St. Louis Blues
Hofer saved the spring. The rest needs time.
St. Louis turned a bad first half into a respectable 86 points on the back of Joel Hofer's hot finish. Then it traded Jordan Kyrou for younger pieces. Our model has the Blues as a bottom-seven team, almost exactly where the sportsbooks have them, with low-scoring games along the way.
The bettor's bottom line
- A bottom-seven team, fairly priced. D+ rating, 26th in the league, about 85 points over 84 games. The books sit at 85.5. No quarrel with the total.
- Thomas and Broberg carry it. Robert Thomas grades A and Philip Broberg A-. After them, the drop is steep, and Kyrou's scoring left with the trade.
- Hofer is the starter now. He grades B, a solid #1. Jordan Binnington, 33, grades C after a rough season, and the gap between them matters on the nights Hofer sits.
- Low totals. St. Louis took the second-fewest shot attempts in the league. Our scoring ratings expect a bottom-five offense, a top-ten defense and some of the lowest-scoring games in the league.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 37.6% win / 23.3% draw / 39.1% loss (2.66 / 4.29 / 2.55). On the road 30.1% win / 23.3% draw / 46.6% loss (3.32 / 4.30 / 2.15).
At the Olympic break, the Blues were near the bottom of the West and their goaltending had given away more than 20 goals. After it, Joel Hofer went 12-2-2 with a .933 save percentage, and St. Louis took 48 points in the second half, ten more than in the first. It was not enough for the playoffs, but it changed the conversation in town.
In June, the front office used it to reshape the forward group. Jordan Kyrou went to Washington for Connor McMichael, the 16th pick in the draft and a prospect. Mason McTavish arrived from Anaheim, and Brandon Carlo and Justin Barron joined the blue line. The idea is a younger team around Robert Thomas, Philip Broberg, Jimmy Snuggerud and Dalibor Dvorsky.
For bettors, the question is whether the second half was the real Blues. Our answer is no. On chances, St. Louis was 25th in the league for the whole season, and the late surge came almost entirely from the goaltending. The shooting was good, and has been for years, which our model credits. But Kyrou was one of the team's best players, and the replacements grade lower. That keeps the Blues near the bottom of the league.
That puts us in line with the market and a little cooler than the local optimism. The common hope is that Thomas and Broberg lead, the kids take a step and the team sneaks into a wild card. McTavish is the popular breakout pick after two first-round picks were spent on him. Our grades are cautious on him: he graded poorly away from the puck in Anaheim, so a breakout would have to come in more than goals.
1What last season really was
St. Louis's 86 points were a little better than its play.
| Measure | STL | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 86 | 22nd | 5th in the Central |
| Goals for / against | 230 / 254 | -24 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 47.4% | 25th | Bottom eight |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 47.7% | 24th | Bottom nine after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 47.5% | 27th | Below even |
| Finishing, goals above expected | +8.0 | 7th | Top seven |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | -7.2 | 24th | -22.2 in the first half, +15.0 in the second |
On chances, the Blues were 25th in the league, and the luck-adjusted rating is a bit below the actual one. Finishing was well above expected, seventh in the league, while the goaltending was below average over the year: terrible in the first half, very good in the second.
The finishing is a real pattern. St. Louis has scored above expected in four of the last five seasons, twice by huge margins, so our model keeps a good share of it. The goaltending swing is different. A second half that good tends to settle back toward average, even for a goalie who has earned the job.
2How the model builds St. Louis's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is near the bottom. Measured on chances rather than results, St. Louis was a bottom-eight team last season.
The roster lost a lot. Kyrou graded A-, one of the best forwards on the team. McMichael, McTavish, Carlo and Barron are useful, but none grades above C. Only three teams lost more lineup quality this summer.
Finishing is a plus. Three seasons of shooting and goaltending together come out above average, mostly because of the shooting.
