Seattle Kraken
Seattle's hot start was the mirage
The Kraken were a playoff team at Christmas and a lottery team by April. The difference was goaltending, and the play underneath was near the bottom of the league all year. Our model has Seattle 30th, right where the sportsbooks put it.
The bettor's bottom line
- A bottom-three team, fairly priced. D- rating, 30th in the league, about 80 points over 84 games. The books sit at 80.5. No quarrel with the total.
- Not enough offense. By our grades the forward group ranks last in the league. Beniers, Eberle and McCann are useful, but there is no star to carry it.
- Daccord is the best thing about them. Our projection grades him B despite a rough spring. The backup, Grubauer, grades near the bottom.
- The penalty kill was the worst in the league. Opponents' power plays did real damage, and nothing obvious has changed.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 34.3% win / 23.4% draw / 42.3% loss (2.91 / 4.27 / 2.37). On the road 27.2% win / 22.9% draw / 49.9% loss (3.67 / 4.37 / 2.01).
At the halfway mark of last season, Seattle had 47 points and a spot in the playoff race. Then the goaltending turned, and the Kraken took 32 points from the last 41 games. They finished 27th with 79 points, sixth in the Pacific, and missed the playoffs for the third year in a row.
The summer was quiet. Eeli Tolvanen, Jaden Schwartz and Jamie Oleksiak left, and Mackie Samoskevich came from Florida, though he starts the season hurt. The plan is the kids: Matty Beniers, Shane Wright and Berkly Catton.
The bettor's question is which half was real. Our answer is the second, or close to it. On chances, Seattle was one of the five worst teams in the league for the full season. The first half was held up by goalies saving far more than expected; the second half was the team without that help. The luck-adjusted rating is well below the actual one, and the summer did not add much.
That puts us in line with the market and a bit cooler than some of the local optimism, which sees a deeper forward group and a dangerous wild-card team. The common view is that Beniers needs to become a 60-point center and that Daccord needs a bounce-back. We agree on both, and even then, Seattle would need more than that.
1What last season really was
Seattle's 79 points were better than its play.
| Measure | SEA | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 79 | 27th | 6th in the Pacific |
| Goals for / against | 224 / 257 | -33 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 46.5% | 28th | Bottom five |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 46.0% | 28th | Same after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 45.4% | 31st | Below even |
| Finishing, goals above expected | +0.1 | 14th | Right on expected |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | +0.9 | 18th | +15.5 in the first half, -14.6 in the second |
On chances, the Kraken were 28th in the league, and the luck-adjusted rating is well below the actual one. Shooting was exactly average. The goaltending made the difference: far above expected in the first half, far below it in the second, and about even over the year.
That swing explains the season. The team that took 47 points by Christmas was riding its goalies. The team that took 32 after it was closer to what its play deserved. Our model looks at the whole year and lands on a bottom-three team.
2How the model builds Seattle's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is near the bottom. Measured on chances rather than results, Seattle was one of the five weakest teams in the league last season.
The roster got a little thinner. Tolvanen, Schwartz and Oleksiak were regulars. Samoskevich is a good young addition, but he starts the season injured.
Age is neutral. Young centers and an older group of wingers and defensemen balance out.
