Colorado Avalanche
Still elite, just older and thinner
Colorado won the Presidents' Trophy on merit and then got swept in the West Final. Our model rates the Avalanche the best team in hockey, by a hair over Carolina, and projects more points than the sportsbooks. Expect a small step back from last season, driven by age, lost depth and a crease that will not repeat a historic year.
The bettor's bottom line
- The team to beat, barely. A+ rating, first in the league by a hair over Carolina, about 116 points over 84 games. The sportsbooks sit at 107.5. Last season was earned, and most of it carries over.
- The stars carry more of the load now. Nichushkin, Colton and Drury are gone, and the replacements are older or unproven. The top line and Makar's minutes are where the price lives.
- Two good goalies, one fewer miracle. We grade both Blackwood and Wedgewood well above average and rank the tandem fourth. Last season's goaltending was the best in years, and we expect less of it.
- Think game by game. Colorado outshoots almost everyone and wins without much help from its power play. Games with them ran a little under the league's scoring average last season.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 55.4% win / 21.9% draw / 22.7% loss (1.80 / 4.57 / 4.41). On the road 47.8% win / 23.1% draw / 29.0% loss (2.09 / 4.32 / 3.44).
For seven months Colorado was the best team in hockey. The Avalanche went 55-16-11, won the Presidents' Trophy with 121 points and went 8-1 through the first two rounds. Then Vegas, a 95-point team, swept them in the Western Conference Final, closing it out with a 2-1 win on May 26.
A sweep like that invites a verdict. Either the regular season flattered a team that folds against playoff structure, or four games in May told us very little. For bettors the question is narrower: how much of the 121 points was real, and how much will survive a summer that cost the team three regular forwards?
Our answer: nearly all of it was real. Colorado led the league in expected goals share and did it while its shooters finished below their usual level. The goaltending was the one part that ran hot. The drop we project comes from elsewhere: an older lineup, thinner depth and a crease that is very good rather than historic.
That puts us warmer than the sportsbooks and roughly in step with the pundits. Six of 14 NHL.com staffers pick Colorado to win the Cup, and some books have them as the favorite. Where we part ways is the common read that the summer made them deeper and less reliant on MacKinnon and Makar. Our lineup numbers say the opposite: the depth that left was better than the depth that arrived.
1What last season really was
By results and by process, Colorado was the best team in the league.
| Measure | COL | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 121 | 1st | 1st in the Central |
| Goals for / against | 298 / 197 | +101 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 56.6% | 1st | Best in the league |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 56.4% | 1st | Still first after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 57.0% | 2nd | Second in the league |
| Finishing, goals above expected | -3.1 | 18th | Below its own norm for once |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | +34.3 | 2nd | +19.7 in the first half, +14.6 in the second |
The shot share is the repeatable part. Colorado led the league in expected goals share, and teams that control play that thoroughly tend to stay near the top the following season. Even with luck stripped out, our measure of last season rates the Avalanche a touch higher than their actual results.
The finishing is the surprise. Colorado beat its expected goals in each of the four seasons before last (+32.2, +10.6, +11.0, +13.5), then came in at -3.1. The goaltending ran the other way: 34.3 goals saved above expected, second in the league and the best by far in five years. We expect those two to trade places partly. The shooters should find their usual touch; the goalies will struggle to match last season.
The team also slowed down. Colorado took 69 points from its first 41 games and 52 from its last 41, still a strong pace but no longer a runaway one.
2How the model builds Colorado's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is the highest in the league. Measured on chances, Colorado was the best team in hockey last season, slightly better than its record.
Age is the biggest drag. Only one team has an older lineup. Burns is 41, Kadri 35, and Nelson, Schwartz and Manson are 34. Older teams tend to lose ground from one season to the next, and our model takes a real bite for it.
The roster moves are a small net loss. Nichushkin, Colton and Drury were regulars who could play up and down the lineup. Schwartz, Svechkov and a college rookie replace them, and full seasons of last spring's deadline additions cover much of the gap.