Age is a small plus. Snuggerud, Dvorsky, Lindstein and McTavish are all 23 or younger, and young teams tend to improve.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McMichael | C | Two-way top C | Washington | 78 GP · 14 G · 46 P | C | Small. A 25-year-old two-way forward, the main return for Kyrou. Starts on the second-line wing. |
| Mason McTavish | C | Sniper | Anaheim | 75 GP · 17 G · 41 P | C- | Question mark. A former third-overall pick with 17 goals in Anaheim, handed the second-line center job. |
| Ross Johnston | LW | Energy / physical | Anaheim | 62 GP · 3 G · 14 P | E- | None. Enforcer from Anaheim, likely an extra. |
| Brandon Carlo | D | Shutdown / PK | Toronto | 55 GP · 0 G · 7 P | C- | Small. A big defensive defenseman from Toronto who kills penalties. |
| Justin Barron | D | Sheltered puck mover | NSH (waivers) | 52 GP · 0 G · 9 P | C | Small. Claimed off waivers from Nashville and pushed onto the top pair by Mailloux's injury. |
| Dillon Dube | LW | Middle-six all-rounder | Free agent | No NHL games last season | n/a | None. A depth forward back in the NHL after two seasons away. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Kyrou | RW | Playmaker | Washington | 72 GP · 18 G · 46 P | A- | Real loss. A 46-point playmaker who graded A-. Traded to Washington for McMichael and the 16th pick. |
| Otto Stenberg | C | Net-front depth | Unsigned | 32 GP · 3 G · 10 P | C- | None. Young depth forward. |
| Matthew Kessel | D | Sheltered puck mover | NY Islanders | 29 GP · 2 G · 3 P | D- | None. Depth defenseman, now with the Islanders. |
Net: a clear step back now, a younger team later. St. Louis traded one of its best forwards for a useful player, a first-round pick and a prospect, and added defensive depth.
Jonatan Berggren arrived from Detroit in December and played 36 games, and Jack Finley came from Tampa Bay in February. A full season of Berggren on the third line is a small plus.
Goalies and coach barely move it. Hofer and Binnington are both back, and Jim Montgomery's record is close to neutral.
The result is a D+ team, 26th in the league, projected for about 85 points. That puts St. Louis between the Islanders and San Jose, and sixth in the Central ahead of Chicago and Nashville. The books agree to within a point.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
Thomas is the engine. Robert Thomas grades A as a two-way center, with 64 points in 64 games. Dylan Holloway, 22 goals in 59 games, grades B+ on his left, and Jimmy Snuggerud, 22, scored 21 goals on the right. That is a real top line.
The second line is new and unproven. McTavish centers McMichael and Pavel Buchnevich. Buchnevich grades B, but McTavish grades C- and McMichael C. This is where Kyrou's loss shows most.
The kids and the checkers. Dvorsky, 21, centers Jake Neighbours and Berggren. Pius Suter grades B as a defensive center on the fourth line, an unusually strong player for that slot. By our grades the forward group ranks near the bottom of the league.
The blue line is Broberg and Parayko. Broberg grades A- and plays more than 23 minutes a night. Colton Parayko grades B- as a shutdown defenseman. With Mailloux out after hand surgery, Barron moves up next to Broberg, and the top four ranks near the bottom of the league.
4Who matters most
Thomas is the player the price depends on most. He centers the top line, plays in every situation, and there is no second center close to his level. When he sits, McTavish or Dvorsky takes top-line minutes, and the offense has little to spare.
On defense, Broberg matters more than his 34 points suggest. When a big-minute defenseman sits, his ice time goes to someone much worse, and on this blue line that means Barron or Jiricek. On game day, check Thomas, Broberg and the goalie.
5Goaltending: Hofer's job now
Since 2019, Jordan Binnington had been the Blues' goalie. Last season Joel Hofer took the job. He was well below expected in October, then above it in most months after, with a huge March. Binnington was below expected in October, December and January and finished with one of the worst goals-saved totals in the league.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer | -7.2 (4) | +2.1 (8) | +2.7 (10) | +3.1 (7) | -1.6 (2) | +10.3 (9) | +2.4 (6) | +11.8 |
| Jordan Binnington | -7.0 (9) | -0.6 (8) | -10.4 (7) | -6.3 (7) | +0.5 (2) | +3.6 (5) | -2.2 (3) | -22.4 |
Our projection grades Hofer B, a solid starter, and Binnington C, an average one. That gap is smaller than last season's numbers suggest, because Binnington's longer record is better than his last year. The common view is that it is Hofer's crease, and we agree.
