Florida Panthers
The skaters are back. The goaltending is not.
Florida went from two straight Cups to 25th in the league, then got its captain back and traded for Brady Tkachuk. Our model agrees the lineup is elite again and sees a playoff team. It is much less sure about the crease, and that keeps us well below the sportsbooks.
The bettor's bottom line
- A good team, priced like a great one. B- rating, 7th in the league, about 98 points over 84 games. The sportsbooks sit at 107.5 and make Florida a Cup co-favorite. We see a playoff team with a hole in goal.
- The centers carry the price. Barkov is back, and with Bennett and Lundell behind him Florida is as strong down the middle as anyone. A long absence from one of them moves our number more than any winger's.
- The goalie question is real. Our projection grades Jacob Markstrom E and Akira Schmid C-. The younger backup may be the better bet, so confirm the starter before you bet.
- Watch goals against, not shots against. Florida still controlled play last season. It lost games because pucks went in. If that stops in October, our rating will climb fast.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 46.3% win / 23.3% draw / 30.5% loss (2.16 / 4.30 / 3.28). On the road 38.8% win / 23.3% draw / 37.9% loss (2.58 / 4.30 / 2.64).
For three springs the road to the Stanley Cup ran through Sunrise. Florida reached three straight Finals and won the last two. Then Aleksander Barkov tore his ACL and MCL in training camp, Matthew Tkachuk played 31 games, and the two-time champions finished 25th with 84 points. They missed the playoffs for the first time since 2018-19.
The summer answer was loud. Bill Zito sent two first-round picks and more to Ottawa for Brady Tkachuk, reuniting the brothers. Sergei Bobrovsky left for Toronto and Markstrom came back to the team that drafted him. So the bettor's question: was last season a blip caused by injuries, or the start of the decline of an old, expensive core?
Our answer is mostly a blip. Florida still out-shot most of the league last season. Its finishing and its goaltending sank it. The first should improve with a healthy Barkov and a second Tkachuk. The second is where we part ways with nearly everyone.
That makes us cooler than the crowd. NHL.com projects 106 points and a top-three finish in the Atlantic, Daily Faceoff picks Florida for another Eastern Conference Final, and the sportsbooks make the Panthers Atlantic favorites and Cup co-favorites. We agree with the two worries every preview names: health and an aging blue line. We differ on how much a Markstrom-Schmid tandem can hold up behind this roster. Barkov as the Selke favorite is easy to back. A title contender with a bottom-two goaltending projection is harder.
1What last season really was
Florida's results were bad. Its underlying play was about average, and its shot share was still among the league's best.
| Measure | FLA | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 84 | 25th | 7th in the Atlantic |
| Goals for / against | 246 / 274 | -28 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 50.0% | 18th | Even on chances |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 50.2% | 17th | No change after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 52.5% | 5th | Top-five shot share |
| Finishing, goals above expected | -19.2 | 26th | Poor finishing again |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | -8.8 | 26th | -1.2 in the first half, -7.6 in the second |
The gap between process and results came from two places. Florida scored well below its expected goals and its goalies stopped fewer pucks than expected. Strip both out, and last season's team rates close to the league average. That is a much better starting point than 25th place.
The finishing is the part that does not wash out. Florida has scored fewer goals than its chances deserved in four straight seasons, including both Cup years. Those teams won through elite goaltending and suppression. Last season the goaltending went too. Goaltending fell off after New Year's, and Florida took 47 points from the first half and 37 from the second. The home record held up (49 points) while the road record collapsed (35).
2How the model builds Florida's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is average. Measured on chances rather than results, Florida was a middle-of-the-pack team last season, well above its standings finish.
The roster moves are the biggest push up in the league. A healthy Barkov is worth more than any free agent, and Brady Tkachuk is one of the best power forwards in hockey. Marchand missing October takes a small bite out of it.
Age and finishing pull the other way. Florida's lineup is older than most, with Marchand at 38, Eller at 37 and Gudas at 36, and older teams tend to decline. Years of scoring below expected goals also cost a little, because that pattern tends to carry over.
The goalie change is a small plus, from a low base. Markstrom and Schmid project slightly better than what Bobrovsky gave Florida last season. As a group, though, the crease still ranks near the bottom of the league (section 5).