The finishing and goaltending track record helps. Three seasons of strong shooting and goaltending earn a modest bonus, because both skills carry over better than a single season suggests.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fedor Svechkov | C | Middle-six all-rounder | Nashville | 70 GP · 4 G · 17 P | D | Small. A 23-year-old two-way center with 17 points last season. Starts on the fourth line. |
| Noah Juulsen | D | Physical depth | Philadelphia | 52 GP · 1 G · 10 P | n/a | None. A physical seventh defenseman. |
| Jaden Schwartz | LW | Sniper | Seattle | 50 GP · 11 G · 26 P | C+ | Small. A smart veteran scorer at 34, signed July 1 to fill Nichushkin's spot. Starts on the third line. |
| Zachary L'Heureux | LW | Net-front depth | Nashville | 25 GP · 4 G · 5 P | B- | Small. Agitating net-front depth. Starts the season on injured reserve. |
| T.J. Hughes | C | Net-front, PP1 | College (Michigan) | No NHL games last season | n/a | The wild card. A 24-year-old Michigan graduate who forced his way onto the roster in camp and opens on the top power-play unit. No NHL track record yet. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Drury | C | Defensive C / PK | Nashville | 82 GP · 10 G · 27 P | C+ | Real loss. A reliable defensive center and penalty killer, traded to Nashville. |
| Ross Colton | C | Sniper | Nashville | 73 GP · 9 G · 24 P | C+ | Real loss. A heavy middle-six scorer who also went to Nashville. |
| Valeri Nichushkin | RW | Sniper | Columbus | 72 GP · 17 G · 49 P | B- | Real loss. 49 points and a big two-way presence, traded to Columbus for draft picks. |
| Zakhar Bardakov | C | Middle-six all-rounder | KHL (SKA St. Petersburg) | 60 GP · 1 G · 10 P | E | None. Seven minutes a night last season. Colorado keeps his NHL rights. |
| Joel Kiviranta | LW | Net-front depth | Dallas | 51 GP · 3 G · 9 P | C | Small. Fourth-line energy, now in Dallas. |
| Nick Blankenburg | D | Sheltered puck mover | Toronto | 12 GP · 2 G · 3 P | B | None. A depth defenseman who rarely dressed. |
| Jack Ahcan | D | Sheltered puck mover | Nashville | 11 GP · 0 G · 2 P | n/a | None. Organizational depth. |
Net: a thinner, older middle of the lineup. Three versatile regulars left for picks and younger depth, and the tight salary cap left little room to replace them. The top of the roster is untouched.
Three players arrived before last season's deadline: Nazem Kadri from Calgary, Brett Kulak from Pittsburgh and Nicolas Roy from Toronto. They played only 15 to 27 games with Colorado, so a full season of them adds something that last season's total barely captured. Kadri now centers the third line and Kulak plays on the second pair. That softens the summer losses, and it is one reason the drop we project is modest.
Goalies and coach barely move it. The tandem is the same one Colorado used last season, so the crease adds almost nothing new to the rating. Jared Bednar returns on the final year of his contract; the model treats him as a known quantity.
The result is an A+ team, first in the league just ahead of Carolina and clearly ahead of Tampa Bay, projected for about 116 points. That is above the sportsbooks' line. Books usually beat preseason models on season totals, so we hold that view loosely, but the gap is in Colorado's favor for a reason: the underlying play was the best in hockey.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
The top line is the league's best. MacKinnon scored 53 goals and 127 points and grades A+ (95), and he will be a Hart Trophy favorite again. Necas added 100 points on his wing, and Lehkonen does the dirty work with 21 goals. This line is why Colorado outshoots almost everyone, and it is also why the team is so exposed to a single injury.
The second and third lines are the question. Nelson grades B and scored 33 goals at 33, but he is 34 now. Landeskog, 33, played 60 games and grades only C. Kadri gives the third line a real center, with Schwartz on the left and camp surprise T.J. Hughes on the right. Previews call the middle six deeper than a year ago. We see it as older and less proven: our lineup numbers rank the forward group fifth in the league and the top six only sixth.
