Ottawa Senators
Tkachuk is gone. The team underneath is better than you think.
Ottawa lost its captain this summer, got swept in the first round, and is widely expected to slide. Our model sees one of the best teams in the league on chances last season, held back by some of the worst goaltending. We have the Senators fourth, well above the sportsbooks.
The bettor's bottom line
- A top-five team, priced like a bubble team. B+ rating, 4th in the league, about 103 points over 84 games. The books sit at 94.5. That is one of our biggest disagreements with the market.
- The blue line is the engine. Jake Sanderson grades A, and by our grades Ottawa's top four is the best in the league. That did not leave with Tkachuk.
- Ullmark is the swing. Last season's crease was among the worst in the league for three months, then fine. Our projection grades Ullmark B+; the backup, Samuel Ersson, grades near the bottom.
- A team that controls play. Ottawa allowed the second-fewest shot attempts in the league. When the goalie holds up, that wins a lot of games.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 49.2% win / 23.0% draw / 27.8% loss (2.03 / 4.35 / 3.59). On the road 41.6% win / 23.4% draw / 35.0% loss (2.40 / 4.27 / 2.86).
Ottawa's summer started with a four-game sweep by Carolina and got worse. In June, Brady Tkachuk, the captain who had said many times he wanted to stay, was traded to Florida for three first-round picks. Daniel Alfredsson left to coach in Toronto. The mood in Ottawa is about as low as it gets for a team coming off 99 points.
The common view follows the mood. The Hockey News warns that the Senators are in danger of taking a step back, and most previews list them as a bubble team in a crowded Atlantic. The sportsbooks agree, at 94.5 points.
Our model reads last season differently. On chances, Ottawa was the third-best team in the league. It lost points because its goalies were among the worst in the league through Christmas: after the break, with the goaltending back to average, the Senators took 54 points from 41 games. The core that drove that play is still here and still young. Tkachuk was a star, but William Eklund, who arrives from San Jose, covers more of his value than the headlines suggest.
That makes us far warmer than the crowd. The fair question is Linus Ullmark. The common worry is which version shows up, and it is a real one. Our projection weighs his whole record and still likes him. If he is average, Ottawa is a playoff team. If he is good, it is a contender in the East.
1What last season really was
Ottawa's 99 points undersold how well it played.
| Measure | OTT | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 99 | 9th | 5th in the Atlantic |
| Goals for / against | 275 / 245 | +30 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 55.2% | 3rd | Third in the league |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 55.1% | 3rd | Third after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 53.7% | 3rd | Well above even |
| Finishing, goals above expected | +3.1 | 11th | Slightly above expected |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | -24.0 | 30th | -23.5 in the first half, -0.5 in the second |
On chances, only two teams were better than the Senators. Their luck-adjusted rating is close to a contender's, while the actual one sits in the middle of the playoff pack. The gap is almost all goaltending: Ottawa's goalies were 30th in the league by goals saved, and nearly all of it came in the first half.
That split is the key. In the first half, the crease gave away more than 20 goals and Ottawa took 45 points. In the second, it was average and the team took 54. The shooting was about average all season, so there is little luck to take away on that side. Bad goaltending is the part of a season that tends to change the most from year to year.
2How the model builds Ottawa's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is excellent. Measured on chances rather than results, Ottawa was one of the three best teams in the league last season.
The roster change is smaller than it looks. Tkachuk grades as an elite forward and missed 22 games last season. Eklund is a strong two-way winger at 23. Over a full season, the lineup loses a little, not a lot.
Age is a small plus. Stützle, Sanderson, Pinto, Greig, Cozens and Eklund are all 25 or younger, and young teams tend to improve.
Finishing and the crease are a small minus. Three seasons of shooting and goaltending together come out a bit below average, dragged down by last season's first half.
