Dallas Stars
Still a regular-season machine
Dallas kept almost the whole roster that won 50 games for a third straight year, then lost in the first round. Our model still has the Stars among the top five teams in the league and a couple of points above the sportsbooks. The regular season is where this team earns its money.
The bettor's bottom line
- A top-five team, priced a little low. B rating, 5th in the league, about 103 points over 84 games. The books sit at 100.5, a little below us.
- Stars in every slot. Robertson, Johnston, Rantanen and Hintz up front, Heiskanen and Lindell on the blue line: six players grade A- or better. Few teams can say that.
- Oettinger is fine. The talk is about his down year. Our projection still grades him B, a solid starter, and DeSmith is a capable backup.
- A slot team with a lethal power play. Dallas shot the least of any team but got to the slot more than anyone, and its power play scored the most goals in the league.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 48.0% win / 23.1% draw / 28.9% loss (2.08 / 4.32 / 3.46). On the road 40.5% win / 23.4% draw / 36.2% loss (2.47 / 4.28 / 2.76).
Dallas has become the NHL's most reliable regular-season team. Three straight 50-win seasons, 112 points last year, one point behind Carolina, the eventual Stanley Cup champion. Then Minnesota beat the Stars in six games in the first round, the first time in four years they did not reach the conference final.
The summer was quiet. The cap left little room to move, and the big news was keeping Jason Robertson on a one-year deal after a season of 45 goals and 96 points. Mavrik Bourque and Ilya Lyubushkin left for Nashville. Everyone else of note is back.
So the question for bettors is simple: was 112 points real? Mostly, yes. Dallas was a top-seven team on chances, and some of the rest came from finishing and goaltending that both ran hot. The difference is that Dallas has scored more than its chances were worth year after year, so our model keeps a good share of it. The rating comes down from last season, but not far.
That makes us a little warmer than the market. Daily Faceoff has Dallas in the top two of the Central for a fifth straight season, and VSiN likes the over on 100.5. We agree with both. The common worry is Jake Oettinger after a .899 save percentage. Our projection is calmer about him than the narrative. The other talking point is Robertson's contract, a storyline for the summer more than for any game this season.
1What last season really was
Dallas's 112 points came from a very good team that also got the bounces.
| Measure | DAL | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 112 | 3rd | 2nd in the Central |
| Goals for / against | 273 / 222 | +51 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 52.1% | 7th | Top seven |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 52.1% | 7th | Top seven after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 48.4% | 24th | Below even, by design |
| Finishing, goals above expected | +13.7 | 4th | Top four |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | +15.9 | 8th | +16.5 in the first half, -0.5 in the second |
On chances, the Stars were seventh in the league. Their luck-adjusted rating is well below the actual one, because they scored far above expected and got good goaltending in the first half. Part of that is the kind of luck that fades.
Part of it is not. Dallas has finished above expected in four straight seasons, and with shooters like Robertson and Johnston, our model treats that as a team skill. The goaltending was the swing factor: strong before the break, average after it. The shot-attempt share is low on purpose, as the system section explains.
2How the model builds Dallas's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is strong. Measured on chances rather than results, Dallas was a top-ten team last season, clearly a playoff team and close to a contender.
Finishing is the biggest plus. Three seasons of shooting and goaltending together come out well above average. That is the main reason Dallas rates higher than its chances alone would say.
Age is neutral. Benn, Duchene, Seguin and Myers are all in their mid-30s, but Johnston, Harley and Bichsel balance them out. The lineup sits in the middle of the league by age.
