Nashville Predators
Old stars, new depth, same problem
Nashville's veterans scored a lot of goals last season and still finished 22nd. The summer swapped two good forwards for several useful ones, and the core got a year older. Our model has the Predators 29th, about five points below the sportsbooks.
The bettor's bottom line
- A bottom-four team, priced like a bubble one. D- rating, 29th in the league, about 80 points over 84 games. The books sit at 85.5, about five points above us.
- The veterans still score. Stamkos, Forsberg and O'Reilly combined for more than 100 goals. They are all 32 or older, and age is the biggest reason the rating falls.
- A crease in transition. Juuse Saros had his second straight down year, and Justus Annunen was better. Our projection grades them the same, both close to average.
- Games open up around the net. No team gave up more goals from the slot. A decent penalty kill keeps some games closer than the even-strength play.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 34.9% win / 23.4% draw / 41.7% loss (2.87 / 4.27 / 2.40). On the road 27.7% win / 23.0% draw / 49.3% loss (3.60 / 4.35 / 2.03).
Two summers ago, Nashville spent big on Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault and got one of the worst seasons in franchise history. Last season was better on the scoresheet. Stamkos scored 42 goals, Filip Forsberg 40, and Ryan O'Reilly had 74 points. The Predators still finished 22nd with 86 points, out of the playoffs again.
This summer the plan shifted toward depth and youth. Luke Evangelista and Erik Haula left, and Mavrik Bourque, Jack Drury, Ross Colton, Alex Kerfoot and Nils Hoglander arrived. The prospect pool is one of the best in the league, but most of it is not in the NHL yet.
For bettors, the question is whether last season's scoring was a floor to build on or a peak for an old core. Our answer leans toward the second. On chances, Nashville was a below-average team, 22nd in the league, and it played about as well as its record. The core is among the oldest in the league, the summer took away two of its better forwards, and the team has shot poorly for years. That puts the Predators near the bottom.
That makes us a good deal cooler than the market, which prices Nashville as a fringe team. Most of the talk this summer was about the prospect pool and whether Juuse Saros should be traded after two down years. We think the trade talk is fair: Annunen was the better goalie last season, and Nashville is closer to the start of a rebuild than to a playoff spot.
1What last season really was
Nashville's 86 points were about what its play deserved.
| Measure | NSH | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 86 | 22nd | 5th in the Central |
| Goals for / against | 242 / 267 | -25 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 48.2% | 22nd | Below even |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 47.6% | 25th | Bottom eight |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 49.9% | 14th | Below even |
| Finishing, goals above expected | -9.1 | 20th | Below expected |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | +2.8 | 16th | -5.5 in the first half, +8.3 in the second |
On chances, the Predators were 22nd in the league, and 25th after our recalibration of shot quality. Their luck-adjusted rating is a touch below the actual one. Finishing was below expected again, and the goaltending was average overall: poor in the first half, good in the second.
The finishing is the pattern to notice. Nashville has scored below expected in four of the last five seasons, twice by huge margins. That is a lot of evidence, and our model keeps part of it, even with 40-goal scorers on the roster.
2How the model builds Nashville's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is below average. Measured on chances rather than results, Nashville was a bottom-third team last season.
Age is the biggest drag. Only six teams have an older lineup. Josi and Stamkos are 36, Marchessault and O'Reilly 35, and Forsberg and Skjei 32. Older teams tend to decline the next season.
The roster got thinner. Evangelista, a 56-point playmaker, and Haula, a strong two-way center, were two of the better forwards. The five arrivals are useful depth players, but none grades above C+. Only six teams lost more lineup quality this summer.