The fourth line starts short. Parker Kelly scored 21 goals in a fourth-line role last season, a rare bonus. Svechkov centers him, and O'Connor returns from a minor injury soon. Until then Bednar dresses seven defensemen.
The blue line is top-heavy. Makar and Toews are a genuine top pair, and four NHL.com staffers pick Makar for the Conn Smythe. He scored 20 goals and 79 points, plays 24:48 a night and remains the most important skater on the ice after MacKinnon. Behind them it thins fast. Kulak and Malinski grade at or below the league's middle, and Manson and Burns are 34 and 41.
4Who matters most
Every price on Colorado starts with MacKinnon, and the market knows it. Our absence research points to the blue line as the less obvious risk. Defensemen who play big minutes matter more to the nightly price than their profile suggests, because their ice time goes to someone worse, and Colorado has very little behind its top pair. A night without Makar or Toews pushes Burns and Kulak into minutes they should not play.
Depth injuries matter more than they used to, as well. With a tight cap and a thin prospect pool, the next man up is often an AHL call-up. On game day, check the top pair and the forward count first.
5Goaltending: a Jennings year that will not repeat
Colorado's goalies shared the Jennings Trophy last season. Scott Wedgewood, a career backup, led the league in save percentage, and the team saved 34.3 goals more than expected, the best mark of any Avalanche season in our five-year window. Mackenzie Blackwood, signed long term, called his own season underwhelming. Bednar has said he wants Blackwood to take the job back, and that nothing will be handed to him.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood | +3.8 (6) | +6.1 (9) | -0.9 (5) | +3.9 (4) | -5.4 (9) | +0.7 (5) | +8.2 | |
| Scott Wedgewood | -0.7 (11) | +7.0 (7) | +1.5 (6) | -2.0 (7) | +2.2 (1) | +8.5 (8) | +6.7 (5) | +23.2 |
The months table shows how the job shifted. Blackwood carried November and December, then gave back 5.4 goals in March. Wedgewood finished with 15.2 goals saved in March and April.
Our projection reads it the other way from the highlight reel. Blackwood grades A- and Wedgewood B+: Blackwood's three-season record is stronger, and Wedgewood, at 34, is unlikely to repeat a career year. That agrees with the Avalanche's plan and with the common view that Blackwood is the higher-ceiling goalie. As a tandem we rank Colorado fourth in the league, excellent but not the best.
The catch is last season's bar. A season like that is mostly not repeatable, and our projection expects the crease to give back roughly eight standings points. That is the single biggest reason we project fewer than 121 points. The drop between the two starters is small, so for bettors the nightly goalie matters less here than on most teams. Trent Miner, the third goalie, starts the season injured.
6Colorado's system: how they score and defend
Jared Bednar's teams have one signature: volume. Over his tenure Colorado has attacked in numbers, taken more shots than almost anyone and drawn plenty of power plays, while giving up slightly fewer attempts than average. Last season fit the pattern perfectly: second in the league in shot attempts, eighth-fewest against.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | High-volume attack | Attacks in numbers, plays the game in the offensive zone |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | +1.0 SD | Among the most shots in the league |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | -0.3 SD | Slightly fewer shots against than average |
| Blocked shots per 60 | -0.1 SD | Neutral |
| Hits per 60 | -0.5 SD | Few hits: the puck is usually theirs |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | A small plus over 782 games, within the noise |
| Measure | COL | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 277 | 238 | 1st most |
| Shot attempts | 4,098 | 3,470 | 2nd most |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 85.4% | 85.4% | 16th lowest |
| Attempts off the rush | 3.1% | 2.7% | 5th highest |
| Goals off rebounds | 14.4% | 13.1% | 9th highest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 45.1% | 54.1% | 1st lowest |
| Goals on the power play | 18.1% | 23.1% | 2nd lowest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 186 | 238 | 1st fewest |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,299 | 3,470 | 8th fewest |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 30.8% | 31.6% | 13th lowest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7th highest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 10.8% | 13.1% | 7th lowest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 20.4% | 23.1% | 5th lowest |
Offense: skill from distance. Colorado scored the most goals in the league, yet a smaller share of them came from inside 20 feet than for any other team. That is what elite shooters do: MacKinnon and Necas score from spots where most players do not. The team also scored a smaller share of its goals on the power play than all but one team, because it did most of its damage at even strength.