With 12 back-to-back sets, Binnington will start a real share of games. Those nights carry a discount, though not a huge one. Confirm the starter before you bet.
6St. Louis's system: how they score and defend
Jim Montgomery's teams play low-event hockey, and last season's Blues took it to an extreme. Only one team took fewer shot attempts, and St. Louis rarely got to the slot or off the rush. The shooters made it work anyway by scoring on a high share of what they did get.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Low-event structure | Low-event structure (two seasons here) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | -0.7 SD | Fewer shots than average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | -0.3 SD | Fewer shots against than average |
| Blocked shots per 60 | +0.1 SD | About average |
| Hits per 60 | +0.5 SD | More hits than average |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | A small, uncertain plus |
| Measure | STL | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 218 | 238 | 8th fewest |
| Shot attempts | 3,069 | 3,470 | 2nd fewest |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 86.0% | 85.4% | 5th highest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3rd lowest |
| Goals off rebounds | 10.1% | 13.1% | 4th lowest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 46.8% | 54.1% | 2nd lowest |
| Goals on the power play | 19.7% | 23.1% | 8th lowest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 244 | 238 | 9th most |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,443 | 3,470 | 13th fewest |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 30.1% | 31.6% | 8th lowest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 7.3% | 8.1% | 4th lowest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 15.2% | 13.1% | 9th highest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 23.4% | 23.1% | 16th highest |
Offense: little volume, good shooters. St. Louis took the second-fewest attempts and the second-lowest share of goals from the slot. Most of its offense came from settled plays and shooters picking corners. That tends to work only with shooters as good as Thomas and Holloway, and Kyrou was one of them.
Defense: fine structure, weak finish. Opponents shot about an average amount and got few rebounds, but scored from the slot more than against all but four teams. That is where the first-half goaltending hurt the most.
What it means for scoring. St. Louis's games averaged 5.90 total goals last season: 2.80 for and 3.10 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings expect a bottom-five offense, a top-ten defense and among the lowest-event games in the league.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 6.23 | 24th | 5.33 | 32nd | 4.3 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 8.38 | 27th | 6.87 | 8th | 4.3 |
The power play was the weakest in the league at creating chances, 32nd, and 24th by goals. The penalty kill was the opposite: eighth-best at keeping chances down, but 27th by goals, because the goalies let it down.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Thomas | PP1 | Half-wall playmaker | 14 PP points |
| Mason McTavish | PP1 | New shooter in the middle | 10 PP points; 5 PP goals with Anaheim |
| Jimmy Snuggerud | PP1 | Flank shooter | 9 PP points; 5 PP goals |
| Dylan Holloway | PP1 | Net-front and rebounds | 8 PP points |
| Philip Broberg | PP1, PK1 | Quarterback at the point | 5 PP points; 2:23 shorthanded per game |
| Pavel Buchnevich | PP2 | Second-unit playmaker | 14 PP points |
| Colton Parayko | PK1 | Shutdown defender | 2:22 shorthanded per game |
| Pius Suter | PK1 | Lead penalty-killing center | 1:40 shorthanded per game |
| Alexey Toropchenko | PK1 | Forward pressure | 1:35 shorthanded per game |
| Brandon Carlo | PK2 | New shot blocker | 2:39 shorthanded per game with Toronto |
How the power play works. Thomas runs it from the half-wall, but he led the team with just 14 power-play points, a sign of how little it produced. Snuggerud and McTavish are the shooters, Holloway works the net front, and Broberg moves to the point. Kyrou and Buchnevich, the other regulars, now split between Washington and the second unit.
How the penalty kill works. Parayko and Broberg carry the defense, Suter and Toropchenko the forwards. Carlo, who killed more than two and a half minutes a night in Toronto, adds another shot blocker.
What to watch. The penalty kill's goals. It kept chances down well, and average goaltending would move it into the middle of the league quickly. The power play has a harder road.
8What would change our view
- HoferIf his second half was the new normal, the Blues are a wild-card team. If he settles to average, this rating holds.
- McTavish and DvorskyReal steps from the two young centers would fix the second line.
- Thomas's healthThe one player the offense cannot replace.
- The power playDead last in chances. Anything close to average would be worth a few points.
- Mailloux's returnAround Thanksgiving, it moves Barron down and deepens the blue line.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.