Carolina Hurricanes
The champions are still built to repeat
Carolina won the Stanley Cup by doing what it has done for eight seasons: owning the puck and giving up almost nothing. The same team is back, minus Frederik Andersen and, for a few months, Seth Jarvis. Our model rates the Hurricanes second in the league, a hair behind Colorado and a touch higher than the sportsbooks do.
The bettor's bottom line
- A co-favorite going in. A+ rating, second in the league a hair behind Colorado, about 113 points over 84 games. The sportsbooks sit at 108.5.
- The system is the star. Carolina took more shot attempts and allowed fewer than any team in the league. That carries from season to season better than any single player does.
- The goalies do not decide this team. Everyone is asking whether Brandon Bussi and Pyotr Kochetkov are good enough. Our projection rates both as roughly average, and Carolina has won for years with roughly average goaltending.
- Mark the Jarvis date. Carolina's leading scorer is out until somewhere between late October and the new year. The team is a notch weaker until he is back, and the price should move when he returns.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 54.6% win / 22.1% draw / 23.3% loss (1.83 / 4.53 / 4.29). On the road 47.0% win / 23.2% draw / 29.8% loss (2.13 / 4.31 / 3.36).
On a June night in Raleigh, Brandon Bussi stopped everything Vegas threw at him and Jordan Staal lifted the Stanley Cup he had last won with Pittsburgh 17 years earlier. Carolina went 16-3 through the playoffs. It swept Ottawa and Philadelphia, needed five games to beat Montreal and six to finish the Golden Knights. Staal, 38, took the Conn Smythe.
It was the ending this franchise had been building toward since Rod Brind'Amour took over in 2018. Carolina has won at least 99 points in each of the last five seasons and sat at or near the top of the league in shot share nearly every year, and for years the spring ended with the same complaint: not enough finishing. So the bettor's question is simple. Was last season the peak of a cycle, or is this still one of the two best teams in hockey?
Our answer is the second. Carolina's 113 points were, if anything, a little below how well it played. The core is 23 to 30 years old outside of Staal and Taylor Hall, the system has not changed, and the summer moves were small. The one real hit is Seth Jarvis's shoulder, and it is temporary.
That makes us a shade warmer than the crowd. The Cup futures boards have Carolina second or third behind Florida, betting previews land at 105 to 110 points, and Daily Faceoff calls them clear Metropolitan favorites. The talking points are the same everywhere: a goalie tandem without a proven starter, Jarvis's absence, a short summer after a long run, and whether this is Staal's last season. We share the Jarvis concern and build it into the rating. We worry less about the crease, and our model makes no deduction for a hangover. The short summer is a fair question, but the team that plays this way does not need a hot goalie to win in November.
1What last season really was
Carolina's results were excellent. Its process was better.
| Measure | CAR | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 113 | 2nd | 1st in the Metropolitan |
| Goals for / against | 291 / 236 | +55 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 56.1% | 2nd | Second-best in the league |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 56.0% | 2nd | No change after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 59.9% | 1st | Best in the league |
| Finishing, goals above expected | -9.6 | 22nd | Below average again |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | -0.9 | 20th | -6.9 in the first half, +6.1 in the second |
This is the most repeatable kind of good season. Carolina controlled the puck, controlled shot share and controlled chances. Where it fell short was converting them: its shooters finished below expected goals for the fifth season in a row, and its goalies were close to average. Neither of those is new, and neither stopped the Hurricanes from winning.
The season also got better as it went. Carolina took 51 points in the first half and 62 in the second, and most of that swing was in net: the goaltending went from nearly seven goals below expected to six above. Bussi took over the crease in the fall, became the fastest goalie in league history to 20 wins, and Andersen steadied late in the season. A team that dominates play like this one, with neutral goaltending, is a 110-point team.
2How the model builds Carolina's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is the best in the league. Measured on chances rather than results, Carolina was a better team last season than its 113 points show. That is the foundation of the rating, and nothing else comes close in size.
Jarvis's injury is the biggest minus. The model counts the games a team is expected to play without a regular. Carolina starts the season without its leading goal scorer for two to four months, and that costs more than any other change on the roster.
The finishing and goaltending pull down a little. Several seasons of shooting below expected goals and middling goaltending cost Carolina a small amount. The model trusts the chances more than the finishing, which is why the rating stays on top.
Roster continuity and age are close to neutral. The lineup that won the Cup is almost entirely back. The group is a little older than the league average, with Staal at 38 and Hall and Jordan Martinook at 34, but the core forwards are in their 20s.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph | D | Sheltered puck mover | Vancouver | 31 GP · 1 G · 6 P | n/a | None. A one-year depth signing who lost the sixth and seventh defense spots to Charles Alexis Legault and Mike Reilly in camp. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen | G | Goalie | Edmonton | 35 GP · -3.3 GSAx | D- | Small, and not in the direction most expect. He started most of the Cup run, but our projection grades the 37-year-old below both goalies who replace him. |
Net: the same team that won the Cup, with the goalie who started most of the playoffs gone to Edmonton and nobody of note added. The real change is on the injury list, not the transaction log.
