New Jersey Devils
The unluckiest team in hockey, loaded up
New Jersey out-chanced most of the league last season and still missed the playoffs, because no team turned fewer of its chances into goals. The summer added real scoring help around Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. Our model has the Devils as a solid playoff team, right where the sportsbooks have them. The crease is the catch.
The bettor's bottom line
- A playoff team, fairly priced. C+ rating, 10th in the league, about 96 points over 84 games. The books sit at 96.5. The bounce-back is already in the price.
- Two A+ centers. Hischier and Jack Hughes both grade among the best forwards in the league. Hughes has missed 46 games over the last two seasons, and his health is the season.
- The weakest link is in goal. Jake Allen, 36, takes over as the starter with Markstrom gone. Our projection grades both Allen and Nico Daws below average.
- Finishing should improve, not flip. Two straight years at the bottom of the league in goals versus chances. Our model expects better luck, but New Jersey's shooting has earned some of its bad name.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 44.6% win / 23.4% draw / 32.0% loss (2.24 / 4.28 / 3.12). On the road 37.2% win / 23.3% draw / 39.5% loss (2.69 / 4.29 / 2.53).
No team in the NHL wasted more chances than the Devils last season. New Jersey was a top-ten team by expected goals and finished 21st in the standings with 87 points, out of the playoffs. It scored 35 goals fewer than its chances were worth, the worst finishing in the league, and it did almost exactly the same thing the season before.
The summer brought a new general manager, Sunny Mehta, and a clear plan: more finishers around the two stars. Luke Evangelista came from Nashville after a 56-point season, Anthony Mantha from Pittsburgh after 33 goals, and Evan Rodrigues from Florida. Jacob Markstrom left for Florida, and Jake Allen, 36, becomes the starter.
So is last season's miss a buy signal? Partly. On chances, New Jersey was a playoff team, and its luck-adjusted rating is far above its actual one, one of the biggest gaps in the league. But two straight seasons of terrible finishing is also information, and our model keeps some of it. Add a clear upgrade up front and a shaky crease, and the Devils land 10th in the league, second in the Metropolitan.
That is a little warmer than the crowd. The Hockey News predicts fourth in the Metropolitan, behind Carolina, Washington and Philadelphia. We have New Jersey ahead of all but Carolina. The common view is that the whole thing hinges on Jack Hughes playing a full season, and we agree. Some previews go further and see a Hart Trophy run from Hughes. Our grades already rate him with the best, so health is the only question.
1What last season really was
New Jersey's 87 points were far below what its play deserved.
| Measure | NJD | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 87 | 21st | 7th in the Metropolitan |
| Goals for / against | 226 / 253 | -27 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 51.1% | 10th | Top ten |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 51.1% | 11th | Same after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 51.4% | 10th | Above even |
| Finishing, goals above expected | -35.2 | 32nd | Worst in the league |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | -3.5 | 22nd | +5.2 in the first half, -8.7 in the second |
On chances, the Devils were tenth in the league. Their luck-adjusted rating is close to a playoff team's, while the actual one sits near the bottom third. The whole gap is finishing: New Jersey scored fewer goals relative to its chances than any team in the league, and the goaltending was a little below average too.
Here is the catch. The season before looked the same, with finishing just as bad. Two years in a row with largely the same shooters is more than bad luck, so our model does not expect a full rebound. The new additions should help: Mantha and Evangelista are the kind of finishers this roster lacked.
2How the model builds New Jersey's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is solid. Measured on chances rather than results, New Jersey was a playoff-level team last season.
The roster got much better. Evangelista, Mantha and Rodrigues are real top-nine forwards, and the players who left were mostly depth. Only two teams added more lineup quality this summer.
Finishing is the biggest drag. Three seasons of shooting and goaltending together come out well below average, among the weakest in the league. This is why the rating does not jump all the way to what the chances say.
Injuries cost a little. Johnathan Kovacevic, Seamus Casey and Nick Bjugstad start on injured reserve, and the rating counts the games they are expected to miss.
