Minnesota Wild
Hughes changes everything, for one year at least
Minnesota traded for Quinn Hughes in December, knocked out Dallas in the spring, and enters the season with two of the best players in the league. Our model has the Wild ninth, a clear playoff team, but a few points below the sportsbooks. An older lineup and a goalie on the mend keep us from going higher.
The bettor's bottom line
- A good team, priced a little high. B- rating, 9th in the league, about 99 points over 84 games. The books sit at 102.5. We like the Wild, just not quite that much.
- Hughes and Kaprizov carry the price. Both grade A+. With Faber hurt, Hughes is the whole top pair, and his minutes matter more than any other player's.
- Wallstedt's crease until November. Gustavsson is out after hip surgery. Wallstedt was solid last season, and 34-year-old Calvin Pickard backs him up for now.
- A grinding style. Minnesota blocks shots, keeps teams out of the slot, and scores a lot on the power play. Games stay close to the league average in goals.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 45.4% win / 23.3% draw / 31.2% loss (2.20 / 4.29 / 3.20). On the road 38.0% win / 23.3% draw / 38.8% loss (2.63 / 4.30 / 2.58).
The Wild made the trade of the season in December, landing Quinn Hughes from Vancouver. By spring they were good enough to beat Dallas in six games in the first round. Then they ran into Colorado, the Presidents' Trophy winner, and lost in five.
Now comes the harder part. Hughes is in the last year of his contract, and whether he signs an extension is the biggest story in Minnesota. The summer also cost the Wild three of their top seven goal scorers: Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Johansson and Vladimir Tarasenko. Blake Coleman and Olli Maatta arrived from Calgary.
For bettors, the question is how much a full season of Hughes is worth. Our answer: a lot, but not everything. Minnesota was a top-six team on chances last season, and a little lucky on top of that. A full year of Hughes and the Calgary trade make the lineup better than last season's. An older roster and the injuries to Gustavsson and Brock Faber take some of it back. The result is a clear playoff team, not a contender.
That makes us a little cooler than the market and far warmer than Paul Bissonnette, who picked the Wild to miss the playoffs on TNT because of their centers and the Hughes contract. The common hope in Minnesota is a first trip to the conference final since 2003. We would not bet against it, but the path runs through Colorado and Dallas again.
1What last season really was
Minnesota's 104 points were built on real play, with a little help.
| Measure | MIN | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 104 | 7th | 3rd in the Central |
| Goals for / against | 268 / 235 | +33 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 52.3% | 6th | Top six |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 52.3% | 6th | Top six after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 49.5% | 15th | A little above even |
| Finishing, goals above expected | +2.1 | 12th | Slightly above expected |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | +7.9 | 12th | +13.4 in the first half, -5.5 in the second |
On chances, the Wild were sixth in the league, and their luck-adjusted rating is a bit below the actual one. The gap came from the first half, when the goalies were well above expected and the team banked 55 points. After the break, the goaltending cooled and the points followed.
That is the normal pattern: a hot first half in net, then a return to average. Finishing was close to expected. Minnesota's shooting has swung around over five seasons, but last season it was just about normal, so there is little to correct there.
2How the model builds Minnesota's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is strong. Measured on chances rather than results, Minnesota was a solid playoff team last season.
The roster got better. A full season of Hughes, who played 48 games after the trade, plus Coleman and Maatta, outweighs the loss of Zuccarello, Johansson and Tarasenko. Only six teams added more lineup quality this summer.
Age is the biggest drag. Only five teams have an older lineup. Spurgeon is 36, Bogosian 36, Nick Foligno 38, Marcus Foligno 35 and Coleman 34. Older teams tend to decline the next season, and this pulls the rating down about as much as the roster pushes it up.
The crease costs a little. Gustavsson, the better goalie by our projection, misses about a month after hip surgery, and Pickard fills in.
