Detroit Red Wings
Chaos upstairs, a decent team on the ice
Detroit's summer was a mess: a tenth straight spring without playoffs, Steve Yzerman gone, the captain asking out and a top defenseman unsigned. The market has priced in the turmoil. Our model sees a young, league-average team with a good goalie, and sits about six points above the sportsbooks.
The bettor's bottom line
- A middle-of-the-pack team, priced like a bad one. C rating, 14th in the league, about 91 points over 84 games. The books sit at 85.5. The gap comes from the headlines, not the hockey.
- Larkin and Edvinsson are the swing. If the captain is traded or Edvinsson stays unsigned, our number drops. Until then, the core that played last season is intact.
- A real goalie pair. John Gibson grades B, and Daniil Tarasov is a big upgrade on last season's backup. The crease is not the problem.
- Watch the penalty kill. It gave up more chances than all but four teams, and it is the weakest part of the team.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 42.3% win / 23.4% draw / 34.3% loss (2.36 / 4.27 / 2.92). On the road 34.8% win / 23.4% draw / 41.8% loss (2.87 / 4.27 / 2.39).
For most of last season, Detroit looked like it had finally broken through. The Red Wings held a playoff spot for about 80% of the year and had 69 points after 53 games. Then they won two of their last ten, finished with 92 points and missed the playoffs for a tenth straight spring, the longest drought in franchise history.
The summer made it worse. Steve Yzerman left the front office, Dylan Larkin asked for a trade, and Simon Edvinsson, one of the team's best young defensemen, is still unsigned as camp ends. The Red Wings open Friday against the Rangers with no permanent general manager and a captain who has named four places he would go.
That is a lot of noise, and bettors should separate it from the team. On chances, Detroit was a league-average team last season, and its results matched. Nothing in the full-season numbers says the team was worse than that. The roster that returns is young, and the backup goalie is much better.
That puts us warmer than the crowd. Daily Faceoff predicts last place in the Atlantic, and the market has the Red Wings around 85 points. We have them sixth in the division, clearly ahead of Boston and Toronto. If Larkin is traded for futures or Edvinsson sits into November, the gap closes. Until one of those happens, the pessimism looks overdone.
1What last season really was
Detroit's 92 points were about what its play deserved.
| Measure | DET | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 92 | 15th | 6th in the Atlantic |
| Goals for / against | 239 / 254 | -15 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 50.4% | 16th | Just above even |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 49.6% | 20th | Just below even |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 49.1% | 19th | A little above even |
| Finishing, goals above expected | -17.5 | 24th | Bottom nine |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | -1.6 | 21st | -4.3 in the first half, +2.7 in the second |
On chances, the Red Wings were exactly average: 16th by expected-goal share, 20th after our recalibration. Their luck-adjusted rating is a little below the actual one, and the two roughly match. The shooters scored below expected, and the goaltending was a little below average.
The collapse after the break was real in the standings, 51 points in the first half and 41 in the second, but the goaltending actually improved. Detroit's finishing has swung hard from year to year, from far above expected three seasons ago to well below the last two, so there is no pattern to lean on. We expect it to be closer to average.
2How the model builds Detroit's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is a bit below average. Measured on chances rather than results, Detroit was a slightly below-average team last season.
Youth pushes it up. Only seven teams have a younger lineup. Seider, Raymond, Kasper, Finnie, Danielson and Sandin-Pellikka are all 25 or younger, and young teams tend to improve.
The crease is the biggest plus. Cam Talbot was well below expected as the backup last season. Tarasov, his replacement, grades much higher. Only the Rangers improved their goalie depth more this summer.
The roster is a little thinner. Patrick Kane, 57 points, left for Chicago, and Arvidsson and Kolesar arrive. That is close to a wash, a small minus.
