Tampa Bay Lightning
Still elite. The clock is the only question.
Tampa Bay had the Hart Trophy winner, the top goalie in our projection and a top-five team on chances, then lost in the first round for the third year in a row. Our model has the Lightning third in the league and best in the Atlantic, several points above the sportsbooks. The risk is an old blue line.
The bettor's bottom line
- A top-three team, priced a little low. A rating, 3rd in the league, about 110 points over 84 games. The books sit at 104.5, below us.
- Kucherov and Vasilevskiy drive it. The Hart Trophy winner grades A with 130 points, and Vasilevskiy grades A++, at the top of our goalie projection. Few teams have two players like that.
- The backup matters more than usual. The gap from Vasilevskiy to Dennis Hildeby is one of the largest in the league. Check the starter on every back-to-back.
- The blue line is old. Carlson is 36, McDonagh 37, Hedman 35. The rating counts on them holding up for one more year.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 53.2% win / 22.3% draw / 24.4% loss (1.88 / 4.48 / 4.09). On the road 45.6% win / 23.3% draw / 31.1% loss (2.19 / 4.29 / 3.22).
Nikita Kucherov won the Hart Trophy last season with 130 points. Andrei Vasilevskiy saved almost 25 goals more than an average goalie would have. Tampa Bay finished with 106 points, second in the Atlantic. And for the third spring in a row, the Lightning went out in the first round, this time to Montreal in seven games.
The summer was a reload rather than a rebuild. John Carlson, 36, signed for two years after his playoff run in Anaheim, and Ilya Mikheyev came from Chicago. Darren Raddysh, a 70-point defenseman, left in a sign-and-trade with Toronto, and Nick Paul went there too, in the trade that brought in backup goalie Dennis Hildeby. Yanni Gourde is out until December after hip surgery.
For bettors, the question is the one asked every fall: is this the year the core finally slows down? Our answer is not yet. On chances, Tampa Bay was the fourth-best team in the league, and its results matched its play. The lineup adds up to more than last season's, because Carlson and a full year of Victor Hedman outweigh Raddysh. Age takes some of that back. The Lightning still come out as one of the three best teams in the league.
That makes us warmer than the market. Daily Faceoff's preview notes the worry that the core is over the hill after three straight early exits. Our model does not care about playoff series; it cares about how the team plays over 82 games, and that has not dropped. The real risk is the blue line: three of the top defensemen are 35 or older, and a long injury to any of them would hurt.
1What last season really was
Tampa Bay's 106 points were earned on the ice.
| Measure | TBL | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 106 | 5th | 2nd in the Atlantic |
| Goals for / against | 286 / 229 | +57 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 54.1% | 4th | Fourth in the league |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 53.6% | 5th | Top five after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 53.0% | 4th | Well above even |
| Finishing, goals above expected | +1.6 | 13th | Slightly above expected |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | +12.5 | 11th | +11.2 in the first half, +1.3 in the second |
On chances, the Lightning were fourth in the league, and their luck-adjusted rating is a little above the actual one. Shooting was close to expected, which is unusual for a team with Kucherov and Guentzel. The goaltending was well above average, driven by Vasilevskiy's November and January.
Both halves were identical, 53 points each. Nothing about this season looks like a fluke. Tampa Bay has scored above expected in four of the last five seasons and gotten good goaltending in four of them, and our model gives the team credit for both.
2How the model builds Tampa Bay's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is near the top. Measured on chances rather than results, Tampa Bay was a top-five team last season.
The roster got better. Carlson grades A- and Mikheyev B-, and Hedman, who played only 33 games last season, is healthy. Raddysh and Bjorkstrand are real losses, but the net is a clear gain. Only four teams added more lineup quality this summer.
Finishing and the crease are a plus. Three seasons of shooting and goaltending together come out among the best in the league, mostly because of Vasilevskiy.
Age is the drag. Kucherov is 33, Carlson 36, Hedman 35, McDonagh 37 and Girgensons 32. Only eight teams have an older lineup, and older teams tend to decline the next season.