The roster is unchanged. Bourque and Lyubushkin were useful regulars, and Kiviranta is a depth replacement. The net change is almost zero.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Kiviranta | LW | Net-front depth | Colorado | 51 GP · 3 G · 9 P | C | Small. A checking winger back in Dallas after three seasons in Colorado. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mavrik Bourque | C | Middle-six all-rounder | Nashville | 82 GP · 20 G · 41 P | C+ | Loss. Scored 20 goals as a middle-six forward in all 82 games. Now in Nashville. |
| Alexander Petrovic | D | Physical depth | Florida | 54 GP · 2 G · 10 P | D- | None. Depth defenseman, now in Florida. |
| Ilya Lyubushkin | D | Shutdown / PK | Nashville | 53 GP · 1 G · 9 P | C- | Small loss. A physical penalty-killing defenseman, now in Nashville. |
| Adam Erne | LW | Energy / physical | Unsigned | 45 GP · 6 G · 8 P | E | None. Energy forward. |
| Nathan Bastian | RW | Net-front depth | Unsigned | 36 GP · 6 G · 7 P | E | None. Depth forward. |
| Michael Bunting | LW | Sniper | Unsigned | 13 GP · 1 G · 2 P | C | None. Played 13 games after a late-season trade. |
Net: about even. Dallas lost a 20-goal middle-six forward and a depth defenseman and replaced them from within. The core is untouched.
Tyler Myers arrived from Vancouver at the deadline and played 16 games. A full season of him on the third pair and the penalty kill is a small plus.
Goalies and coach barely move it. Oettinger and DeSmith are back, and Glen Gulutzan's first season is already in the starting point.
The result is a B team, 5th in the league, projected for about 103 points. That puts Dallas between Ottawa and Vegas, and second in the Central behind Colorado. The books are about two and a half points lower.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
Two top lines. Wyatt Johnston scored 45 goals at 22 and grades A- as a two-way top center. Mikko Rantanen, with 77 points in 64 games, is on his right. Robertson grades A, the highest-rated forward on the roster, and plays with Roope Hintz, another A- center. Most teams would build around either line.
The veterans fill the third line. Matt Duchene, Jamie Benn and Sam Steel all grade C or C+. They are useful scorers in depth roles, and Duchene still plays on the top power-play unit. Tyler Seguin, in the last year of his contract, grades C after an injury-shortened season.
The weak spot is small. Justin Hryckowian gets top-line minutes as a net-front grinder and grades C. That is the one spot where a trade or a call-up would help.
The blue line is elite at the top. Miro Heiskanen grades A+ and Esa Lindell A, and Thomas Harley B+. Behind them, Nils Lundkvist grades D, and Bichsel and Myers are fine third-pair players. By our grades, the defense corps ranks third in the league.
4Who matters most
Robertson and Johnston get the headlines, and their power-play goals matter. For the nightly price, Heiskanen is the most important player on the roster. He plays more than 25 minutes, on both special teams, and his minutes would fall to Lundkvist or Capobianco. When a big-minute defenseman sits, his ice time goes to someone much worse, and the gap on this roster is wide.
The forwards are deep enough that one missing star costs less than it would elsewhere. Two missing stars on the same night is another matter. On game day, check Heiskanen and Lindell first.
5Goaltending
Jake Oettinger had his worst regular season in years, with a .899 save percentage, and the common view is that his star has faded. By goals saved against expected, he was still above average, just not by much. He swung month to month: good in October, December and April, poor in November, January and February.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith | -1.7 (2) | +7.7 (7) | +3.4 (6) | +2.2 (6) | +2.4 (1) | -2.0 (6) | -1.6 (2) | +10.4 |
| Jake Oettinger | +4.7 (9) | -3.3 (8) | +6.9 (8) | -6.8 (10) | -2.8 (3) | +1.3 (11) | +5.8 (5) | +5.8 |
Our projection looks at three seasons and grades him B, a solid starter. He was one of the best goalies in the league two seasons ago, so a return toward that level is possible. Casey DeSmith was better than Oettinger last season on a per-game basis, especially in November and December, and grades C, an average backup.
Dallas has 13 back-to-back sets, so DeSmith will start his share. The drop from Oettinger to DeSmith is smaller than on most teams. Confirm the starter anyway.