The one gap that could open is on defense. Alexander Nikishin, who played 81 games and scored 11 goals as a rookie, is an unsigned restricted free agent who has asked for a trade and did not report to camp. Carolina still holds his rights, so he is not gone, but for now Shayne Gostisbehere and Legault fill the third pair.
The goalie change and the coach barely move it. Losing Andersen is a small plus on our numbers, and Brind'Amour is the same coach he has been for eight seasons, so there is nothing new to price.
The result is an A+ team, second in the league a hair behind Colorado, projected for about 113 points. Tampa Bay is a clear step back. That is a few points above the sportsbooks' season total. Books usually beat preseason models on season totals, so we hold the gap loosely, but on this team the model and the market agree on the big picture: Carolina is a contender again.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
Depth is the identity. Carolina's forward group ranks third in the league on our lineup score even without Jarvis. It does not have one superstar. It has a dozen forwards who win their minutes. Sebastian Aho grades A (91) and drives the top line with Andrei Svechnikov, who scored 31. Eric Robinson, back from knee surgery, gets the open spot on the right side.
The second line won the Cup. Hall, Logan Stankoven and Jackson Blake carried the playoff offense, and Stankoven's 11 playoff goals put him second on the franchise's single-postseason list. Blake grades B at 23. This is the line bettors should watch in October, because it has to carry more while Jarvis is out.
The third line would be a top-six elsewhere. Nikolaj Ehlers, the big signing of summer 2025, scored 26 and grades B+, and he plays behind Staal and Martinook on a checking line. Staal, the Conn Smythe winner, still grades B (75) at 38. The fourth line is the soft spot, with Nicolas Deslauriers in the lineup for toughness rather than production.
The blue line is good, not great. Jaccob Slavin is one of the best defensive defensemen in the league when healthy, but he played only 39 games last season. K'Andre Miller and Sean Walker make a strong second pair. The third pair is the weakest part of the lineup: Gostisbehere brings power-play offense but gives chances back, and Legault has 12 NHL games. Our blue-line score sits mid-pack, well below the forwards.
4Who matters most
Carolina is built so that no single forward carries the price. That is the point of the roster: when Jarvis goes down, a 26-goal scorer is already playing on the third line. The loss hurts, but the team absorbs it.
The defense is different. Slavin and Miller eat the hardest minutes, and the depth behind them is thin with Nikishin unsigned. A missing top-four defenseman costs this team more than a missing forward, because the next man up is a much bigger step down. On game day, check the blue line first.
5Goaltending: the question everyone asks
Carolina has never paid for a star goalie under Brind'Amour, and it won the Cup without one. Bussi arrived on a waiver claim, went on one of the best starts any goalie has had, and finished the Final in net after Andersen started most of the run. Andersen then signed with Edmonton, and the job now belongs to Bussi and Kochetkov, who played nine games last season before hip surgery.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi | +2.6 (4) | +0.5 (4) | +4.9 (7) | -0.1 (9) | +2.9 (4) | -7.4 (7) | -0.7 (4) | +2.7 |
| Frederik Andersen | -0.4 (6) | -3.1 (7) | -5.7 (3) | +2.2 (6) | +0.6 (1) | 0.0 (8) | +3.2 (4) | -3.2 |
| Pyotr Kochetkov | +1.3 (5) | -1.3 (4) | 0.0 |
The table shows why Bussi earned the job and why the projection stays cautious. He was above expected in most months through February, then gave back a lot of it in March. Across the season he was a little above average. Our projection weighs three seasons and shrinks hard toward average, and it grades Bussi D+ and Kochetkov C. That puts the tandem in the bottom third of the league as a group. It also puts both goalies ahead of Andersen.
The common view is that Carolina is taking a risk in the crease. We see it as the same bet Carolina always makes: a team that allows the fewest shot attempts in the league does not need a Vezina goalie. The rating already assumes average-ish goaltending, so a hot Bussi is upside, not the plan. Kochetkov's health is the real variable. If he cannot handle close to half the starts, Primeau, who struggled badly in three NHL games last season, becomes the backup.