Finishing and goaltending over three seasons are neutral.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov | G | Goalie | Florida | 33 GP · -1.8 GSAx | D+ | Clear upgrade. A solid backup in Florida who replaces a goalie who was well below expected. |
| Keegan Kolesar | RW | Energy / physical | Vegas | 82 GP · 6 G · 17 P | D | Small. A physical fourth-liner from Vegas. |
| Viktor Arvidsson | RW | Sniper | Boston | 69 GP · 25 G · 54 P | C+ | Upgrade. Scored 25 goals in Boston and reunites with his old Los Angeles coach on the second line. |
| Anton Johansson | D | Defensive prospect | Prospect, NHL debut | No NHL games last season | n/a | Question mark. A 22-year-old prospect getting his first NHL chance on the second pair, largely because Edvinsson is unsigned. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James van Riemsdyk | LW | Net-front depth | Unsigned | 72 GP · 15 G · 31 P | C- | Small loss. Scored 15 goals as a net-front forward. Unsigned. |
| Patrick Kane | RW | Playmaker | Chicago | 67 GP · 16 G · 57 P | B | Real loss. Had 57 points and was a key part of the power play. Back in Chicago. |
| Cam Talbot | G | Goalie | Columbus | 34 GP · -13.1 GSAx | E- | Addition by subtraction. Well below expected in 34 games. |
| Travis Hamonic | D | Physical depth | Unsigned | 26 GP · 0 G · 2 P | E- | None. Depth defenseman. |
| Dominik Shine | C | Net-front depth | Unsigned | 18 GP · 3 G · 3 P | n/a | None. Depth forward. |
| David Perron | LW | Middle-six all-rounder | Unsigned | 16 GP · 3 G · 3 P | C- | None. Veteran depth scorer, 16 games after a late trade. |
| John Leonard | LW | Energy / physical | Unsigned | 11 GP · 2 G · 4 P | n/a | None. Depth forward. |
Net: about even on skaters, better in goal. Arvidsson for Kane is close to a wash at even strength, and Tarasov for Talbot is the clearest upgrade of the summer. The unsigned Edvinsson is the big caveat.
Justin Faulk arrived from St. Louis at the deadline and played 17 games. A full season of him on the second pair and the power play is a small plus.
The coach is neutral. Todd McLellan's first full season is already in the starting point, and his long career is close to average.
The result is a C team, 14th in the league, projected for about 91 points. That puts Detroit between Edmonton and Utah, and sixth in the Atlantic, ahead of Boston and Toronto. The books have it about six points lower.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
Copp holds Larkin's spot. Larkin, with 34 goals, grades B+ as a two-way center, but he has practiced all camp without a regular line while he manages an upper-body injury, and he has asked for a trade. Andrew Copp has centered Lucas Raymond, 76 points, and Alex DeBrincat, 41 goals and 85 points, the whole camp. Both wingers grade A-. Copp grades C, so this line is a step down from last season until Larkin is back.
The second line is built for McLellan. J.T. Compher centers Emmitt Finnie and Arvidsson, a two-way line that the coach can use against top players. Compher grades D+, so this line depends on Arvidsson's finishing.
Kasper and the kids fill the bottom six. Marco Kasper, 22, grades C+ and centers a physical third line with Michael Rasmussen and Keegan Kolesar. Nate Danielson centers Mason Appleton and Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, 20, on the fourth. This is where growth shows up first, and where a rookie like Carter Bear could push in later.
The blue line is Seider and questions. Moritz Seider grades A- and plays nearly 26 minutes a night. Edvinsson grades B+, but he is unsigned. Without him, the rest of the defense grades D or lower except Faulk, and the top four ranks near the bottom of the league.
4Who matters most
Seider is the player the price depends on most. He plays the most minutes on the team in every situation, and with Edvinsson unsigned, there is nobody close to him behind. When a big-minute defenseman sits, his ice time goes to someone much worse, and on this blue line that drop is especially steep.
Larkin is the forward to track, for trade news as much as injury. The day Edvinsson signs is the day Detroit's defense looks normal again. On game day, check both.
5Goaltending: the part that got fixed
John Gibson arrived from Anaheim last summer and was very good once he settled in: well below expected in October and November, then clearly above it from December through February. The problem was behind him. Cam Talbot was below expected in most months and finished the season with a terrible April.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot | +0.4 (6) | -1.9 (9) | -2.7 (5) | -1.5 (4) | -2.0 (1) | +1.5 (5) | -6.9 (4) | -13.1 |
| John Gibson | -3.6 (7) | -5.3 (6) | +7.4 (10) | +7.5 (12) | +4.2 (3) | +0.2 (13) | +1.3 (6) | +11.7 |
Our projection looks at three seasons and grades Gibson B, an above-average starter. Tarasov grades D+, which sounds low, but it is a big step up from Talbot, who grades at the bottom of our scale. The common view is that the crease is fine, and we agree.
