Columbus Blue Jackets
A top blue line, a new power forward, same question
Columbus has one of the best defense corps in the league and a goalie who just had a breakout year. On the eve of the season it swapped its best winger, Kirill Marchenko, for Matthew Knies. Our model has the Blue Jackets as a true coin flip for the playoffs, right where the sportsbooks have them.
The bettor's bottom line
- A bubble team, priced right. C rating, 17th in the league, about 91 points over 84 games. The books sit at 91.5. The playoff line in the East runs right through Columbus.
- Defense first. Werenski, Provorov and Mateychuk lead a blue line that ranks near the top of the league by our grades, even with Severson hurt. The top six up front ranks near the bottom.
- The Knies trade is a small step down on paper. Knies is younger, bigger and signed long term. By our grades Marchenko was the better player last season.
- Greaves is the real deal, the backup is not. Jet Greaves grades A after a breakout season. Cam Talbot, 39, starts the other nights, and those games carry a real discount.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 41.9% win / 23.4% draw / 34.7% loss (2.39 / 4.27 / 2.88). On the road 34.4% win / 23.4% draw / 42.2% loss (2.91 / 4.27 / 2.37).
For about a month last winter, Columbus looked like the best team in the East. Rick Bowness took over from Dean Evason in January with the team at 19-19-7, and the Blue Jackets won 13 of their first 16 under him. Then they lost nine of their last 11 and missed the playoffs by a few points, a sixth straight spring at home.
The summer brought Valeri Nichushkin from Colorado and sent Boone Jenner and Mason Marchment away. Then, the day before the season opened, came the big one: Kirill Marchenko, Miles Wood and the injured Elvis Merzlikins to Toronto for Matthew Knies, Emil Andrae, Steven Lorentz and a second-round pick. Marchenko signed a long, expensive extension in Toronto; Knies comes in at a lower cap hit for five years.
For bettors, the question is whether any of it changes the team. Our answer is: not much. Columbus was even on chances last season and a little unlucky in finishing, with good goaltending from Greaves. Knies is a big, physical 66-point winger, but by our grades Marchenko was the more valuable player, so the trade is a small step down this season. The team lands in the middle of the league either way.
That puts us in step with the crowd, which sees Columbus fighting New Jersey and the Islanders for a wild card. VSiN's preview likes the Blue Jackets to make the playoffs at plus odds; we see a coin flip, so a plus price is the right kind of number, but not a strong bet. Daily Faceoff graded the Knies trade an A for Columbus, mostly for the contract and the fit with a young core. We agree on the long view. For this season, the power play loses its best shooter.
1What last season really was
Columbus's 92 points were about what its play deserved, maybe a touch less.
| Measure | CBJ | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 92 | 15th | 5th in the Metropolitan |
| Goals for / against | 246 / 251 | -5 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 50.0% | 17th | Exactly even |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 49.9% | 19th | Even after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 50.5% | 13th | A few more shots than average |
| Finishing, goals above expected | -12.9 | 23rd | Below expected |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | +7.8 | 13th | +1.5 in the first half, +6.3 in the second |
On chances, the Blue Jackets were a perfectly average team, 50% of the expected goals. Their luck-adjusted rating is slightly higher than the actual one, because the shooters scored below expected. Greaves covered some of that with a strong year in net.
The two halves looked alike in the standings, 43 points and 49, with the Bowness surge and the late collapse inside the second. Columbus's shooting has swung wildly from year to year, from far above expected two seasons ago to well below last season, so there is no team trait to lean on. We expect it to land near average.
2How the model builds Columbus's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is about average. Measured on chances rather than results, Columbus was a league-average team last season, a little better than its record.
Age is a small plus. The lineup is on the younger side, led by Fantilli at 21, Mateychuk at 22 and now Knies at 23, and young teams tend to improve.
The roster is a little thinner. Jenner, Marchment and Marchenko left; Nichushkin, Knies and Andrae arrived. Each swap is close, but the players who left graded slightly better as a group.
The crease costs a little. Talbot, the backup, grades near the bottom of our scale. Merzlikins was hurt and is now gone, so the plan is Greaves and Talbot all season.