Finishing and goaltending over three seasons are neutral.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard | G | Goalie | Edmonton | 16 GP · -3.5 GSAx | D- | Stopgap. A 34-year-old backup from Edmonton who fills in until Gustavsson returns. |
| Blake Coleman | RW | Net-front depth | Calgary | 69 GP · 20 G · 35 P | B+ | Upgrade. Scored 20 goals in Calgary and was one of the best even-strength forwards there. Kills penalties. |
| Maxim Shabanov | RW | Middle-six all-rounder | NY Islanders | 44 GP · 5 G · 18 P | D+ | Question mark. A skilled winger from the Islanders, handed a top-line spot next to Kaprizov. |
| Olli Maatta | D | Shutdown / PK | Calgary | 43 GP · 2 G · 15 P | B | Upgrade. A steady defensive defenseman who graded well in Calgary. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Tarasenko | RW | Sniper | Unsigned | 75 GP · 23 G · 47 P | D | Small loss. Scored 23 goals, but his all-around game graded low. |
| Jake Middleton | D | Shutdown / PK | Calgary | 75 GP · 2 G · 16 P | C | Small loss. A physical penalty-killing defenseman, traded to Calgary. |
| Marcus Johansson | LW | Playmaker | Unsigned | 75 GP · 15 G · 49 P | C+ | Loss. A 49-point playmaker who played up and down the lineup. |
| Mats Zuccarello | RW | Playmaker | Los Angeles | 59 GP · 15 G · 54 P | A- | Real loss. Had 54 points in 59 games and graded A-. Now in Los Angeles. |
| Tyler Pitlick | RW | Energy / physical | Unsigned | 32 GP · 2 G · 2 P | D- | None. Depth forward. |
| Ben Jones | C | Energy / physical | Calgary | 28 GP · 1 G · 3 P | E+ | None. Depth forward, went to Calgary in the Coleman trade. |
Net: a small upgrade on paper. Coleman and Maatta are better fits than the players they replace, and Zuccarello's playmaking is the one real hole. The bigger gain is a full season of Hughes.
Hughes played 48 games after the December trade. Michael McCarron, Bobby Brink and Nick Foligno all arrived at the March deadline. A full season of all four makes this a better team than the one that finished with 104 points, before age and injuries take their cut.
The coach is neutral. John Hynes's long career is close to average, and his work here is already in the starting point.
The result is a B- team, 9th in the league, projected for about 99 points. That puts Minnesota between Montreal and New Jersey, and third in the Central behind Colorado and Dallas. The books are about three points higher.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
Two stars, split across two lines. Kirill Kaprizov scored 45 goals and 89 points and grades A+. Matt Boldy, with 42 goals, grades A. Hynes keeps them apart: Kaprizov with Danila Yurov and Maxim Shabanov, Boldy with Coleman and Joel Eriksson Ek, who grades A- as a two-way center.
Center is the soft spot. Yurov grades C- and Shabanov D+, so Kaprizov's line leans on him more than any line in the league should. That is the weakness Bissonnette pointed to, and our grades agree. A trade for a real second-line center would change the rating.
The depth is veteran and sturdy. Ryan Hartman scored 23 goals, and the Foligno brothers and McCarron make a hard fourth line. Nobody below the top six grades above C+.
The blue line is Hughes and veterans. Hughes grades A+ and played nearly 28 minutes a night after the trade. Spurgeon and Maatta grade B, and Brodin B-. Faber, who grades B, is out, which leaves Bogosian and a young player in regular minutes. When Faber returns, this is a top-two defense by our grades.
4Who matters most
Kaprizov is the face of the team, but Hughes is the player the price depends on most. He plays almost half the game, runs the power play, and with Faber out there is no one behind him who can do either job. When a big-minute defenseman sits, his ice time goes to someone much worse, and that is especially true of a player who plays 28 minutes.
Among the forwards, Kaprizov and Boldy both drive their own lines, so one missing star costs less than on a team with one scoring line. On game day, check Hughes first, then the goalie.
5Goaltending
Minnesota's crease was a strength in the first half and average after it. Filip Gustavsson was strong in November and December, and Jesper Wallstedt, 23, had a big November and a strong April. Gustavsson had hip surgery this summer and is expected back in November.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson | -3.3 (9) | +5.4 (8) | +5.6 (8) | -1.4 (9) | -1.0 (3) | +0.5 (9) | -4.5 (4) | +1.3 |
| Jesper Wallstedt | -2.0 (3) | +7.2 (6) | +1.9 (7) | -4.4 (7) | -2.0 (2) | +0.3 (6) | +5.1 (4) | +6.1 |
Our projection grades Gustavsson B and Wallstedt C-. That looks low for Wallstedt after a good rookie season, but young goalies with short NHL records get pulled toward average until they prove it over more games. The month-by-month table shows why: big months and poor ones in the same season. The common view is that Minnesota has one of the better tandems in the league. We see one good goalie and one promising one.