Finishing and the crease are neutral. Three seasons of shooting and goaltending come out close to average.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackie Samoskevich | RW | Sniper | Florida | 77 GP · 12 G · 32 P | B- | Upgrade when healthy. A 23-year-old shooter from Florida who grades above average. Starts on the injured list. |
| Curtis Douglas | C | Net-front depth | Vancouver | 43 GP · 1 G · 4 P | n/a | None. A 6-foot-9 depth center from Vancouver, starting as the extra. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Oleksiak | D | Physical depth | Vancouver | 78 GP · 5 G · 15 P | D+ | Small loss. A physical defenseman who played 78 games. Now in Vancouver. |
| Eeli Tolvanen | RW | Energy / physical | NY Rangers | 78 GP · 12 G · 36 P | C+ | Loss. A physical scoring winger with 36 points. Now with the Rangers. |
| Jaden Schwartz | LW | Sniper | Colorado | 50 GP · 11 G · 26 P | C+ | Loss. A veteran scorer, 26 points in 50 games. Now in Colorado. |
| Jani Nyman | RW | Middle-six all-rounder | Unsigned | 28 GP · 4 G · 7 P | D- | None. Young depth forward. |
| Oscar Fisker Molgaard | C | Defensive C / PK | Unsigned | 13 GP · 0 G · 2 P | n/a | None. Young depth center. |
Net: a small step back. Seattle lost three regulars and added one young forward who starts hurt. The bet is on internal growth from Beniers, Wright and Catton.
Bobby McMann arrived from Toronto at the deadline and scored 10 goals in 18 games. A full season of him on the second line is a small plus, though that scoring pace is not something to count on.
Goalies and coach barely move it. Daccord and Grubauer are both back, and Lane Lambert's record is close to neutral.
The result is a D- team, 30th in the league, projected for about 80 points. That puts Seattle between Nashville and Calgary, and sixth in the Pacific ahead of Calgary and Vancouver. The books agree to within a point.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
Beniers leads the top line. Matty Beniers grades B as a two-way center, and Jared McCann grades B after 20 goals in 52 games. Kaapo Kakko fills the wing spot meant for Samoskevich until he is healthy. That line can hold its own against most teams.
Eberle drives the second line. At 36, Jordan Eberle still grades B with 26 goals. He plays with Chandler Stephenson and Bobby McMann, whose hot finish after the trade is unlikely to hold. Stephenson grades D- despite 49 points, because his defensive numbers were poor. By our grades the top six ranks among the four weakest in the league.
The kids share a line. Berkly Catton, 20, centers Shane Wright and Ryan Winterton. Catton grades D+ and Wright C-, and the coach has said this line needs to connect better on the forecheck. It is the line that decides whether Seattle's future arrives this season.
The blue line has no anchor. Brandon Montour grades B- and Vince Dunn C+, both puck movers. Adam Larsson and Ryan Lindgren carry the defensive load and grade C- and E+. The top four ranks near the bottom of the league.
4Who matters most
On a team without stars, the most important players are the ones who play the most in every situation. For Seattle that is Beniers up front and Montour and Dunn on the blue line. When a big-minute defenseman sits, his ice time goes to someone worse, and the Kraken have little behind their top four.
The goalie matters more than any skater. The drop from Daccord to Grubauer is large in our projection. On game day, check the goalie first.
5Goaltending: one swing, both directions
Seattle's crease was one of the best in the league through Christmas and one of the worst after it. Philipp Grubauer was the surprise, well above expected from November through January. Joey Daccord was steady until March and April, when he gave back most of what he had saved.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord | -2.2 (8) | 0.0 (8) | +2.8 (8) | +0.3 (8) | +1.4 (3) | -5.1 (8) | -3.4 (4) | -6.2 |
| Matt Murray | +0.1 (1) | +2.7 (4) | +2.8 | |||||
| Philipp Grubauer | -0.5 (2) | +2.1 (4) | +3.6 (6) | +6.8 (9) | -2.5 (2) | -3.0 (7) | -0.8 (2) | +5.7 |
Our projection weighs three seasons and grades Daccord B, a solid starter, and Grubauer E+, near the bottom of the league. That flips last season's numbers, when Grubauer was the better goalie, because Grubauer's longer record is much weaker. The common view is that Daccord needs a bounce-back, and we expect one.
With 13 back-to-back sets, Grubauer will start a real share of games. Those are the nights the price should lean hardest against Seattle. Confirm the starter before you bet.
