88 / 4.27 / 2.39).
Utah's second NHL season ended with its first playoff games. The Mammoth won the first home playoff game in state history, took a 2-1 series lead on Vegas, then lost three straight to the eventual Western Conference champion. It was a real step for a young franchise.
The summer was about the next one. Vincent Trocheck came from the Rangers to add a two-way center, Anders Lee from the Islanders to add a net-front scorer, and Sebastian Cossa, one of the top goalie prospects in the game, from Detroit. Andre Tourigny signed a new contract. The Hockey News ranked Utah's offseason among the five best in the league.
The bettor's question is whether that makes Utah better. Our answer is no, not by much. On chances, Utah was a slightly above-average team last season, a touch unlucky. The additions are good, but they are 33 and 36. The team also lost Ian Cole, JJ Peterka, Sean Durzi and Alex Kerfoot, and Cole, a shutdown defenseman, was one of its most valuable players by our grades. Only five teams lost more lineup quality this summer. The net result is a team that looks like last season's, not a better one.
That makes us cooler than the crowd. VSiN's preview likes the over on 96.5 points, and most previews expect Utah back in the playoffs. We would not bet the over. The common story is a deeper forward group, and we agree it is deep. The part that gets less attention is the defense, which gave up a lot of dangerous second chances even before Cole left.
1What last season really was
Utah's 92 points were about what its play deserved.
| Measure | UTA | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 92 | 15th | 4th in the Central |
| Goals for / against | 268 / 240 | +28 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 50.7% | 14th | Just above even |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 51.2% | 10th | Top ten after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 52.2% | 6th | About even |
| Finishing, goals above expected | +6.5 | 10th | Above expected |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | +14.0 | 10th | +2.1 in the first half, +11.9 in the second |
On chances, Utah was 14th in the league, and tenth after our recalibration of shot quality. The luck-adjusted rating is slightly higher than the actual one. Shooting and goaltending were both above average, in the top ten of the league.
The second half was clearly better than the first, 51 points to 41, and most of that came with Vejmelka's big January. Utah has only two seasons of history, and its shooting swung from far below expected in the first to above it last season, so our model does not lean on either.
2How the model builds Utah's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is above average. Measured on chances rather than results, Utah was a playoff-level team last season, a little better than its record.
The roster lost more than it gained. Trocheck and Lee both grade B, but Cole graded A-, and Peterka, Durzi and Kerfoot were regulars. Only five teams lost more lineup quality this summer, and this is the biggest reason the rating falls.
Age is neutral. Cooley, Guenther and Simashev are young, and the new veterans balance them out.
The crease costs a little. Vitek Vanecek was a below-average backup, but Cossa grades even lower on a very short record.
Finishing and goaltending over three seasons are neutral.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Cossa | G | Goalie | DET (trade, No. 23 pick) | No NHL games last season | E- | Question mark. A top goalie prospect with less than one NHL game, acquired from Detroit and signed for two years. |
| Anders Lee | LW | Sniper | NY Islanders | 82 GP · 19 G · 42 P | B | Upgrade. The longtime Islanders captain, a net-front scorer with 19 goals. Starts on the second line at 36. |
| Andrew Peeke | D | Shutdown / PK | Boston | 77 GP · 5 G · 14 P | D | Small. A physical defensive defenseman from Boston for the third pair. |
| Vincent Trocheck | C | Two-way top C | NY Rangers | 67 GP · 16 G · 53 P | B | Upgrade. A two-way center with 53 points for the Rangers who kills penalties. Starts on the top line. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Peterka | RW | Middle-six all-rounder | Boston | 82 GP · 25 G · 47 P | C- | Loss. Scored 25 goals, though his all-around game graded low. Now in Boston. |
| Ian Cole | D | Shutdown / PK | Chicago | 82 GP · 3 G · 23 P | A- | Real loss. A shutdown defenseman who graded A- and played all 82 games. Signed in Chicago. |
| Sean Durzi | D | Sheltered puck mover | NY Rangers | 60 GP · 5 G · 27 P | C- | Small loss. A puck-moving defenseman, now with the Rangers. |
| Alexander Kerfoot | C | Defensive C / PK | Nashville | 34 GP · 7 G · 13 P | C+ | Small loss. A two-way forward and penalty killer, now in Nashville. |
| Vitek Vanecek | G | Goalie | NY Islanders | 22 GP · -2.0 GSAx | D- | Small. A below-average backup, now with the Islanders. |
Net: a small step back. Utah added two good veterans up front and lost its best defensive defenseman and three regulars. The forwards are deeper; the blue line is thinner.
MacKenzie Weegar arrived from Calgary at the March deadline and played 19 games. A full season of him on the top pair is a small plus.
Goalies and coach barely move it. Vejmelka is back as the starter, and Tourigny's record is close to neutral.
The result is a C team, 15th in the league, projected for about 93 points. That puts Utah between Detroit and Columbus, and fourth in the Central behind Colorado, Dallas and Minnesota. The books expect about three points more.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
Keller leads the top line. Clayton Keller grades A- after 88 points, and Nick Schmaltz scored 33 goals and grades B. Trocheck joins them on the right side, with the faceoff and penalty-kill skills the line lacked.
Guenther and Cooley are the future. Dylan Guenther scored 40 goals at 22 and grades B. Logan Cooley, 22, centers him after 24 goals in 54 games; he grades C+ because his defensive play is still behind his offense. Lee adds a net-front presence on the left.
Hayton is the quiet strength. Barrett Hayton grades B+ as a two-way center, better than his 25 points suggest, and centers a heavy third line with Lawson Crouse and Jack McBain. By our grades the top six ranks eighth in the league.