6Dallas's system: how they score and defend
Glen Gulutzan's teams play low-event hockey, and his first season in Dallas was the purest version of it. The Stars took fewer shot attempts than any team in the league and allowed very few. What they did shoot came from the slot, and a lot of it went in.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Low-event structure | Low-event structure (a long career, one season here) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | -0.8 SD | Fewest in the league |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | -0.7 SD | Few shots against |
| Blocked shots per 60 | +0.1 SD | About average |
| Hits per 60 | -0.3 SD | Few hits |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | A small, uncertain plus |
| Measure | DAL | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 263 | 238 | 7th most |
| Shot attempts | 3,041 | 3,470 | 1st fewest |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 84.5% | 85.4% | 3rd lowest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.4% | 2.7% | 6th lowest |
| Goals off rebounds | 19.0% | 13.1% | 2nd highest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 61.6% | 54.1% | 2nd highest |
| Goals on the power play | 30.0% | 23.1% | 1st highest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 211 | 238 | 2nd fewest |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,245 | 3,470 | 4th fewest |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 30.3% | 31.6% | 10th lowest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 8.4% | 8.1% | 12th highest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 15.6% | 13.1% | 6th highest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 26.5% | 23.1% | 4th highest |
Offense: quality over quantity. Dallas took the fewest shot attempts in the league but led it in the share taken from the slot, and was second in rebound goals. With shooters this good, the approach works. It is also why the shot-attempt share looks ordinary while the goals do not.
Defense: nothing easy. Only one team allowed fewer goals, and opponents rarely got to the slot. Rebounds against were the one leak. Heiskanen and Lindell do much of that work.
What it means for scoring. Dallas's games averaged 6.04 total goals last season: 3.33 for and 2.71 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings expect an offense in the middle of the pack, a top-six defense, and games a little tighter than average.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 10.44 | 2nd | 8.80 | 2nd | 4.6 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 6.72 | 12th | 7.37 | 16th | 5.0 |
The power play was one of the two best in the league, second both by goals and by chances. The penalty kill was solid, 12th by goals and 16th by chances allowed.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | PP1 | Flank shooter | 37 PP points, 4th in the NHL; 15 PP goals, 7th in the NHL |
| Wyatt Johnston | PP1 | Bumper and finisher | 36 PP points, 5th in the NHL; 25 PP goals, 1st in the NHL |
| Mikko Rantanen | PP1 | Half-wall playmaker | 32 PP points, 7th in the NHL; 6 PP goals |
| Miro Heiskanen | PP1, PK1 | Quarterback at the point | 24 PP points; 3:02 shorthanded per game, 6th most in the NHL |
| Matt Duchene | PP1 | Net front and passer | 14 PP points; 5 PP goals |
| Roope Hintz | PP2 | Second-unit center | 19 PP points; 6 PP goals |
| Esa Lindell | PK1 | Penalty-kill anchor | 3:49 shorthanded per game, 1st most in the NHL |
| Oskar Back | PK1 | Forward pressure | 2:14 shorthanded per game |
| Radek Faksa | PK1 | Faceoffs and kills | 2:08 shorthanded per game |
| Tyler Myers | PK2 | Reach on the back end | 2:20 shorthanded per game |
How the power play works. It is a star unit. Johnston led the NHL with 25 power-play goals, working the middle of the ice, and Robertson added 37 power-play points and 15 goals from the flank. Rantanen runs it from the half-wall with 32 points, and Heiskanen quarterbacks from the top.
How the penalty kill works. Lindell kills nearly four minutes a night, more than any player in the league, and Heiskanen adds three. Back and Faksa are the forward specialists, and Myers's reach helps on the third pair. Lyubushkin's departure takes one regular out of the group.
What to watch. The power play is strong enough to decide games, so penalty-drawing matters. Against teams that take a lot of penalties, Dallas's edge is bigger than its rating shows.
8What would change our view
- OettingerA return to his form of two seasons ago would push Dallas toward the very top of the league.
- Heiskanen's healthA long absence would hurt more than losing any forward.
- The veteransBenn, Duchene, Seguin and Myers are all 34 or older. A sharp decline in the bottom six would thin the depth.
- FinishingFour straight years above expected. A normal shooting year would cost a few points.
- The capA trade to make room for Robertson's next contract could change the lineup at the deadline.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.