Finishing and goaltending over three seasons are neutral. Good and bad years have canceled out.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot | G | Goalie | Detroit | 34 GP · -13.1 GSAx | E- | Downgrade risk. Signed late as insurance. At 39, he was well below expected in Detroit last season. |
| Matthew Knies | LW | Power forward | Toronto | 79 GP · 23 G · 66 P | C+ | Close to even. A 23-year-old power forward with 66 points in Toronto, signed through 2031. Goes straight onto Fantilli's line. |
| Valeri Nichushkin | RW | Sniper | Colorado | 72 GP · 17 G · 49 P | B- | Upgrade. A big two-way winger with 49 points in Colorado who also kills penalties. |
| Steven Lorentz | C | Energy / physical | Toronto | 71 GP · 7 G · 18 P | C- | Small. A fourth-line center and penalty killer from Toronto. |
| Emil Andrae | D | Sheltered puck mover | Toronto | 61 GP · 2 G · 13 P | B | Useful. A 24-year-old puck mover who grades well in sheltered minutes. Starts on the third pair. |
| Ryan Lomberg | LW | Energy / physical | Calgary | 57 GP · 4 G · 9 P | E | None. Energy forward from Calgary. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Marchenko | RW | Sniper | Toronto | 76 GP · 27 G · 67 P | B+ | Real loss. Led the team's forwards with 67 points and 19 power-play points. Traded to Toronto on Sept. 28. |
| Boone Jenner | C | Net-front depth | Washington | 67 GP · 13 G · 38 P | C | Loss. The longtime captain, a net-front presence and faceoff center, now in Washington. |
| Miles Wood | LW | Net-front depth | Toronto | 54 GP · 8 G · 14 P | E- | None. Physical depth winger, part of the Knies trade. |
| Mason Marchment | LW | Playmaker | San Jose | 39 GP · 15 G · 32 P | B | Loss. Scored 15 goals in 39 games and graded as a strong playmaker; signed with San Jose. |
| Elvis Merzlikins | G | Goalie | Toronto | 30 GP · -7.3 GSAx | n/a | Small. Below expected last season and out indefinitely after shoulder surgery. Part of the Knies trade. |
| Zachary Aston-Reese | LW | Energy / physical | Unsigned | 27 GP · 1 G · 5 P | D- | None. Depth checker. |
| Brendan Gaunce | C | Defensive C / PK | Boston | 25 GP · 2 G · 6 P | E+ | None. Depth center, now in Boston. |
| Egor Zamula | D | Sheltered puck mover | Unsigned | 20 GP · 0 G · 2 P | D | None. Depth defenseman. |
| Brendan Smith | D | Sheltered puck mover | Unsigned | 15 GP · 0 G · 2 P | n/a | None. Depth defenseman. |
Net: a small step back this season, maybe a step forward later. Columbus turned over three of its top-nine forwards. Knies and Nichushkin are real players, but Marchenko was the best winger on the roster by our grades.
Conor Garland arrived from Vancouver in March and played only 21 games. A full season of him is a real plus: he grades B+ as a playmaking winger, one of the best forwards on the roster.
The coach is neutral. Bowness's half season is already in the starting point, and his long career is close to average.
The result is a C team, 17th in the league, projected for about 91 points, with the Knies trade included. The trade costs Columbus a hair in our rating, enough to slip one place. That puts Columbus between Philadelphia and Boston, and fifth in the Metropolitan behind Carolina, New Jersey, the Rangers and Philadelphia, which it trails by a fraction. That is exactly the wild-card line, and the books agree.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
Knies joins the top line. Daily Faceoff projects Knies with Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson. Knies grades C+, a big winger whose scoring is better than his all-around numbers. Fantilli scored 24 goals at 20 but grades only C, because his defensive play is still behind his offense. This line decides how far Columbus goes.
The second line is the best one. Sean Monahan grades B- despite a quiet 36 points, because he drives play at both ends. Nichushkin and Conor Garland, who grades B+, flank him. By our grades this is Columbus's strongest line.
Coyle anchors the checkers. Charlie Coyle grades B- and centers Cole Sillinger and Mathieu Olivier. The fourth line is built on energy players. By our grades the top six ranks near the bottom of the league.
The blue line carries the team. Zach Werenski had 81 points and plays nearly 27 minutes a night. Mateychuk and Provorov both grade B-, and Andrae grades B in sheltered minutes. Severson, who grades A-, is on injured reserve after shoulder surgery; when he returns, this is one of the best defense corps in the league.
4Who matters most
Werenski is the player the price depends on most. He plays more minutes than almost any skater in the league, runs the power play, and there is nobody like him behind him. When a big-minute defenseman sits, his ice time goes to someone much worse, and with Severson hurt, his absence would be the biggest hit on this roster.
The other player to track is the goalie. With a big gap between Greaves and Talbot, the starter matters more here than on most teams. Check both before every bet.
5Goaltending: Greaves, then a big drop
Jet Greaves came into last season as a backup and left it with a three-year contract. He was above expected in six of seven months and saved about 16 goals more than an average goalie would have, while Merzlikins had a rough middle of the season. Merzlikins had shoulder surgery this summer and went to Toronto in the Knies trade.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins | +2.7 (5) | -4.7 (4) | -5.4 (5) | +0.9 (6) | +2.0 (2) | +0.3 (7) | -3.2 (1) | -7.4 |
| Jet Greaves | +4.2 (5) | +0.2 (11) | +3.6 (10) | +4.8 (10) | +1.3 (2) | +5.2 (11) | -2.8 (6) | +16.5 |
The month-by-month table shows a steady goalie: no big slumps until a soft April. Our projection weighs his whole record, including the minor leagues, and still grades him A, one of the best starters in the league. That is a bigger vote of confidence than the common view, which treats him as a young goalie still proving himself.