Gourde's injury costs a little. He grades B as a defensive center and misses the first two months.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Hildeby | G | Goalie | Toronto | 20 GP · +10.5 GSAx | D+ | Upgrade on paper. A 6-foot-7 goalie from Toronto who was well above expected in 20 games. Replaces Jonas Johansson. |
| Ilya Mikheyev | RW | Net-front depth | Chicago | 76 GP · 18 G · 36 P | B- | Upgrade. A fast two-way winger with 18 goals in Chicago. Starts on Point and Kucherov's line. |
| John Carlson | D | Offensive / PP QB | Anaheim | 71 GP · 14 G · 60 P | A- | Clear upgrade. A 60-point defenseman who still grades A- at 36. Runs the power play. |
| Jeffrey Viel | LW | Net-front depth | Anaheim | 45 GP · 3 G · 10 P | D+ | Small. A physical depth forward from Anaheim. |
| Jansen Harkins | C | Energy / physical | Anaheim | 44 GP · 3 G · 8 P | E | None. Fourth-line depth from Anaheim. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | RW | Playmaker | NY Rangers | 80 GP · 12 G · 32 P | C+ | Loss. A middle-six winger with 32 points, now with the Rangers. |
| Darren Raddysh | D | Offensive / PP QB | Toronto | 73 GP · 22 G · 70 P | B- | Real loss. Scored 22 goals and 70 points from the blue line. Sign-and-trade to Toronto. |
| Nick Paul | C | Net-front depth | Toronto | 51 GP · 7 G · 15 P | C- | Small loss. A checking center, traded to Toronto for Hildeby. |
| Declan Carlile | D | Physical depth | Pittsburgh | 42 GP · 1 G · 3 P | E | None. Depth defenseman, now in Pittsburgh. |
| Corey Perry | RW | Middle-six all-rounder | Los Angeles | 22 GP · 6 G · 9 P | C- | None. Deadline rental, back in Los Angeles. |
| Mitchell Chaffee | RW | Energy / physical | NY Islanders | 11 GP · 0 G · 1 P | n/a | None. Depth forward. |
Net: an upgrade. Carlson for Raddysh is roughly even on the power play and better at even strength, Mikheyev adds speed and penalty killing, and a healthy Hedman is like a new signing. The price is an even older blue line.
Goalies and coach barely move it. Vasilevskiy is back, the backup change is small in the model, and Jon Cooper's long record is a small plus.
The result is an A team, 3rd in the league, projected for about 110 points. That puts Tampa Bay between Carolina and Ottawa, and first in the Atlantic. The books are about five and a half points lower.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
Kucherov is still the best player on the ice. He grades A after 44 goals and 130 points, and plays with Brayden Point and Mikheyev. Point grades B- after an injury-shortened season. The Hart Trophy is realistic again if Kucherov stays healthy.
The second line may be the better one. Brandon Hagel grades A+, the highest score on the roster, after 36 goals and top penalty-kill minutes. Jake Guentzel, 38 goals and 88 points, grades A-, and Anthony Cirelli B+ as a two-way center. By our grades the top six ranks second in the league.
The bottom six is thin. With Gourde out, Zemgus Girgensons centers the third line, and the fourth is built on role players like Harkins and Viel. Gage Goncalves, 33 points, is the one depth forward who can score.
The blue line is old and good. Carlson grades A- and Ryan McDonagh A-. Hedman grades B-, J.J. Moser C+. Max Crozier and Erik Cernak round it out. The top four ranks around the middle of the league by our grades, mostly because of its age profile.
4Who matters most
Vasilevskiy is the player the price depends on most. The drop to Hildeby is one of the biggest starter-to-backup gaps in the league in our projection. On nights he rests, Tampa Bay looks like a good team, not an elite one.
Among skaters, Kucherov and Hagel matter most up front, and Carlson on the blue line. When a big-minute defenseman sits, his ice time goes to someone worse, and with three defensemen over 35, that will happen. On game day, check the goalie first.
5Goaltending: the elite piece
Andrei Vasilevskiy was far above expected in November and January and close to it in most other months. He saved almost 25 goals more than an average goalie would have. Jonas Johansson, the backup, was below expected in six of seven months and has been waived.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | +0.1 (8) | +8.9 (10) | +0.9 (6) | +12.6 (10) | -3.6 (5) | +3.2 (13) | +2.5 (6) | +24.6 |
| Jonas Johansson | -1.4 (3) | -1.1 (5) | +3.3 (8) | -3.1 (3) | -1.7 (2) | -5.6 (3) | -0.8 (1) | -10.4 |
Our projection weighs three seasons and grades Vasilevskiy A++, at the very top of the league. The common view agrees he is elite. Dennis Hildeby, 25, was very good in 20 games in Toronto, but our projection grades him D+ because his record is short and young goalies get pulled toward average.