6Seattle's system: how they score and defend
Lane Lambert's teams collapse around the net and block shots, and they give up a lot of volume. Seattle last season fit that: only one team allowed more shot attempts, but a below-average share came from the slot. The offense was the problem. The Kraken shot little and rarely from the slot.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Collapse and block (defends a lot) | Collapse and block (one season here) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | -0.5 SD | Fewer shots than average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | +1.2 SD | Second-most in the league |
| Blocked shots per 60 | +1.1 SD | Blocks many more than average |
| Hits per 60 | +0.4 SD | More hits than average |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | No measurable boost or drag |
| Measure | SEA | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 208 | 238 | 4th fewest |
| Shot attempts | 3,213 | 3,470 | 6th fewest |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 85.2% | 85.4% | 14th lowest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.9% | 2.7% | 7th highest |
| Goals off rebounds | 20.7% | 13.1% | 1st highest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 52.4% | 54.1% | 8th lowest |
| Goals on the power play | 22.6% | 23.1% | 15th lowest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 234 | 238 | 14th fewest |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,746 | 3,470 | 2nd most |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 30.2% | 31.6% | 9th lowest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 7.9% | 8.1% | 12th lowest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 11.1% | 13.1% | 11th lowest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 25.2% | 23.1% | 8th highest |
Offense: little volume, one trick. Seattle took the sixth-fewest shot attempts and one of the lowest shares from the slot. It did lead the league in rebound goals and created a fair number of rush chances. That is not enough to build an offense on, and only three teams scored fewer goals.
Defense: lots of shots, mostly from outside. Opponents shot a lot but not often from the slot, which is the point of the system. It needs a goalie who handles volume, and when Daccord slumped in March, the goals came in bunches.
What it means for scoring. Seattle's games averaged 5.87 total goals last season: 2.73 for and 3.13 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings expect a bottom-three offense, a bottom-six defense, and games with fewer goals than average.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 6.46 | 22nd | 7.29 | 16th | 4.2 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 10.58 | 32nd | 8.07 | 29th | 3.9 |
The penalty kill was the worst in the league by goals and 29th by chances allowed. The power play was middle of the pack by chances, 16th, and 22nd by goals.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Stephenson | PP1 | Bumper and playmaker | 16 PP points; 6 PP goals |
| Vince Dunn | PP1 | Quarterback at the point | 15 PP points |
| Jordan Eberle | PP1 | Half-wall veteran | 12 PP points |
| Jared McCann | PP1 | The shooter | 11 PP points; 7 PP goals |
| Bobby McMann | PP1 | Net-front presence | 6 PP points |
| Ryan Lindgren | PK1 | Penalty-kill workhorse | 2:25 shorthanded per game |
| Adam Larsson | PK1 | Veteran shot blocker | 2:24 shorthanded per game |
| Frederick Gaudreau | PK1 | Lead penalty-killing center | 1:53 shorthanded per game |
| Ryan Winterton | PK1 | Young penalty killer | 0:56 shorthanded per game |
How the power play works. Stephenson led the unit with 16 power-play points, Dunn quarterbacks with 15, and McCann is the main shooter with seven goals. Eberle and McMann round out the first unit. Tolvanen, a regular on it, left for New York.
How the penalty kill works. Lindgren and Larsson carry it on defense, both over two minutes a night, and Gaudreau leads the forwards. Oleksiak, another regular, is gone. The unit lets opponents shoot, and the goalies did not bail it out.
What to watch. The penalty kill. It cannot get much worse, and some of last season's damage was goaltending. A move toward the bottom third would help Seattle in close games.
8What would change our view
- DaccordA full season like his first few months would lift Seattle toward the middle of the pack.
- Beniers and WrightA real step forward from the two young centers is the only path to a better offense.
- Samoskevich's returnAdds a shooter to a lineup that badly needs one.
- The penalty killFrom worst in the league to merely weak would be worth a few points.
- Trade deadlineEberle, 36, and other veterans could be moved if the season goes south early.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings, as Seattle showed last season.