San Jose Sharks
Celebrini is real. The rest is a year early.
San Jose jumped 34 points last season behind a 115-point sophomore, and the market expects another step. Our model agrees the future is bright and disagrees on the timing. The Sharks were a bottom-ten team on chances, their goaltending was among the worst in the league, and we have them about ten points below the sportsbooks.
The bettor's bottom line
- A rising team, priced ahead of itself. D rating, 27th in the league, about 83 points over 84 games. The books sit at 93.5, a playoff-race number. That is one of our biggest disagreements.
- Celebrini is a superstar. He grades A and is a real Hart Trophy candidate. One player, even this one, does not fix a team that was out-chanced most nights.
- The crease is the problem. San Jose's goalies have been below average for years. Askarov and Nedeljkovic both grade below average in our projection.
- Expect goals against. Only two teams allowed more goals last season, and our scoring ratings put the defense in the bottom four again. Sharks games run above the league average in total goals.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 36.5% win / 23.4% draw / 40.2% loss (2.74 / 4.28 / 2.49). On the road 29.2% win / 23.2% draw / 47.7% loss (3.43 / 4.32 / 2.10).
Macklin Celebrini's second season was one of the best by a teenager in years: 45 goals and 115 points, fourth in the league. San Jose won 19 more games than the year before, jumped 34 points, and finished four points out of a wild-card spot. After three seasons at the bottom, the Sharks were fun again.
The summer added to the hope. Ivar Stenberg, the second overall pick, made the team. Darnell Nurse, Jacob Trouba and Mason Marchment brought veteran experience. The market now prices San Jose as a playoff contender, and the talk around the team is about Celebrini's Hart Trophy chances.
The bettor's question is whether last season's jump was the start of a climb or a bit of a mirage. Our answer is somewhere in between, closer to the second for this season. On chances, the Sharks were 24th in the league. They scored more than their chances were worth for the first time in five years, and their goaltending was among the worst in the league. The rating comes out a little below last season's actual level, and nowhere near a playoff team.
That makes us much cooler than the crowd. The common view is that Celebrini is a Hart candidate, and NHL.com projects 119 points for him. We have no quarrel with that; our grades rate him among the best forwards in the league. Where we differ is the team around him. The young core is real, but most of it is 21 or younger, and the goalies are one of the weaker pairs in the league.
1What last season really was
San Jose's 86 points were a bit better than its play.
| Measure | SJS | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 86 | 22nd | 5th in the Pacific |
| Goals for / against | 249 / 290 | -41 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 47.8% | 24th | Bottom nine |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 48.1% | 23rd | Same after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 46.8% | 28th | Below even |
| Finishing, goals above expected | +7.3 | 9th | Top ten |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | -25.7 | 31st | -11.8 in the first half, -13.8 in the second |
On chances, the Sharks were 24th in the league. Their luck-adjusted rating is a little below the actual one, because the shooters scored above expected, led by Celebrini, and that covered for goaltending that was 31st in the league by goals saved.
Both halves looked the same: 43 points each, with the crease below expected in both. The finishing is the part to watch. It was the first season in five that San Jose scored above expected, and one good year after four poor ones is more likely to fade than repeat, even with Celebrini.
2How the model builds San Jose's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is near the bottom. Measured on chances rather than results, San Jose was a bottom-ten team last season.
Youth is the main plus. Only three teams have a younger lineup. Celebrini and Chernyshov are 20, Stenberg and Misa younger still, and Smith and Dickinson are 21 or under. Young teams tend to improve.
Finishing and the crease are the biggest drag. Three seasons of shooting and goaltending together come out as the weakest in the league. The goaltending has been below average every year, and that is what our model trusts most.