Injuries cost a little. Artem Zub and Warren Foegele start on injured reserve, and Ridly Greig is suspended for two games.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson | G | Goalie | Philadelphia | 33 GP · -16.5 GSAx | E | Downgrade risk. A backup from the Flyers whose numbers have fallen three years in a row. |
| William Eklund | LW | Middle-six all-rounder | San Jose | 78 GP · 15 G · 53 P | B+ | Clear upgrade. A 23-year-old two-way winger with 53 points in San Jose. Starts on the second line with Cozens. |
| Andre Burakovsky | LW | Middle-six all-rounder | Chicago | 74 GP · 11 G · 33 P | C- | Small. A veteran scorer from Chicago, starting as the extra forward. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Eller | C | Defensive C / PK | Florida | 68 GP · 5 G · 15 P | D+ | Small loss. A veteran checking center, now in Florida. |
| Nick Jensen | D | Sheltered puck mover | Anaheim | 61 GP · 4 G · 17 P | D | Small loss. A veteran defenseman, now in Anaheim. |
| Brady Tkachuk | LW | Sniper | Florida | 60 GP · 22 G · 59 P | A++ | Real loss. The captain and an elite power forward, with 59 points in 60 games. Traded to Florida for three first-round picks. |
| Leevi Meriläinen | G | Goalie | Vancouver | 20 GP · -17.3 GSAx | n/a | Addition by subtraction. Well below expected in 20 games. Now in Vancouver. |
| James Reimer | G | Goalie | Unsigned | 14 GP · -0.7 GSAx | n/a | None. Veteran stopgap, about average in 14 games. |
| Lassi Thomson | D | Sheltered puck mover | Unsigned | 11 GP · 0 G · 3 P | n/a | None. Depth defenseman. |
Net: a small step back. Losing Tkachuk hurts, especially for the power play and the team's identity. Eklund is a real replacement at even strength, and the rest of the core is untouched. The crease depth also changes: Ersson replaces the goalies who struggled last season, not a better backup.
Warren Foegele arrived from Los Angeles in March and played 21 games. He starts on injured reserve but is already practicing on the top line, and a full season of him adds a useful scorer.
Goalies and coach barely move it. Ullmark is back as the starter, and Travis Green's record is close to neutral.
The result is a B+ team, 4th in the league, projected for about 103 points. That puts Ottawa between Tampa Bay and Dallas, and second in the Atlantic behind the Lightning. The books expect about nine points fewer.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
Stützle leads the forwards. Tim Stützle had 83 points and grades B+ as a two-way center. At camp he skated with Drake Batherson, 33 goals, and Warren Foegele, who is on injured reserve but joined the line on Monday. If Foegele is not ready, Andre Burakovsky is the likely stand-in.
Eklund goes to the second line. Dylan Cozens, 28 goals, centers William Eklund and Fabian Zetterlund. Eklund grades B+ and should push this line past what Zetterlund's grade suggests.
Pinto's line is the hidden strength. Shane Pinto grades A-, the highest-rated forward on the roster, as a two-way center who kills penalties. With Claude Giroux, still B+ at 38, and Michael Amadio, it is a third line that can beat most teams' top units. Greig centers the fourth line once his two-game suspension ends.
The blue line is elite. Sanderson grades A and plays nearly 25 minutes. Thomas Chabot grades B+, Zub B and Jordan Spence B-. By our grades that is the best top four in the league when Zub is healthy. Carter Yakemchuk, 21, gets a real chance while Zub is out.
4Who matters most
Sanderson is the player the price depends on most. He plays the most minutes, on both special teams, and runs the power play. When a big-minute defenseman sits, his ice time goes to someone much worse, and even Ottawa's deep blue line has no one else who does what he does.
Up front, Stützle and Pinto matter more than any single scorer: they are the two centers who play both ways. On game day, check Sanderson, the two centers, and the goalie.
5Goaltending: the three months that cost a season
Linus Ullmark was far below expected in October, November and December. Leevi Merilainen, who filled in, was worse. By January, Ottawa's crease had given away more goals than almost any in the league. From February on, Ullmark was above expected every month, and the team took off.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Reimer | -0.6 (5) | -1.1 (2) | +0.3 (5) | +0.7 (2) | -0.7 | |||
| Leevi Merilinen | -4.5 (2) | -0.1 (4) | -6.2 (5) | -6.5 (9) | -17.3 | |||
| Linus Ullmark | -9.5 (10) | -4.3 (9) | -4.5 (9) | +0.2 (1) | +1.3 (3) | +0.3 (11) | +3.6 (6) | -12.9 |
Our projection weighs three seasons, including a Vezina-level stretch in Boston, and grades Ullmark B+, a top-quarter starter. That is well above the common view, which treats him as a coin flip. The worry is real, and the first two months will tell us a lot.