Defense: the puck is the defense. Colorado allowed the fewest goals in the league. Opponents rarely had the puck long enough to build pressure, and the ones who did faced some of the league's best goaltending. The weak spot was second chances: Colorado allowed the seventh-most rebound attempts, which great goaltending hid.
What it means for scoring. Colorado's games averaged 6.04 total goals last season: 3.63 for and 2.40 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our scoring ratings carry that into 2026-27 with the league's best offense and second-best defense, at a middle-of-the-league event level. Expect Colorado to score plenty and allow little; the total depends more on the opponent than on the Avalanche.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 5.75 | 27th | 7.20 | 19th | 5.1 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 5.31 | 1st | 6.43 | 5th | 4.7 |
The two units could hardly be more different. The penalty kill allowed the fewest goals per minute in the league and ranked fifth by chances allowed, so most of it is real. The power play scored at the 27th-best rate while creating chances around the league average.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | PP1 | The engine | 27 PP points, 18th in the NHL; 11 PP goals |
| Cale Makar | PP1 | Quarterback at the point | 25 PP points |
| Martin Necas | PP1 | Flank shooter and passer | 21 PP points; 8 PP goals |
| Gabriel Landeskog | PP1 | Veteran presence, bumper | 4 PP points |
| T.J. Hughes | PP1 | Net front | Did not play in the NHL last season |
| Brock Nelson | PP2 | Second-unit finisher | 17 PP points; 10 PP goals |
| Nazem Kadri | PP2 | Second-unit playmaker | 15 PP points; 5 PP goals |
| Devon Toews | PK1 | Top killer on defense | 2:18 shorthanded per game |
| Brent Burns | PK1 | Veteran shot blocker | 2:08 shorthanded per game |
| Parker Kelly | PK1 | Forward pressure | 2:04 shorthanded per game |
| Logan O'Connor | PK1 | Speed up front | 13 games; 1:19 shorthanded per game |
| Josh Manson | PK2 | Second-pair killer | 1:55 shorthanded per game |
How the power play works. MacKinnon and Makar are the two most dangerous puck carriers on any power play in the league, and the unit is built to feed them. MacKinnon scored 11 of his 27 power-play points himself, Makar added 25 from the point, and Necas gives them a right-handed shooting option on the flank. Landeskog returns to a full role, and Hughes is projected to do the dirty work at the net front.
Why it underperformed. A unit with this talent that creates average chances and converts them at a bottom-five rate is mostly a finishing story. Power-play shooting swings a lot over a season, and nothing about the personnel suggests last season's rate is the real level. The second unit, with Nelson's 10 power-play goals and Kadri's passing, is deeper than most teams' first.
How the penalty kill works. Toews and Burns take the heavy minutes on the back end, and Kelly and O'Connor pressure the puck up front. Colorado's forwards read plays early and close lanes fast, which kept the chances down, and the goaltending finished the job.
What to watch. The power play is the likeliest part of this team to get better on its own. Expect it to rise toward the middle of the league or higher, and expect the penalty kill to give a little back from a league-best season. Both moves favor the overall picture.
8What would change our view
- MacKinnon's and Makar's healthBoth were hurt at key moments last spring. The depth behind them is thinner than a year ago, so any absence would cost more.
- The middle sixIf Nelson and Kadri hold their level at 34 and 35, the drop we project shrinks. If age shows, it grows.
- Blackwood's startA strong October settles the crease. A slow one hands Wedgewood the job again, which is no disaster.
- The power playIt generated league-average chances and scored far less. A normal conversion rate adds goals the rating already expects.
- Bednar's contractHe is in the last year of his deal. A rough patch could turn into a coaching story fast.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.