Finishing and the crease are a minus. Three seasons of shooting and goaltending together come out below average, mostly because of the shooting.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Drury | C | Defensive C / PK | Colorado | 82 GP · 10 G · 27 P | C+ | Useful. A defensive center and penalty killer from Colorado. |
| Mavrik Bourque | C | Middle-six all-rounder | Dallas | 82 GP · 20 G · 41 P | C+ | Upgrade. A 24-year-old who scored 20 goals in Dallas, signed long term. Starts as the third-line center. |
| Ross Colton | LW | Sniper | Colorado | 73 GP · 9 G · 24 P | C+ | Small. A physical depth scorer from Colorado. |
| Ilya Lyubushkin | D | Shutdown / PK | Dallas | 53 GP · 1 G · 9 P | C- | Small. A physical defensive defenseman from Dallas. |
| Nils Hoglander | LW | Middle-six all-rounder | Vancouver | 38 GP · 2 G · 5 P | C | Small. A former 20-goal scorer from Vancouver looking for a fresh start. |
| Adam Edstrom | C | Net-front depth | NY Rangers | 35 GP · 3 G · 5 P | D- | None. A big fourth-liner from the Rangers. |
| Alex Kerfoot | C | Defensive C / PK | Utah | 34 GP · 7 G · 13 P | C+ | Useful. A two-way forward from Utah who starts on the top line with Stamkos and O'Reilly. |
| Jack Ahcan | D | Sheltered puck mover | Colorado | 11 GP · 0 G · 2 P | n/a | None. Depth defenseman, starting in the press box. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Evangelista | RW | Playmaker | New Jersey | 81 GP · 12 G · 56 P | B+ | Real loss. A 24-year-old with 56 points who graded B+. Traded to New Jersey. |
| Erik Haula | C | Defensive C / PK | Los Angeles | 81 GP · 14 G · 38 P | B- | Loss. A two-way center and penalty killer, now in Los Angeles. |
| Fedor Svechkov | C | Middle-six all-rounder | Colorado | 70 GP · 4 G · 17 P | D- | None. Young depth center, traded to Colorado. |
| Ozzy Wiesblatt | RW | Energy / physical | Unsigned | 40 GP · 1 G · 5 P | E | None. Energy forward. |
| Zachary L'Heureux | LW | Net-front depth | Colorado | 25 GP · 4 G · 5 P | B- | Small loss. An agitator who graded well in a short season. Now in Colorado. |
Net: a step back. Nashville traded quality for quantity: two of its better forwards out, five depth forwards and a defenseman in. The lineup is deeper and weaker at the top.
Goalies and coach barely move it. Saros and Annunen are both back, and Andrew Brunette's record is close to neutral.
The result is a D- team, 29th in the league, projected for about 80 points. That puts Nashville between Chicago and Seattle, and last in the Central in our order. The books expect about five points more.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
O'Reilly is still the best player. At 35 he grades A-, a true two-way center, with 74 points and top penalty-kill minutes. Stamkos scored 42 goals but grades C+, because his value is almost all shooting now. Kerfoot joins them after a strong camp.
Forsberg carries the second line. He scored 40 goals and grades B+. Matthew Wood, 21, has been centering him and Nils Hoglander in camp. Wood grades D, a young player still learning the defensive side, so this is a line that scores and gives some back.
The depth is new. Bourque centers Marchessault, 35, and Colton on the third line, and Drury and Edstrom anchor the fourth. Most of them arrived this summer. None of them grades above C+, and by our grades the top six ranks among the five weakest in the league.
The blue line is Josi and not much else. Roman Josi grades A- and quarterbacks everything, with Ryan Ufko, 23, beside him to start. Skjei grades B- on the second pair, and Adam Wilsby B-. Hague, Perbix and Lyubushkin are all C- defensive players. The top four ranks near the bottom of the league.
4Who matters most
Josi is the player the price depends on most. He plays about 25 minutes a night, runs the power play, and the next best puck mover on the roster is far behind him. When a big-minute defenseman sits, his ice time goes to someone much worse, and at 36 he missed 14 games last season.
Among the forwards, O'Reilly matters more than the two 40-goal scorers, because he plays both ways and kills penalties. On game day, check Josi and O'Reilly first.
5Goaltending: the backup was better
Juuse Saros was one of the best goalies in the league a few seasons ago. The last two have been ordinary. Last season he was below expected overall, with bad months in November, January and February. Justus Annunen, the backup, finished well above expected, with a strong March and April, and then won the World Championship final for Finland with a shutout.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen | -1.7 (2) | -6.1 (6) | +2.5 (4) | -0.8 (4) | +1.4 (3) | +6.3 (6) | +6.7 (3) | +8.3 |
| Juuse Saros | +0.2 (10) | -7.6 (9) | +4.8 (11) | -5.4 (12) | -5.1 (3) | +5.4 (9) | -1.5 (5) | -9.2 |
Our projection weighs three seasons, so it still gives Saros credit for his peak, and grades both goalies C, close to average. The common view is that Saros should be traded and Annunen given the job. On the numbers, that is a reasonable call; it would not change the rating much either way.