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom | G | Goalie | New Jersey | 44 GP · -11.9 GSAx | E | The big question. A former Vezina finalist, but 36 and well below expected in New Jersey last season. Our projection ranks him near the bottom of NHL goalies. |
| Akira Schmid | G | Goalie | Vegas | 34 GP · -1.0 GSAx | C- | Small plus. Close to league average in Vegas at 26. On our numbers the better of the two. |
| Lars Eller | C | Defensive C / PK | Ottawa | 68 GP · 5 G · 15 P | D+ | Small. Veteran fourth-line center and penalty killer on a one-year deal. |
| Garnet Hathaway | RW | Energy / physical | Philadelphia | 66 GP · 1 G · 3 P | C | Small. Hits and penalty killing on the fourth line. |
| Brady Tkachuk | LW | Power forward | Ottawa | 60 GP · 22 G · 59 P | A+ | Clear upgrade. 59 points in 60 games in Ottawa and a net-front power forward. Starts on Barkov's wing. |
| Radko Gudas | D | Physical depth | Anaheim | 56 GP · 2 G · 13 P | C- | Small plus. A physical third-pair defenseman back for a second stint, signed for six years at 36. |
| Bokondji Imama | LW | Energy / physical | Pittsburgh | 2 GP · 0 G · 0 P | D | None. Won the last fourth-line spot in camp with size and toughness. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Greer | LW | Net-front depth | Anaheim | 78 GP · 17 G · 32 P | D+ | Small loss. A 17-goal depth winger, gone to Anaheim in the Gudas deal. |
| Mackie Samoskevich | RW | Sniper | Seattle | 77 GP · 12 G · 32 P | B- | Real loss. A young scoring winger who grades B-, traded to Seattle for a first-round pick. |
| Jesper Boqvist | C | Energy / physical | New Jersey | 73 GP · 4 G · 13 P | D | None. Depth forward, part of the Markstrom trade. |
| Evan Rodrigues | C | Two-way top C | New Jersey | 69 GP · 11 G · 31 P | B- | Real loss. A versatile middle-six forward who could play anywhere in the top nine. The price for Markstrom. |
| Luke Kunin | RW | Energy / physical | UFA, unsigned | 62 GP · 4 G · 10 P | E-- | None. Depth forward, still unsigned. |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | G | Goalie | Toronto | 52 GP · -12.2 GSAx | E- | No loss on our numbers. Two Cups in Florida, but well below expected last season at 37. |
| Noah Gregor | C | Middle-six all-rounder | Winnipeg | 37 GP · 4 G · 9 P | E-- | None. Depth forward. |
| Daniil Tarasov | G | Goalie | Detroit | 33 GP · -1.8 GSAx | D+ | Small loss. The steadier of last season's two goalies, close to average. |
| Tomas Nosek | C | Defensive C / PK | Czechia (Pardubice) | 21 GP · 2 G · 4 P | C | None. Depth center, back home in Czechia. |
| Jack Studnicka | C | Middle-six all-rounder | Philadelphia | 19 GP · 0 G · 0 P | n/a | None. Organizational depth. |
| Mike Benning | D | Sheltered puck mover | Calgary | 18 GP · 2 G · 6 P | n/a | None. Depth defenseman. |
| Vinnie Hinostroza | RW | Middle-six all-rounder | Colorado | 17 GP · 3 G · 8 P | E-- | None. Depth forward. |
| Nolan Foote | LW | Net-front depth | Philadelphia | 12 GP · 1 G · 1 P | n/a | None. Organizational depth. |
Net: a much stronger top of the lineup and a thinner middle. Florida traded Rodrigues and Samoskevich, two useful middle-six forwards, to fund Tkachuk and Markstrom, and filled the bottom six with veterans in their mid-30s.
The table leaves out the biggest addition of all. Barkov did not play a game last season, so his return is a full addition: an A-grade two-way center back on the top line. With Matthew Tkachuk also back from an injury-shortened season, Florida gets two of its three best forwards back on top of the trade.
The coach is neutral. Paul Maurice starts his fifth season in Florida with more than 2,000 games behind an NHL bench. Over that career his teams have measured close to average once the rosters are accounted for.