The crease is a small plus. Markstrom was well below expected last season, so moving on from him helps even with a weak replacement.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Mantha | RW | Sniper | Pittsburgh | 81 GP · 33 G · 64 P | C+ | Upgrade. Scored 33 goals in Pittsburgh. Slots in on Jack Hughes's wing. |
| Luke Evangelista | RW | Playmaker | Nashville | 81 GP · 12 G · 56 P | B | Clear upgrade. A 24-year-old playmaker with 56 points in Nashville. Joins Hischier on the second line. |
| Jesper Boqvist | C | Energy / physical | Florida | 73 GP · 4 G · 13 P | n/a | None. Depth forward back from Florida, starting as an extra. |
| Evan Rodrigues | C | Two-way top C | Florida | 69 GP · 11 G · 31 P | B- | Upgrade. A versatile two-way forward from Florida who centers the third line. |
| Declan Chisholm | D | Sheltered puck mover | Washington | 26 GP · 1 G · 7 P | D | Small. A depth defenseman from Washington, in the lineup while Kovacevic is hurt. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Cotter | C | Energy / physical | Vancouver | 79 GP · 9 G · 15 P | E | None. Energy forward, now in Vancouver. |
| Simon Nemec | D | Sheltered puck mover | Calgary | 68 GP · 11 G · 26 P | D | Small loss. A young defenseman who never settled in; traded to Calgary. |
| Jacob Markstrom | G | Goalie | Florida | 44 GP · -11.9 GSAx | E | Addition by subtraction. Well below expected in 44 games. Now in Florida. |
| Lenni Hameenaho | RW | Middle-six all-rounder | Unsigned | 33 GP · 2 G · 8 P | D- | None. Young depth forward. |
| Juho Lammikko | C | Net-front depth | Unsigned | 24 GP · 0 G · 2 P | E+ | None. Depth center. |
| Evgenii Dadonov | RW | Middle-six all-rounder | Unsigned | 24 GP · 1 G · 1 P | E- | None. One point in 24 games. |
| Colton White | D | Physical depth | Unsigned | 23 GP · 0 G · 4 P | E | None. Depth defenseman. |
| Maxim Tsyplakov | RW | Middle-six all-rounder | Calgary | 22 GP · 1 G · 2 P | C- | None. Depth forward, traded to Calgary. |
| Dennis Cholowski | D | Sheltered puck mover | Unsigned | 17 GP · 0 G · 2 P | n/a | None. Depth defenseman. |
| Brian Halonen | LW | Middle-six all-rounder | Boston | 15 GP · 1 G · 2 P | n/a | None. Depth forward, now in Boston. |
Net: a clear upgrade. New Jersey added three real forwards and lost only depth players. The one downgrade is in goal, where the plan relies on a 36-year-old.
The coach is neutral. Sheldon Keefe's two seasons here are already in the starting point, and his record is close to average.
The result is a C+ team, 10th in the league, projected for about 96 points. That puts New Jersey between Minnesota and Buffalo, and second in the Metropolitan behind Carolina. The books agree to within a point.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
Two elite centers. Nico Hischier grades A+ as a two-way center, with 28 goals and top penalty-kill minutes. Jack Hughes also grades A+, with 77 points in 61 games. Few teams have one center like either of them.
The wings finally fit. Evangelista and Timo Meier flank Hischier, and Mantha and Jesper Bratt flank Hughes. Bratt, with 71 points, grades A-. Mantha brings the finishing the Hughes line lacked. By our grades, the forward group ranks second in the league.
The third line is real. Rodrigues centers Arseny Gritsyuk and Dawson Mercer, who grades B as a two-way winger. That gives Keefe three lines he can use against good opponents.
The blue line is the soft spot. Brett Pesce grades B+ but played only 37 games last season. Luke Hughes grades B- and runs the power play. Siegenthaler and Dougie Hamilton grade C, and the third pair of Dillon and Chisholm is thin until Kovacevic returns. The top four ranks around 20th in the league.
4Who matters most
Jack Hughes is the player the season depends on, mostly because he keeps getting hurt. With Hischier behind him the drop at center is smaller than on most teams, but losing either one pushes Rodrigues into top-six minutes.
On defense, Pesce matters more than his point totals suggest. He is the defenseman who plays the hard minutes and leads the penalty kill. When a big-minute defenseman sits, his ice time goes to someone worse, and on this blue line the replacement would be Chisholm. On game day, check both Hughes brothers and Pesce.
5Goaltending: the question nobody wanted
Jacob Markstrom was supposed to be the answer in goal. He was below expected in most months last season and signed with Florida this summer. Jake Allen, the backup, was the better goalie: above expected in five of seven months, with a strong November. At 36, he now becomes the starter.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom | -6.4 (4) | -0.2 (8) | +0.4 (8) | -4.7 (9) | +2.2 (3) | -3.2 (10) | -0.1 (2) | -12.0 |
| Jake Allen | +0.1 (7) | +5.6 (6) | +0.7 (8) | -0.7 (6) | +1.0 (2) | +0.5 (4) | -0.8 (4) | +6.4 |
Our projection looks past one good year and grades Allen D, reflecting his age and a longer record that was ordinary. Nico Daws, 25, grades D+ on a handful of NHL games. As a pair, this is one of the weaker crease situations in the league. The common view is that it is New Jersey's biggest question, and we agree.