With 11 back-to-back sets and two goalies of similar quality, starts should be close to even. A trade of Saros would matter more for the rebuild than for nightly prices.
6Nashville's system: how they score and defend
Andrew Brunette's teams lean toward possession, block few shots and hit a bit more than average. Nashville's shot profile last season fit that, and it showed the weakness: opponents got to the slot and scored there more than against any other team.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Mild possession lean | Mild possession lean (a short career, two seasons here) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | +0.4 SD | A few more shots than average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | -0.1 SD | About average |
| Blocked shots per 60 | -1.0 SD | Blocks far fewer than average |
| Hits per 60 | +0.3 SD | More hits than average |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | No measurable boost or drag |
| Measure | NSH | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 226 | 238 | 13th fewest |
| Shot attempts | 3,460 | 3,470 | 14th fewest |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 85.0% | 85.4% | 10th lowest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5th lowest |
| Goals off rebounds | 14.2% | 13.1% | 11th highest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 53.5% | 54.1% | 12th lowest |
| Goals on the power play | 26.5% | 23.1% | 6th highest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 247 | 238 | 8th most |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,594 | 3,470 | 10th most |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 31.8% | 31.6% | 14th highest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 7.2% | 8.1% | 3rd lowest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 15.8% | 13.1% | 5th highest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 21.1% | 23.1% | 9th lowest |
Offense: rebounds, not the rush. Nashville took the fourth-most rebound shots in the league but was near the bottom in rush chances. The goals came from veterans working the net and the power play, which scored a high share of the team's goals.
Defense: the slot leaks. Opponents scored more goals from the slot against Nashville than against any other team, and more off rebounds than against all but four. Only seven teams allowed more goals overall. A blue line that blocks few shots and a lot of new depth forwards make this the part to watch.
What it means for scoring. Nashville's games averaged 6.21 total goals last season: 2.95 for and 3.26 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings expect an offense just below the middle, a defense in the bottom eight, and games close to the league average in goals.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 8.39 | 8th | 6.39 | 28th | 4.5 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 6.14 | 4th | 7.11 | 10th | 4.8 |
Both units scored more than their chances. The power play was eighth by goals but 28th by chances, and the penalty kill was fourth by goals and tenth by chances allowed.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg | PP1 | Half-wall shooter | 26 PP points; 11 PP goals |
| Steven Stamkos | PP1 | The one-timer | 23 PP points; 14 PP goals, 10th in the NHL |
| Roman Josi | PP1 | Quarterback at the point | 21 PP points |
| Ryan O'Reilly | PP1, PK1 | Bumper and net front | 18 PP points; 5 PP goals; 1:49 shorthanded per game |
| Matthew Wood | PP1 | Young net-front forward | 7 PP points |
| Brady Skjei | PK1 | Penalty-kill workhorse | 2:40 shorthanded per game |
| Nicolas Hague | PK1 | Shutdown defender | 2:02 shorthanded per game |
| Alex Kerfoot | PK1 | New penalty-killing forward | 1:29 shorthanded per game with Utah |
| Jack Drury | PK2 | Second-unit penalty killer | 1:59 shorthanded per game with Colorado |
How the power play works. Josi runs it from the top, Forsberg works the half-wall with 26 power-play points, and Stamkos is still the one-timer threat, with 14 power-play goals. O'Reilly plays the middle. Veterans converting few chances at a high rate is the kind of result that tends to slip.
How the penalty kill works. Skjei carries the most minutes, with O'Reilly and Hague. Haula was a regular penalty killer and left; Kerfoot and Drury, both specialists, replace him.
What to watch. The power play. It created very few chances last season, and if it scores closer to what it creates, Nashville loses one of its few strengths.
8What would change our view
- Saros's futureA trade would say the rebuild has started, and more veterans could follow by the deadline.
- The old coreIf Stamkos, O'Reilly, Josi and Marchessault hold up another year, the Predators beat this rating. A sharp decline from any of them sinks it.
- BourqueA real second-line center at 24 would change how the lineup looks for years.
- The prospectsBrady Martin and others are close. Call-ups would lower the lineup's age quickly.
- FinishingFour poor years out of five. A normal shooting season would be worth several points.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.