The result is a B- team, 7th in the league, projected for about 98 points. That is a comfortable playoff team, just behind Dallas and Vegas. It is also third among Atlantic teams, behind Tampa Bay and Ottawa, where the books have Florida first. Books usually beat preseason models on season totals, so we hold that view loosely. The gap comes from two things the market seems to trust more than we do: the goalies and a lineup whose best players are over 30.
Where we could be wrong. The likeliest miss is the healthy lineup. With Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk back and Brady Tkachuk added, no team gains more lineup quality this fall. Our model credits a star returning from injury at the same rate as any other addition. That is what seven seasons of history support: teams getting stars back have not beaten that credit on average. The sample is small, though. Barkov's teams have played far better with him than without him, and if this lineup plays like the Cup teams did, our number is too low.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
The best top six in hockey. Our player ratings rank Florida's top six first in the league. Both Tkachuks grade A+ (96), and Barkov and Reinhart A+ (95). Barkov is the Selke favorite again, and nothing in his last full season argues against it. Brady Tkachuk had five points in two preseason games before a minor tweak.
Bennett and Lundell make the middle deep. Bennett centers the second line between Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk, and Lundell anchors a third line with Luostarinen that shuts down other teams' top players. The third line is widely seen as the best third line in the league once Marchand is back, and we would not argue.
The weak spot is the bottom of the lineup. Sandis Vilmanis holds the third-line wing until Marchand returns. The fourth line of Imama, Eller and Hathaway grades from C down to D and will not score much.
The blue line is good, not great. Forsling grades B (72) and remains one of the league's best defensive defensemen, with Seth Jones (B) the other steady piece. As a group the blue line ranks in the lower half of the league. The top four are all 30 or 31, and the third pair of Kulikov and Gudas is 35 and 36. Over 84 games, that age is a real risk.
4Who matters most
Fans will watch the Tkachuks. Our absence research points to the centers and the top pair. Barkov, Bennett and Lundell play the hard minutes at both ends, and when one of them sits the next man up is Eller. That is a steep drop for a team built on controlling the middle of the ice.
The same logic applies to Forsling. Defensemen who play big minutes matter more to the nightly price than their profile suggests, because their minutes go to someone worse, and Florida's third pair is old. After Barkov's lost season, his knee is the single biggest variable in this preview.
5Goaltending: the end of the Bobrovsky era
Bobrovsky was the goalie of two Cup runs, and last season he could not hold it together. A strong December gave way to a January far below expected, and Daniil Tarasov was close to average in a backup role. Both are gone. Florida brought back Markstrom, who spent his first four NHL seasons with the club, and traded a third-round pick for Schmid.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov | -0.1 (3) | -0.4 (5) | -0.9 (5) | +2.3 (5) | -0.7 (2) | -2.7 (7) | +0.7 (6) | -1.8 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | -0.8 (8) | -4.6 (9) | +3.6 (10) | -8.4 (10) | -2.4 (4) | +2.2 (8) | -1.7 (3) | -12.1 |
The common view is that Markstrom is a bounce-back candidate in a better defensive structure. Our projection is less generous. Markstrom grades E after a .883 save percentage and 11.9 goals below expected in New Jersey, and goalies at 36 rarely rebound. Schmid grades C-, close to league average, and he is ten years younger. On our numbers he is the better bet for the job.
Florida has not announced a split. Markstrom is listed as the primary starter, and with 14 back-to-back sets on the schedule Schmid will play plenty. As a group, Florida's goaltending ranks 31st in our projection, and that is already in the rating. The structure in front of them should help: Florida allowed fewer shot attempts than most teams last season. For bettors, the nightly starter matters more here than on most contenders. Confirm it before you bet.