Until November, Pickard backs up. He grades D- and was below expected in Edmonton. Minnesota has only 10 back-to-back sets, so he will not play often, but when he does, the price should lean against the Wild. Confirm the starter.
6Minnesota's system: how they score and defend
John Hynes's teams grind: they block shots, hit more than average and protect the slot. Last season's Wild fit that exactly. Opponents took plenty of shots but got to the slot less than against any other team, and Minnesota scored a lot on the power play.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Grind / defend-first | Grind / defend-first (a long career, two seasons here) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | -0.5 SD | A few more shots than average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | +0.3 SD | More shots against than average |
| Blocked shots per 60 | +1.2 SD | Blocks many more than average |
| Hits per 60 | +0.4 SD | More hits than average |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | A small, uncertain plus |
| Measure | MIN | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 250 | 238 | 12th most |
| Shot attempts | 3,624 | 3,470 | 5th most |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 85.5% | 85.4% | 15th highest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.8% | 2.7% | 11th highest |
| Goals off rebounds | 11.2% | 13.1% | 10th lowest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 54.0% | 54.1% | 15th lowest |
| Goals on the power play | 27.2% | 23.1% | 5th highest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 220 | 238 | 4th fewest |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,658 | 3,470 | 6th most |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 28.4% | 31.6% | 1st lowest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5th lowest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 13.6% | 13.1% | 11th highest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 21.8% | 23.1% | 11th lowest |
Offense: volume and the power play. The Wild took the fifth-most shot attempts in the league and got to the slot more than most. Only four teams scored a higher share of their goals on the power play. Rebound goals were rare, so most of the scoring came from Kaprizov and Boldy beating goalies clean.
Defense: give up the outside, protect the middle. Opponents took the sixth-most attempts but the lowest share from the slot in the league, and Minnesota allowed the fourth-fewest goals. Hughes and a veteran, shot-blocking blue line are why it works.
What it means for scoring. Minnesota's games averaged 6.13 total goals last season: 3.27 for and 2.87 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings expect an offense just above the middle, a defense in the middle, and games a bit more open than average.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 8.47 | 6th | 7.25 | 17th | 4.8 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 7.11 | 16th | 7.27 | 14th | 4.1 |
The power play scored more than its chances: sixth by goals but 17th by chances. The penalty kill was average, 16th by goals and 14th by chances allowed.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Hughes | PP1 | Quarterback at the point | 30 PP points, 10th in the NHL |
| Kirill Kaprizov | PP1 | The finisher | 25 PP points; 19 PP goals, 3rd in the NHL |
| Matt Boldy | PP1 | Flank shooter | 24 PP points; 11 PP goals |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | PP1 | Net-front center | 15 PP points; 7 PP goals |
| Ryan Hartman | PP1 | Bumper and finisher | 8 PP points; 6 PP goals |
| Michael McCarron | PK1 | Lead penalty-killing forward | 2:12 shorthanded per game |
| Blake Coleman | PK1 | New penalty killer | 2:05 shorthanded per game with Calgary |
| Jonas Brodin | PK1 | Shot-blocking defender | 1:53 shorthanded per game |
| Jared Spurgeon | PK1 | Veteran penalty killer | 1:41 shorthanded per game |
How the power play works. Hughes quarterbacks with 30 power-play points, tenth in the league. Kaprizov scored 19 power-play goals, third in the league, and Boldy added 11. Eriksson Ek works the net front and Hartman the middle. With a full season of Hughes on the point, this unit should get more chances than last season's.
How the penalty kill works. McCarron and Coleman are the forward regulars, with Brodin and Spurgeon on the back end. Faber, one of the regulars, is out to start the season. Middleton, a regular penalty killer, went to Calgary.
What to watch. The power play's chances. If a full season of Hughes lifts it from middle of the pack to top ten by chances, the goals should hold even when the shooting cools.
8What would change our view
- Hughes's contractAn extension settles the season. A stalemate brings trade talk by the deadline, and a trade would change everything.
- Gustavsson's returnBack on time in November, he lifts the crease above average. A setback leaves Pickard in the backup role longer.
- A second-line centerA trade for a real center behind Eriksson Ek would fix the lineup's one clear hole.
- The veteransSpurgeon, Bogosian and the Folignos are all 35 or older. A sharp drop would hurt the depth.
- FaberA quick return from the concussion restores a top-two defense by our grades.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.