Detroit has 12 back-to-back sets, and Tarasov will start most second legs. Those nights are not the automatic discount they were last season. Confirm the starter anyway.
6Detroit's system: how they score and defend
Todd McLellan's teams lean toward possession without much hitting, and his first full season in Detroit fit that. The Red Wings were a touch above even on shots and scored a lot on the power play. At even strength they were ordinary at both ends.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Mild possession lean | Mild possession lean (a long career, one full season here) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | +0.4 SD | A few more shots than average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | -0.2 SD | About average |
| Blocked shots per 60 | +0.4 SD | Blocks more than average |
| Hits per 60 | -0.5 SD | Few hits |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | A small, uncertain plus |
| Measure | DET | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 219 | 238 | 9th fewest |
| Shot attempts | 3,546 | 3,470 | 13th most |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 85.6% | 85.4% | 13th highest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.6% | 2.7% | 13th lowest |
| Goals off rebounds | 13.2% | 13.1% | 14th highest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 56.2% | 54.1% | 10th highest |
| Goals on the power play | 27.9% | 23.1% | 4th highest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 237 | 238 | 15th most |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,498 | 3,470 | 16th most |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 30.3% | 31.6% | 12th lowest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 6.4% | 8.1% | 1st lowest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 10.1% | 13.1% | 5th lowest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 22.4% | 23.1% | 13th lowest |
Offense: the power play carries it. Detroit scored the fourth-highest share of its goals on the power play. At even strength, it was ordinary: an average share of slot shots and few rush chances, and it finished below the league average in goals.
Defense: clean in front, busy outside. Opponents took more settled shots than against any other team, but got the fewest rebound chances in the league. That is a team that keeps the front of its net clean and gives up the perimeter, which suits a goalie like Gibson.
What it means for scoring. Detroit's games averaged 6.01 total goals last season: 2.91 for and 3.10 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings expect a middle-of-the-pack offense, a defense a bit below the middle, and games close to the league average.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 7.76 | 14th | 8.18 | 7th | 4.8 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 7.87 | 22nd | 8.00 | 28th | 4.0 |
The power play was better than its goals: 14th by goals but 7th by chances, so it has room to score more. The penalty kill was a weakness, 22nd by goals and 28th by chances allowed.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Raymond | PP1 | Half-wall playmaker | 26 PP points; 7 PP goals |
| Moritz Seider | PP1, PK1 | Quarterback at the point | 25 PP points; 1:33 shorthanded per game |
| Alex DeBrincat | PP1 | The one-timer | 22 PP points; 15 PP goals, 7th in the NHL |
| Andrew Copp | PP1, PK1 | Net front and penalty killer | 8 PP points; 1:26 shorthanded per game |
| Viktor Arvidsson | PP1 | New shooter in the slot | 8 PP points with Boston |
| Ben Chiarot | PK1 | Veteran shot blocker | 1:45 shorthanded per game |
| J.T. Compher | PK1 | Lead penalty-killing forward | 1:30 shorthanded per game |
| Michael Rasmussen | PK2 | Size on the second unit | 1:21 shorthanded per game |
How the power play works. Raymond runs it from the half-wall with 26 power-play points, Seider quarterbacks from the top with 25, and DeBrincat shoots, with 15 power-play goals, seventh in the league. Kane's departure opens a spot, and Arvidsson takes it after scoring 25 goals in Boston.
How the penalty kill works. It spreads the work thin, with no forward over a minute and a half a night. Compher, Copp and Rasmussen are the forwards, and Seider and Chiarot the defense. Edvinsson was one of the regulars, so his absence hurts here first.
What to watch. The penalty kill. It gave up the fifth-most chances in the league,, the one clear weakness on the roster. If it stays near the bottom, Detroit will keep losing close games it controls at even strength.
8What would change our view
- LarkinA trade for picks and prospects would push the rating down. A trade for a real NHL player, or a truce, keeps it where it is.
- Edvinsson's contractOnce he signs, the blue line looks normal. A long holdout would hurt the defense more than any other absence.
- The kidsFinnie, Danielson and Brandsegg-Nygard are the growth this rating counts on.
- The penalty killMoving from bottom five toward the middle would be worth several points.
- A new general managerAn aggressive hire could change the roster by the deadline, in either direction.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.