The blue line is the question. Mikhail Sergachev grades B- and plays more than 24 minutes. John Marino grades B and Nate Schmidt B-. Weegar grades C on the top pair, and Dmitri Simashev, 21, and Peeke round it out. Without Cole, the top four ranks around the middle of the league.
4Who matters most
Sergachev is the player the price depends on most. He plays the most minutes, on both special teams, and the defense has no one else who can handle that load. When a big-minute defenseman sits, his ice time goes to someone worse, and on this blue line that drop is real.
The goalie matters just as much. Vejmelka played 64 games last season, and the drop to Cossa is large. On game day, check the starter first.
5Goaltending: one workhorse, one prospect
Karel Vejmelka carried the crease last season, with 64 games. He was above expected overall, driven by a superb January, and close to average in most other months. Vitek Vanecek, the backup, was below expected and left for the Islanders.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka | +1.7 (8) | -3.0 (11) | +0.1 (10) | +10.6 (13) | +1.9 (4) | -1.6 (11) | -2.8 (7) | +6.9 |
| Vitek Vanecek | +2.2 (3) | -4.4 (4) | -1.2 (5) | +2.1 (2) | 0.0 (6) | -0.7 (2) | -2.0 |
Our projection weighs three seasons and grades Vejmelka B-, a solid starter. Cossa, 23, has been one of the top goalie prospects for years, but with less than one NHL game our projection pulls him hard toward the bottom and grades him E-. The common view is that the young goalie is ready. Our numbers need to see it first.
Utah has only 10 back-to-back sets, so Cossa may play less than most backups. When he does start, the price should lean against Utah until he proves himself. Confirm the starter before you bet.
6Utah's system: how they score and defend
Andre Tourigny's teams have no strong signature beyond few hits, and last season's Mammoth were balanced: close to even on shots, few attempts against, and an ordinary share from the slot. The weakness was second chances. Opponents scored off rebounds more than against any team but one.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Balanced, no strong signature | Balanced, no strong signature (five seasons with this franchise) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | -0.2 SD | About average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | -0.0 SD | About average |
| Blocked shots per 60 | -0.4 SD | Blocks a little less than average |
| Hits per 60 | -0.8 SD | Few hits |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | A small minus, within the noise |
| Measure | UTA | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 249 | 238 | 14th most |
| Shot attempts | 3,508 | 3,470 | 16th most |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 86.5% | 85.4% | 2nd highest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.8% | 2.7% | 13th highest |
| Goals off rebounds | 10.8% | 13.1% | 7th lowest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 54.2% | 54.1% | 16th lowest |
| Goals on the power play | 18.9% | 23.1% | 5th lowest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 229 | 238 | 12th fewest |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,271 | 3,470 | 6th fewest |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 31.6% | 31.6% | 16th highest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6th highest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 18.3% | 13.1% | 2nd highest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 24.9% | 23.1% | 10th highest |
Offense: settled plays, few second chances. Utah took the second-highest share of its attempts from settled play and the third-fewest rebound attempts. It scored a low share of its goals on the power play. The goals came from skill at even strength, which Trocheck and Lee should add to.
Defense: fine until the rebound. Opponents took few shots, but got a lot of rebounds and rush chances, and scored from the slot more than against all but three teams. Cole's departure makes this the area to watch.
What it means for scoring. Utah's games averaged 6.20 total goals last season: 3.27 for and 2.93 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings expect an offense just above the middle, a top-seven defense, and games close to the league average.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 6.93 | 18th | 7.85 | 10th | 4.4 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 6.92 | 13th | 7.88 | 22nd | 4.8 |
The power play created more than it scored: tenth by chances but 18th by goals. The penalty kill was the reverse, 13th by goals and 22nd by chances allowed.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mikhail Sergachev | PP1, PK1 | Quarterback at the point | 24 PP points; 5 PP goals; 2:42 shorthanded per game |
| Clayton Keller | PP1 | Half-wall playmaker | 23 PP points |
| Dylan Guenther | PP1 | The one-timer | 22 PP points; 8 PP goals |
| Nick Schmaltz | PP1, PK1 | Bumper and finisher | 18 PP points; 11 PP goals; 1:25 shorthanded per game |
| Logan Cooley | PP1 | Net front and flank | 9 PP points; 6 PP goals |
| Vincent Trocheck | PP2 | New second-unit center | 14 PP points with the Rangers |
| Lawson Crouse | PK1 | Penalty-kill workhorse | 2:37 shorthanded per game |
| MacKenzie Weegar | PK1 | Shutdown defender | 1:41 shorthanded per game |
| Nate Schmidt | PK2 | Second-unit penalty killer | 1:52 shorthanded per game |
How the power play works. Sergachev quarterbacks with 24 power-play points, Keller makes plays from the half-wall with 23, and Guenther shoots, with eight power-play goals. Schmaltz led the team with 11 from the middle. Trocheck adds a veteran center to the second unit.
How the penalty kill works. Sergachev and Crouse carry the most minutes, with Weegar on defense. Cole and Kerfoot were regular penalty killers and both left, so Trocheck, a strong penalty killer in New York, becomes important here.
What to watch. The penalty kill without Cole. It already gave up more chances than most, and losing its best shutdown defenseman could push it down the rankings.
8What would change our view
- The blue lineA trade for a shutdown defenseman would fix the one clear hole and lift the rating.
- CossaIf he is ready, Utah has a real tandem. If not, Vejmelka faces another heavy load.
- Cooley and GuentherAnother step from the two 22-year-olds is where Utah's upside lives.
- The veteransTrocheck is 33 and Lee 36. Both need to hold their level for the forward depth to matter.
- The power playTop ten in chances, 18th in goals. Better finishing there would be worth a few points.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.