The roster is about even. Nurse, Trouba and Marchment are solid veterans, but William Eklund and Mario Ferraro, two of the better players last season, left. The net change is a small minus.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Nurse | D | Two-way top pair | Edmonton | 82 GP · 7 G · 24 P | B- | Upgrade. A big-minute defenseman from Edmonton who grades above average. |
| Jacob Trouba | D | Two-way top pair | Anaheim | 81 GP · 10 G · 35 P | C | Useful. A veteran shutdown defenseman and heavy penalty killer from Anaheim. |
| Mason Marchment | LW | Playmaker | Columbus | 68 GP · 19 G · 45 P | B- | Upgrade. A playmaking winger who scored at a strong rate last season. Starts on Celebrini's line. |
| Michael Kesselring | D | Sheltered puck mover | Buffalo | 34 GP · 0 G · 2 P | D+ | Small. A big right shot from Buffalo, handed top-pair minutes with Nurse. |
| Ivar Stenberg | LW | Middle-six all-rounder | Draft, No. 2 overall | No NHL games last season | C+ | Upside. The second overall pick in 2026, straight into the lineup. Our projection sees an average NHL forward from day one. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Ferraro | D | Shutdown / PK | Winnipeg | 82 GP · 7 G · 23 P | B- | Loss. A shutdown defenseman who played all 82 games. Now in Winnipeg. |
| William Eklund | LW | Middle-six all-rounder | Ottawa | 78 GP · 15 G · 53 P | B+ | Real loss. A 53-point two-way winger who graded B+. Traded to Ottawa. |
| John Klingberg | D | Sheltered puck mover | Unsigned | 56 GP · 10 G · 27 P | E+ | None. A veteran puck mover who graded near the bottom. |
| Vincent Desharnais | D | Shutdown / PK | Washington | 53 GP · 1 G · 7 P | C- | Small loss. A physical defensive defenseman, now in Washington. |
| Ryan Reaves | RW | Energy / physical | Unsigned | 50 GP · 3 G · 3 P | E | None. Enforcer. |
| Shakir Mukhamadullin | D | Shutdown / PK | Edmonton | 50 GP · 5 G · 12 P | D | None. Young depth defenseman, traded to Edmonton. |
| Philipp Kurashev | C | Playmaker | Unsigned | 43 GP · 7 G · 20 P | C- | None. Depth forward. |
| Nick Leddy | D | Shutdown / PK | Unsigned | 32 GP · 1 G · 7 P | E | None. Veteran depth defenseman. |
| Jeff Skinner | LW | Middle-six all-rounder | Unsigned | 32 GP · 6 G · 13 P | D- | None. Veteran depth scorer. |
| Pavol Regenda | LW | Net-front depth | Unsigned | 24 GP · 9 G · 10 P | D+ | None. Depth forward. |
Net: about even. The veterans add size and experience, but Eklund was one of the team's best players, and the new arrivals do not grade better than the ones who left. The upgrade has to come from the kids.
Kiefer Sherwood arrived from Vancouver in February and played 28 games. A full season of his physical game on the fourth line is a small plus.
Goalies and coach barely move it. Askarov and Nedeljkovic are both back, and Ryan Warsofsky's record is close to neutral.
The result is a D team, 27th in the league, projected for about 83 points. That puts San Jose between St. Louis and Chicago, and fifth in the Pacific. The books expect about ten points more.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
Celebrini carries everything. He grades A, the best player on the roster by a wide margin, and plays in every situation. Will Smith, 21, scored 24 goals on his wing, and Marchment joins them. That line can play with anyone.
Wennberg anchors the second line. Alexander Wennberg grades B+ as a two-way center who kills penalties and plays the power play. He centers Ivar Stenberg, the second overall pick, and Collin Graf, 21 goals, which gives the rookie a safe place to start.
Two teenagers and a veteran on the third line. Michael Misa, 19, centers Igor Chernyshov, 20, and Tyler Toffoli. Chernyshov grades C+ after a promising half season; Misa grades C-, still learning the defensive side.
The blue line is veterans and kids. Dmitry Orlov grades B and Nurse B-. Trouba grades C, and Dickinson and Luca Cagnoni are 20 and 21. By our grades the top four ranks in the bottom third of the league. Nobody on it drives play the way a top-pair defenseman should.
4Who matters most
Celebrini is the player the price depends on, more than any single player on almost any team. He plays 21 minutes, runs the power play, and the drop to the next center is steep. If he misses a game, the Sharks' price should move more than for a typical star.
On defense, Orlov and Nurse play the hardest minutes. When a big-minute defenseman sits, his ice time goes to someone worse, and on this blue line that means a 20-year-old. On game day, check Celebrini first, then the goalie.
5Goaltending: still the weak link
Yaroslav Askarov was supposed to be the franchise goalie when San Jose traded for him. Last season he had one excellent month, November, and was below expected in every other. Alex Nedeljkovic was up and down: strong in January and April, poor in October and March. As a team, the Sharks were 31st by goals saved.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic | -4.5 (5) | +0.2 (6) | -1.2 (6) | +6.9 (7) | -1.0 (1) | -6.3 (10) | +4.8 (5) | -1.1 |
| Yaroslav Askarov | -6.5 (6) | +10.4 (10) | -7.6 (10) | -4.0 (7) | -3.5 (4) | -0.2 (5) | -7.5 (5) | -18.9 |
Our projection weighs three seasons and grades Nedeljkovic C- and Askarov D, both below average. Askarov is 24 and could still grow into the job, but the record so far is thin. San Jose has been linked to Connor Hellebuyck in trade talk, which says the team sees the same problem.