6Carolina's system: how they score and defend
Brind'Amour's Hurricanes are the purest style team in the league. They shoot from everywhere, forecheck hard, rarely block shots and rarely need to, because the puck is almost always in the other end. Last season they led the NHL in shot attempts for and allowed the fewest.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Puck control (outshoots and suppresses) | Puck control: outshoots and suppresses, eight seasons in Carolina |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | +2.1 SD | Far more shots than average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | -2.0 SD | Far fewer shots against |
| Blocked shots per 60 | -2.1 SD | Few blocks: the puck rarely gets there |
| Hits per 60 | -0.9 SD | Few hits: possession over contact |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | A small plus over eight seasons, within the noise once the rosters are accounted for |
| Measure | CAR | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 274 | 238 | 2nd most |
| Shot attempts | 4,127 | 3,470 | 1st most |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 84.2% | 85.4% | 2nd lowest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.8% | 2.7% | 10th highest |
| Goals off rebounds | 9.9% | 13.1% | 3rd lowest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 48.9% | 54.1% | 6th lowest |
| Goals on the power play | 24.5% | 23.1% | 12th highest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 223 | 238 | 6th fewest |
| Opponent shot attempts | 2,926 | 3,470 | 1st fewest |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 36.1% | 31.6% | 1st highest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9th highest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 13.0% | 13.1% | 14th highest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 23.8% | 23.1% | 14th highest |
Offense: volume over quality. Carolina took the most shot attempts in the league, but fewer of them came from the slot than for almost any other team, and it scored few goals off rebounds. It wins by shooting more, not by shooting better. That is why the finishing has run below expected for five years, and why it never seems to matter much.
Defense: nothing gets through, but what does is dangerous. Opponents attempted fewer shots against Carolina than against any other team. The trade-off is that a larger share of what they did get came from the slot, the highest in the league. When a goalie struggles behind this system, it is on a small number of hard shots.
What it means for scoring. Carolina's games averaged 6.43 total goals last season: 3.55 for and 2.88 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). That was a high-scoring year for this team; its games had averaged 5.8 to 6.1 total goals in each of the four seasons before. Our scoring ratings carry both halves into 2026-27: the second-best offense and the best defense in the league, which nets out to a middle-of-the-pack total goals profile.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 8.42 | 7th | 7.67 | 13th | 4.4 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 6.96 | 15th | 6.92 | 9th | 4.4 |
Special teams are solid rather than special. The power play scored at a top-ten rate but created chances closer to the middle of the league, and the penalty kill allowed goals at an average rate while limiting chances better than most.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Svechnikov | PP1 | Power forward, net front | 25 PP points; 11 PP goals |
| Sebastian Aho | PP1 | Half-wall playmaker | 22 PP points; 7 PP goals |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | PP1 | Passer and shooter | 21 PP points; 9 PP goals |
| Shayne Gostisbehere | PP1 | Quarterback at the point | 15 PP points; 6 PP goals |
| Jackson Blake | PP1 | Young shooter | 11 PP points |
| Jaccob Slavin | PK1 | The anchor | 2:41 shorthanded per game |
| Jalen Chatfield | PK1 | Shot blocker | 2:13 shorthanded per game |
| Jordan Staal | PK1 | Shutdown center, faceoffs | 2:06 shorthanded per game |
| Jordan Martinook | PK1 | Forward pressure | 2:04 shorthanded per game |
| Sean Walker | PK2 | Second-pair killer | 1:51 shorthanded per game |
How the power play works. Svechnikov led the team with 25 power-play points and 11 goals, and his size makes him hard to move in front. Aho works the flank and sets the tempo, and Ehlers, in his first season in Carolina, added 21 points as both a passer and a shooter. Gostisbehere gives the unit the point shot it needs to pull penalty killers out of the slot.
How the penalty kill works. Aggressive, like everything Carolina does. The forwards pressure the puck carrier high, and Slavin, one of the league's best defensive defensemen, anchors the back end with over two and a half minutes a night. Staal and Martinook have killed penalties together for years, and Chatfield blocks the lanes the forwards leave open.
The Jarvis gap. Seth Jarvis starts the season hurt, and he was one of the power play's finishers. Blake steps into the top unit, which is a bigger ask than his 11 power-play points suggest. Until Jarvis is back, more of the scoring falls on Svechnikov in front and Gostisbehere's shot.
What to watch. The two units point in opposite directions. A power play that scored above its chances tends to cool, and a penalty kill that allowed fewer chances than its goals suggest tends to improve. Expect them to meet near the middle, which leaves Carolina's special teams a small plus rather than a weapon.
8What would change our view
- Jarvis's returnThe rating assumes he misses a big part of the first half. An early return makes Carolina the best team in the league on our numbers; a setback pushes the date past New Year's.
- Kochetkov's healthIf he cannot share the net, the workload on Bussi rises and the backup becomes a real weakness.
- NikishinA signing adds a top-four option on defense; a trade could bring back a player who fills the third pair or the Jarvis gap.
- Shot share in OctoberIf Carolina is not near the top of the league in shot share after 15 games, the short summer is showing and our number is too high.
- SlavinHe missed half of last season. The blue line depends on him more than any forward depends on anyone.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.