Ersson is the weak spot. He grades E after his numbers fell for a third straight year. Ottawa has 14 back-to-back sets, and his starts on those nights should carry a real discount. Confirm the starter before you bet.
6Ottawa's system: how they score and defend
Travis Green's teams have no strong signature, but last season's Senators had a clear one: they kept the puck. Ottawa allowed the second-fewest shot attempts in the league and took more than average. At even strength, very few teams controlled games better.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Balanced, no strong signature | Balanced, no strong signature (two seasons here) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | -0.1 SD | A few more shots than average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | -0.0 SD | Second-fewest in the league |
| Blocked shots per 60 | -0.1 SD | About average |
| Hits per 60 | +0.4 SD | More hits than average |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | A small, uncertain plus |
| Measure | OTT | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 257 | 238 | 9th most |
| Shot attempts | 3,573 | 3,470 | 9th most |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 85.5% | 85.4% | 16th highest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.6% | 2.7% | 15th lowest |
| Goals off rebounds | 12.8% | 13.1% | 15th highest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 53.7% | 54.1% | 13th lowest |
| Goals on the power play | 26.5% | 23.1% | 7th highest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 236 | 238 | 16th fewest |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,038 | 3,470 | 2nd fewest |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 31.1% | 31.6% | 14th lowest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 7.9% | 8.1% | 11th lowest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13th highest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 25.4% | 23.1% | 6th highest |
Offense: steady, not flashy. Ottawa took a slightly above-average share of shots from the slot and scored the ninth-most goals. Few rebounds and few rush chances: the goals came from possession and the power play.
Defense: few shots, average quality. Opponents rarely got the puck, and when they did, the share of dangerous shots was about league average. That is why the goaltending mattered so much: the shots it faced were not unusually hard.
What it means for scoring. Ottawa's games averaged 6.34 total goals last season: 3.35 for and 2.99 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings expect a top-four offense and a top-three defense, with games close to the league average in total goals.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 8.53 | 5th | 6.93 | 23rd | 5.1 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 7.83 | 21st | 6.09 | 1st | 4.5 |
The two units had opposite luck. The power play was fifth by goals but 23rd by chances. The penalty kill allowed the fewest chances in the league but ranked 21st by goals, because the goalies let it down.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Batherson | PP1 | Flank shooter | 30 PP points, 10th in the NHL; 13 PP goals, 11th in the NHL |
| Tim Stützle | PP1, PK1 | Half-wall playmaker | 28 PP points, 13th in the NHL; 9 PP goals; 1:49 shorthanded per game |
| Dylan Cozens | PP1 | Net front and bumper | 27 PP points, 18th in the NHL; 13 PP goals, 11th in the NHL |
| Jake Sanderson | PP1, PK1 | Quarterback at the point | 19 PP points; 5 PP goals; 2:47 shorthanded per game, 14th most in the NHL |
| William Eklund | PP1 | New playmaker | 11 PP points with San Jose |
| Claude Giroux | PP2 | Second-unit veteran | 12 PP points |
| Shane Pinto | PK1 | Lead penalty-killing center | 2:08 shorthanded per game |
| Ridly Greig | PK1 | Forward pressure | 2:01 shorthanded per game |
| Thomas Chabot | PK2 | Second-unit defender | 1:33 shorthanded per game |
How the power play works. Batherson and Cozens each scored 13 power-play goals, Stützle set up 28 points from the half-wall, and Sanderson quarterbacks. Tkachuk was a net-front presence on this unit; Eklund takes the spot with a different, playmaking style. Scoring this well on so few chances is hard to repeat.
How the penalty kill works. Sanderson and Zub carry the defense, with Pinto and Greig the forward regulars. With Zub hurt and Greig suspended, the opening-week unit is short two regulars.
What to watch. The penalty kill's goals. It already kept chances down better than any team; average goaltending alone would move it well up the rankings.
8What would change our view
- Ullmark's first two monthsA repeat of last fall would drag the rating down fast. A normal start confirms the view.
- A top-six forwardA trade for a real scorer would fix the lineup's one weakness and push Ottawa toward the top two.
- Sanderson's healthThe most important player on the roster, and the one the depth cannot replace.
- The power play without TkachukIt scored well above its chances. A drop there would cost more than the even-strength loss.
- Zub's returnRestores the best top four in the league by our grades.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.