6Florida's system: how they score and defend
Paul Maurice's teams have a clear signature: forecheck hard, hold the puck, shoot a lot and give up little. Florida played that way again last season. It had one of the top shot shares in the league and allowed fewer attempts than most teams. The problem showed up at the end of the play, where too many of the chances it did allow ended up in the net.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Heavy forecheck + puck control | Heavy forecheck and puck control (with Florida and Winnipeg) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | +0.7 SD | More shots than average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | -0.7 SD | Suppresses shots against |
| Blocked shots per 60 | -0.9 SD | Few blocks: prevention over collapsing |
| Hits per 60 | +1.3 SD | Physical: well above average |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | Measured over a long career in Hartford / Carolina, Toronto, Winnipeg and Florida; no measurable boost or drag |
| Measure | FLA | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 236 | 238 | 16th most |
| Shot attempts | 3,610 | 3,470 | 6th most |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 85.0% | 85.4% | 11th lowest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.4% | 2.7% | 7th lowest |
| Goals off rebounds | 15.3% | 13.1% | 8th highest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 56.8% | 54.1% | 7th highest |
| Goals on the power play | 25.0% | 23.1% | 11th highest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 252 | 238 | 7th most |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,337 | 3,470 | 9th fewest |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 32.2% | 31.6% | 10th highest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 8.5% | 8.1% | 11th highest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 15.1% | 13.1% | 10th highest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 23.8% | 23.1% | 13th highest |
Offense: volume over speed. Florida took the sixth-most shot attempts in the league but few off the rush. It scores by winning pucks back in the offensive zone and getting to the net, which is why it ranked high in goals from the slot and from rebounds. Brady Tkachuk fits that style perfectly.
Defense: few shots, too many goals. Opponents took fewer attempts against Florida than against most teams, yet it allowed the seventh-most goals, with too many from the slot and off rebounds. A structure that works and a crease that did not.
What it means for scoring. Panthers games averaged 6.34 total goals last season: 3.00 for and 3.34 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings carry that into 2026-27: an offense in the middle of the league and a below-average defense, mostly because of the goaltending, which makes Florida's games a little more open than the league average.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 7.26 | 15th | 8.33 | 4th | 5.0 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 6.43 | 8th | 6.20 | 3rd | 5.1 |
The power play scored at a middle-of-the-pack rate despite creating some of the league's best chances, fourth by expected goals. The penalty kill was one of the best in the league at limiting chances and allowed few goals.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Reinhart | PP1, PK1 | Finisher, two-way anchor | 24 PP points; 11 PP goals; 1:51 shorthanded per game |
| Brady Tkachuk | PP1 | New net-front force | 19 PP points; 5 PP goals with Ottawa |
| Matthew Tkachuk | PP1 | Half-wall playmaker | 11 PP points |
| Aaron Ekblad | PP1, PK1 | Point man, top killer | 4 PP points; 2:39 shorthanded per game |
| Aleksander Barkov | PP1, PK1 | The returning captain | Did not play in the NHL last season |
| Seth Jones | PP2 | Second-unit quarterback | 16 PP points; 5 PP goals |
| Anton Lundell | PP2 | Second-unit center | 15 PP points |
| Gustav Forsling | PK1 | Top killer on defense | 2:52 shorthanded per game, 10th most in the NHL |
| Niko Mikkola | PK2 | Size on the back end | 2:16 shorthanded per game |
How the power play works. Reinhart is the finisher, with 11 power-play goals last season, and Matthew Tkachuk runs the play from the half-wall. The two new pieces change its look. Brady Tkachuk brings his net-front game from Ottawa, and Barkov returns after missing all of last season, giving the unit its best two-way center back. Ekblad handles the point.
Why it should convert more. A unit that creates top-five chances and scores at a middle-of-the-pack rate is usually unlucky rather than bad. Add a net-front forward and a playmaking center, and there is good reason to expect the goals to catch up with the chances. Maurice's teams also draw more power plays than most, which gives the unit more time to do it.
How the penalty kill works. Forsling carries the heaviest load, close to three minutes a night and among the most in the league, with Ekblad and Mikkola behind him. Reinhart and Barkov killing penalties is a luxury few teams have: two of the league's best defensive forwards who are also threats to score shorthanded.
What to watch. Barkov's workload. He plays on both units, and after a lost season, how quickly he gets back to full minutes shapes both. With him, expect both units to finish above average.
8What would change our view
- The crease in OctoberIf Markstrom is close to league average in his first 15 starts, the biggest weakness in our rating goes away and the number climbs toward the market's.
- Barkov's kneeHe has not played an NHL game since June 2025. A setback would hurt more than any other absence on the roster.
- Marchand's returnExpected around November. He completes the third line and adds finishing to a team that has lacked it.
- FinishingIf this group starts scoring at the rate its chances deserve, Florida will look like the Cup team the market sees.
- An old blue lineFour 30-somethings in the top four and a third pair at 35 and 36. Injuries here would expose thin depth.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.