Tampa Bay has 13 back-to-back sets. Hildeby will start most second legs, and those nights carry a real discount. Confirm the starter before you bet.
6Tampa Bay's system: how they score and defend
Jon Cooper's teams suppress shots, and last season's Lightning did it well. Only four teams allowed fewer attempts, and opponents rarely got to the slot. At the other end, Tampa Bay scored the fourth-most goals in the league.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Shot suppression (structure) | Shot suppression (more than a decade here) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | +0.3 SD | A few more shots than average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | -0.8 SD | Far fewer shots against than average |
| Blocked shots per 60 | -0.4 SD | Blocks a little less than average |
| Hits per 60 | -0.1 SD | About average |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | A long career with a small, uncertain plus |
| Measure | TBL | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 267 | 238 | 4th most |
| Shot attempts | 3,530 | 3,470 | 14th most |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 84.6% | 85.4% | 6th lowest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.7% | 2.7% | 15th highest |
| Goals off rebounds | 12.0% | 13.1% | 14th lowest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 56.9% | 54.1% | 6th highest |
| Goals on the power play | 20.6% | 23.1% | 11th lowest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 216 | 238 | 3rd fewest |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,258 | 3,470 | 5th fewest |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 29.7% | 31.6% | 5th lowest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 8.0% | 8.1% | 16th highest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 11.1% | 13.1% | 11th lowest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 23.1% | 23.1% | 16th lowest |
Offense: talent in the slot. Tampa Bay took an above-average share of its shots from the slot and scored a high share of its goals there. It also created the fifth-most rebound chances. The power play did less than it should have, scoring a below-average share of the team's goals.
Defense: nothing easy. Opponents took few shots and a low share from the slot, and only two teams allowed fewer goals. The one leak was rush chances, where Tampa Bay allowed more than most.
What it means for scoring. Tampa Bay's games averaged 6.28 total goals last season: 3.49 for and 2.79 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings expect a top-three offense and a top-four defense, with games close to the league average in total goals.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 7.03 | 17th | 7.11 | 20th | 4.8 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 6.23 | 5th | 7.25 | 13th | 4.8 |
The penalty kill was a strength, fifth by goals and 13th by chances allowed. The power play was surprisingly ordinary for this much talent: 17th by goals and 20th by chances.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | PP1 | The playmaker | 33 PP points, 6th in the NHL; 8 PP goals |
| Jake Guentzel | PP1 | Net-front finisher | 28 PP points, 13th in the NHL; 8 PP goals |
| Brayden Point | PP1 | Bumper and shooter | 11 PP points; 6 PP goals |
| Brandon Hagel | PP1, PK1 | Two-way threat | 9 PP points; 2:09 shorthanded per game |
| John Carlson | PP1 | Quarterback at the point | 9 PP points with Anaheim |
| Ryan McDonagh | PK1 | Penalty-kill anchor | 2:50 shorthanded per game, 13th most in the NHL |
| Anthony Cirelli | PK1 | Lead penalty-killing center | 2:28 shorthanded per game |
| Erik Cernak | PK1 | Shot blocker | 2:28 shorthanded per game |
| Ilya Mikheyev | PK2 | New penalty killer | 2:30 shorthanded per game with Chicago |
How the power play works. Kucherov runs it with 33 power-play points, sixth in the league, and Guentzel works the net front with 28. Point plays the bumper, Hagel the flank, and Carlson takes over the point from Raddysh. With that personnel, a middle-of-the-pack unit should improve.
How the penalty kill works. McDonagh, Cirelli and Cernak are the regulars, with Hagel up front. Mikheyev, who killed two and a half minutes a night in Chicago, adds another forward. Gourde, a regular, is out until December.
What to watch. The power play with Carlson on the point. If it moves into the top ten, the Lightning have a clear path to the best record in the East.
8What would change our view
- Vasilevskiy's healthThe biggest single swing in the rating. Nothing behind him comes close.
- The old blue lineCarlson, McDonagh and Hedman are all 35 or older. A long injury to any of them thins the defense fast.
- Kucherov at 33A drop from 130 points is likely; a drop to 90 would change the team.
- Gourde's returnIn December, it deepens the bottom six and the penalty kill.
- The power playTop-ten talent and a middle-of-the-pack result. It should improve.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.