With 13 back-to-back sets and two goalies of similar quality, starts should be close to even. Neither is a reason to back the Sharks. Confirm the starter anyway.
6San Jose's system: how they score and defend
Ryan Warsofsky's teams defend deep, block shots and hit, and they give up a lot of volume. San Jose last season took the third-fewest shot attempts and created the second-fewest rush chances. What it did shoot came from good places, and Celebrini made the most of it.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Collapse and block (defends a lot) | Collapse and block (two seasons here) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | -1.1 SD | Far fewer shots than average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | +1.4 SD | Many more than average |
| Blocked shots per 60 | +1.1 SD | Blocks many more than average |
| Hits per 60 | +0.9 SD | Many more hits than average |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | No measurable boost or drag |
| Measure | SJS | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 237 | 238 | 15th most |
| Shot attempts | 3,104 | 3,470 | 3rd fewest |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 86.0% | 85.4% | 4th highest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2nd lowest |
| Goals off rebounds | 13.9% | 13.1% | 12th highest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 55.3% | 54.1% | 12th highest |
| Goals on the power play | 25.3% | 23.1% | 10th highest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 273 | 238 | 3rd most |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,599 | 3,470 | 9th most |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 32.1% | 31.6% | 12th highest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 8.3% | 8.1% | 14th highest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 12.8% | 13.1% | 15th highest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 24.5% | 23.1% | 12th highest |
Offense: few shots, good ones. The Sharks rarely shot and rarely rushed, but took the sixth-highest share of shots from the slot. It is a way to score with a skilled center and not much volume, and it depends on the finishing that ran hot last season.
Defense: the goalies let it down. Opponents shot more than average and got a lot of rush chances, but few slot goals. Still, only two teams allowed more goals. That gap between chances and goals is mostly the goaltending.
What it means for scoring. San Jose's games averaged 6.57 total goals last season: 3.04 for and 3.54 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings expect an offense below the middle, a bottom-four defense, and games more open than average.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 6.86 | 20th | 7.40 | 15th | 4.9 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 8.26 | 25th | 7.95 | 27th | 4.9 |
Special teams were a weakness. The power play ranked 15th by chances and 20th by goals. The penalty kill was 25th by goals and 27th by chances allowed.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | PP1 | The engine | 28 PP points, 13th in the NHL; 8 PP goals |
| Alexander Wennberg | PP1, PK1 | Bumper and faceoffs | 14 PP points; 8 PP goals; 2:03 shorthanded per game |
| Will Smith | PP1 | Flank finisher | 13 PP points; 8 PP goals |
| Igor Chernyshov | PP1 | Net front | 5 PP points |
| Luca Cagnoni | PP1 | New point man | 3 games; 0 PP points |
| Dmitry Orlov | PP2 | Second-unit quarterback | 18 PP points |
| Tyler Toffoli | PP2 | Second-unit shooter | 13 PP points; 6 PP goals |
| Jacob Trouba | PK1 | Penalty-kill workhorse | 2:56 shorthanded per game, 8th most in the NHL with Anaheim |
| Collin Graf | PK1 | Lead penalty-killing forward | 2:25 shorthanded per game |
| Sam Dickinson | PK1 | Young penalty killer | 0:53 shorthanded per game |
| Kiefer Sherwood | PK2 | Physical penalty killer | 1:27 shorthanded per game |
How the power play works. It runs through Celebrini, who had 28 power-play points. Wennberg and Smith each scored eight power-play goals, and Chernyshov works the net front. The new wrinkle is Luca Cagnoni, a 21-year-old with three NHL games, on the point of the first unit. Orlov runs the second.
How the penalty kill works. Trouba arrives as the workhorse after nearly three minutes a night in Anaheim, one of the heaviest loads in the league. Graf and Wennberg lead the forwards. Ferraro and Desharnais, two regulars, both left.
What to watch. The power play with Cagnoni on the point. If a rookie quarterback works, the unit can move toward the top half. If not, expect Orlov to take over quickly.
8What would change our view
- A new goalieA trade for a real starter, Hellebuyck or otherwise, would move the rating more than anything else.
- AskarovIf the November version shows up for a full season, the crease stops being a drag.
- The kidsStenberg, Misa, Chernyshov and Dickinson all growing at once would speed up the timeline.
- Celebrini's healthThe price depends on him as much as on any player in the league.
- FinishingIf the shooting stays hot, our model will pick it up; one year is not enough to trust it yet.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.