Keefe is carrying three goalies to start, with Remi Poirier claimed off waivers. With 13 back-to-back sets and no clear #1, starts will move around. Confirm the goalie before you bet, and expect the Devils to be linked to every available goalie before the deadline.
6New Jersey's system: how they score and defend
Sheldon Keefe's teams lean toward possession, and New Jersey did last season: it took the fourth-most shot attempts in the league and allowed fewer than average. The problem was what happened near the net. The Devils scored the second-fewest rebound goals in the league and gave up the fourth-most.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Mild possession lean | Mild possession lean (two seasons here) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | +0.5 SD | Many more shots than average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | -0.5 SD | Fewer shots against than average |
| Blocked shots per 60 | -0.1 SD | About average |
| Hits per 60 | -0.6 SD | Few hits |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | A small, uncertain plus |
| Measure | NJD | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 209 | 238 | 5th fewest |
| Shot attempts | 3,626 | 3,470 | 4th most |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 85.5% | 85.4% | 14th highest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.7% | 2.7% | 14th highest |
| Goals off rebounds | 9.6% | 13.1% | 2nd lowest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 53.1% | 54.1% | 10th lowest |
| Goals on the power play | 24.4% | 23.1% | 13th highest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 241 | 238 | 11th most |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,369 | 3,470 | 10th fewest |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 32.4% | 31.6% | 8th highest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 8.4% | 8.1% | 13th highest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 16.6% | 13.1% | 4th highest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 20.3% | 23.1% | 4th lowest |
Offense: lots of shots, few second chances. New Jersey out-shot most teams but rarely scored off rebounds and took a below-average share from the slot. The goals it missed were the dirty ones, which is exactly what Mantha is there to add.
Defense: fine until the rebound. Opponents got an above-average share of slot shots and scored off rebounds more than against all but three teams. A younger, thinner blue line and a new starter in goal make that the part to watch.
What it means for scoring. New Jersey's games averaged 5.84 total goals last season: 2.76 for and 3.09 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings, which still carry the finishing record, expect an offense below the middle and a defense slightly above it, with games a bit lower-scoring than average.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 7.94 | 13th | 8.25 | 6th | 4.0 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 6.95 | 14th | 6.69 | 6th | 4.1 |
Both units were better by chances than by goals. The power play ranked sixth by chances but 13th by goals, and the penalty kill was sixth by chances allowed but 14th by goals.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hischier | PP1, PK1 | Net front and finisher | 22 PP points; 11 PP goals; 1:42 shorthanded per game |
| Jack Hughes | PP1 | Playmaker on the flank | 21 PP points |
| Jesper Bratt | PP1 | Half-wall passer | 19 PP points; 5 PP goals |
| Luke Evangelista | PP1 | New playmaker | 17 PP points with Nashville |
| Luke Hughes | PP1 | Quarterback at the point | 12 PP points |
| Dougie Hamilton | PP2 | Second-unit shooter | 13 PP points |
| Anthony Mantha | PP2 | Second-unit finisher | 12 PP points; 7 PP goals with Pittsburgh |
| Brett Pesce | PK1 | Top penalty-killing defender | 2:23 shorthanded per game |
| Brenden Dillon | PK1 | Veteran shot blocker | 2:11 shorthanded per game |
| Connor Brown | PK1 | Lead penalty-killing forward | 1:49 shorthanded per game |
| Jonas Siegenthaler | PK2 | Stay-at-home defender | 1:39 shorthanded per game |
How the power play works. Hischier scored 11 power-play goals from the middle and net front, Jack Hughes and Bratt make plays from the flanks, and Luke Hughes quarterbacks. Evangelista gets the fifth spot after 17 power-play points in Nashville, and Mantha and Hamilton lead the second unit. On chances this was a top-six unit; better finishers should turn more of them into goals.
How the penalty kill works. Pesce and Dillon carry the defense, and Connor Brown and Hischier are the forward regulars. It was one of the best in the league at keeping chances down.
What to watch. The power-play goal rate. If the new shooters convert what the unit already creates, it moves into the top ten by goals, and that is the quickest way for the finishing problem to fade.
8What would change our view
- Jack Hughes's healthA full season makes this a top-ten team with room to spare. Another long absence drops it toward the playoff line.
- The creaseIf Allen holds up, fine. If not, a trade for a real starter would move the rating more than any skater move.
- FinishingTwo years at the bottom. If the new shooters change that early, our model will pick it up quickly.
- Pesce's healthHe missed more than half of last season. The blue line has little behind him.
- Kovacevic's returnPushes Chisholm out of the lineup and steadies the third pair.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.