The backup is the problem. Talbot, 39, was well below expected in Detroit and grades at the bottom of our scale. On the 13 back-to-back sets, and any time Greaves rests, the price should lean hard against Columbus. Confirm the starter before you bet.
6Columbus's system: how they score and defend
Rick Bowness's teams play a low-event, structured game, and Columbus's shot profile last season already leaned that way. The Blue Jackets took a few more shots than average, created the fewest rush chances in the league, and kept opponents out of the slot. Games were tight.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Low-event structure | Low-event structure (a long career, half a season here) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | +0.1 SD | A few more shots than average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | -0.5 SD | More shots against than average |
| Blocked shots per 60 | -0.3 SD | Blocks a little less than average |
| Hits per 60 | +0.3 SD | About average |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | A long career with a small, uncertain plus |
| Measure | CBJ | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 233 | 238 | 14th fewest |
| Shot attempts | 3,569 | 3,470 | 12th most |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 85.7% | 85.4% | 12th highest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1st lowest |
| Goals off rebounds | 11.6% | 13.1% | 12th lowest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 47.6% | 54.1% | 4th lowest |
| Goals on the power play | 16.7% | 23.1% | 1st lowest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 237 | 238 | 15th most |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,618 | 3,470 | 8th most |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 30.1% | 31.6% | 7th lowest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8th lowest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3rd lowest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 24.9% | 23.1% | 9th highest |
Offense: volume without danger. Columbus shot often but rarely off the rush and less than most from the slot, and it scored the fewest power-play goals in the league. Knies adds a net-front presence the team lacked, but it lost its best shooter in Marchenko.
Defense: the slot is closed. Opponents shot plenty but got to the slot less than almost anyone, and scored fewer slot goals than against any other team. Rebounds against were rare too. That is a team defense built on its blue line.
What it means for scoring. Columbus's games averaged 6.06 total goals last season: 3.00 for and 3.06 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings expect an offense just below the middle, a defense a bit above it, and games a little tighter than average.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 6.15 | 26th | 6.92 | 24th | 3.9 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 8.40 | 28th | 8.64 | 31st | 4.4 |
Special teams were a real weakness. The power play ranked 26th by goals and 24th by chances, so it was bad on both counts. The penalty kill was worse: 28th by goals and 31st by chances allowed.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Werenski | PP1 | Quarterback at the point | 17 PP points |
| Matthew Knies | PP1 | New net-front shooter | 13 PP points; 5 PP goals with Toronto |
| Charlie Coyle | PP1, PK1 | Net front and bumper | 13 PP points; 6 PP goals; 2:00 shorthanded per game |
| Adam Fantilli | PP1 | Half-wall playmaker | 10 PP points |
| Kent Johnson | PP1 | Skill on the flank | 2 PP points |
| Conor Garland | PP2 | Second-unit playmaker | 10 PP points |
| Ivan Provorov | PK1 | Penalty-kill workhorse | 2:56 shorthanded per game, 9th most in the NHL |
| Sean Monahan | PK1 | Lead penalty-killing center | 1:39 shorthanded per game |
| Denton Mateychuk | PK1 | Young penalty-killing defender | 1:31 shorthanded per game |
| Valeri Nichushkin | PK2 | New penalty killer | 1:40 shorthanded per game with Colorado |
How the power play works. Werenski runs it from the top with 17 power-play points. Coyle works the net front and the middle, where he scored six times, and Fantilli sets up from the half-wall. Marchenko was the main shooter, with 19 power-play points, and he is gone. Knies, with six power-play goals in Toronto, is the likely replacement.
How the penalty kill works. Provorov carries it on defense with nearly three minutes a night, one of the heaviest loads in the league. Monahan and Coyle are the forward regulars, and Mateychuk is learning the job. Jenner, a longtime penalty killer, left, and Nichushkin and Lorentz, who both killed penalties last season, arrive.
What to watch. The power play without Marchenko. It was already bottom-eight, and it lost its best shooter the day before the season opened. The penalty kill, which gave up more chances than all but one team, is the other place a defensive coach could make a quick difference.
8What would change our view
- KniesIf he plays like a top-line power forward and fills Marchenko's power-play spot, the trade looks better right away.
- GreavesIf he repeats last season, Columbus has a top-ten goalie. If he regresses, there is nothing behind him.
- Severson's returnRestores one of the best blue lines in the league.
- Special teamsBoth units were bottom-eight. Moving either one to average would be worth several points.
- Fantilli's growthA step forward at both ends from the 21-year-old would fix the top six faster than a trade.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.