Calgary Flames
Calgary is rebuilding, and the price knows it
The lowest-scoring team in the league traded away more veterans and is starting over around young forwards and a young goalie. Our model has the Flames 31st, right where the sportsbooks put them. The bettor's angle is game by game: a decent penalty kill, a real home-ice split, and very few goals.
The bettor's bottom line
- A bottom-two team, fairly priced. E+ rating, 31st in the league, about 77 points over 84 games. The books sit at 75.5. There is nothing to fade here in either direction.
- No one to score. Calgary scored the fewest goals in the NHL last season and lost more lineup quality this summer. Our scoring ratings put the offense in the bottom four again.
- A goalie debate with a twist. Devin Cooley was far better than Dustin Wolf last season. Our projection still slightly prefers Wolf, but the gap is small. Check who starts.
- Low totals. Flames games had fewer goals than all but a few teams last season, and a thinner roster should keep it that way.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 32.4% win / 23.4% draw / 44.3% loss (3.09 / 4.28 / 2.26). On the road 25.5% win / 22.6% draw / 51.9% loss (3.91 / 4.43 / 1.93).
Calgary spent two seasons trying to stay in the playoff race while its veterans aged. Last season that stopped working. The Flames finished seventh in the Pacific with 77 points, scored fewer goals than any team in the league, and spent the winter trading Nazem Kadri, Rasmus Andersson and MacKenzie Weegar. This summer Blake Coleman and Olli Maatta went to Minnesota.
What is left is a young team in the middle of a teardown. Matvei Gridin, Zayne Parekh, Samuel Honzek and Simon Nemec are all 22 or younger. Jonathan Huberdeau, the one high-end veteran scorer, starts the season on injured reserve after hip surgery.
For bettors, the question is not whether Calgary is bad. It is whether the market has it right. Our answer is yes. Last season's results matched the play almost exactly, a bottom-four team on chances. The summer took away more than it added, and the young core is not old enough yet to make up the difference on its own.
That puts us with the crowd, which widely expects Calgary near the bottom and has it in the running for the first overall pick. Bleacher Report is among those predicting another brutal year for the offense. We agree. The one place we differ is in goal: most of the talk is about Wolf as the franchise goalie, while Cooley had the better season by a wide margin. Our projection sees two close-to-average goalies, and that is one reason this team is not quite the worst in the league.
1What last season really was
Calgary's 77 points were an honest reflection of how it played.
| Measure | CGY | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 77 | 29th | 7th in the Pacific |
| Goals for / against | 208 / 256 | -48 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 46.2% | 29th | Bottom four |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 46.0% | 29th | Same after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 48.6% | 22nd | Below even |
| Finishing, goals above expected | -24.2 | 28th | Bottom five |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | +14.2 | 9th | +5.5 in the first half, +8.6 in the second |
On chances, the Flames were 29th in the league, and their luck-adjusted rating lands right on the actual one. Two things canceled out: the shooters scored far below expected, and the goalies were ninth in the league by goals saved. Take away one and Calgary looks even worse.
The finishing is a pattern now. Calgary has scored well below expected in three of the last four seasons, so our model keeps part of that. The goaltending was good both halves of the season, mostly because of Cooley. The one strange number is the home-road split: 51 points at home, 26 on the road. Splits that wide usually shrink, so we do not lean on it.
2How the model builds Calgary's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is near the bottom. Measured on chances rather than results, Calgary was one of the four weakest teams in the league last season.
Age is neutral. A mix of young forwards and veterans like Backlund, Strome and Huberdeau puts the lineup in the middle of the league by age.
The roster lost a lot. Coleman was the team's best even-strength forward by our grades, and Maatta was a solid defensive defenseman. Nemec, Middleton and Tsyplakov are useful, but they do not replace that. Only one team lost more lineup quality this summer.
Finishing and the crease are a small minus. Three seasons of weak shooting outweigh good goaltending.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Middleton | D | Shutdown / PK | Minnesota | 75 GP · 2 G · 16 P | C | Useful. A physical defensive defenseman and penalty killer, the main piece in the Coleman trade. |
| Simon Nemec | D | Sheltered puck mover | New Jersey | 68 GP · 11 G · 26 P | C- | Upside. A former second-overall pick, 22, from New Jersey. Goes straight to the top pair. |
| Maxim Tsyplakov | RW | Middle-six all-rounder | New Jersey | 49 GP · 2 G · 4 P | C- | Small. A depth forward from New Jersey, starting on the fourth line. |
| Ben Jones | C | Energy / physical | Minnesota | 28 GP · 1 G · 3 P | n/a | None. Depth forward, not on the opening roster. |
| Mike Benning | D | Sheltered puck mover | Florida | 18 GP · 2 G · 6 P | n/a | None. Depth defenseman, not on the opening roster. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Coleman | RW | Net-front depth | Minnesota | 69 GP · 20 G · 35 P | A- | Real loss. Scored 20 goals and graded A-, the best even-strength forward on the team. Traded to Minnesota. |
| Ryan Lomberg | LW | Energy / physical | Columbus | 57 GP · 4 G · 9 P | E- | None. Energy forward, now in Columbus. |
| John Beecher | C | Defensive C / PK | Florida | 29 GP · 2 G · 6 P | D- | None. Depth center, now in Florida. |
| Olli Maatta | D | Shutdown / PK | Minnesota | 21 GP · 2 G · 14 P | B+ | Loss. A steady defensive defenseman who graded B+ in 21 games after arriving. Went to Minnesota with Coleman. |
| Justin Kirkland | C | Defensive C / PK | Unsigned | 20 GP · 1 G · 2 P | C- | None. Depth forward. |
| Victor Olofsson | LW | Middle-six all-rounder | Vegas | 18 GP · 2 G · 6 P | D+ | None. Depth scorer, now in Vegas. |
| Jake Bean | D | Shutdown / PK | Unsigned | 16 GP · 1 G · 2 P | n/a | None. Depth defenseman. |
Net: a clear step back now for a better team later. Calgary traded its best even-strength forward and a solid defenseman for a young top-pair candidate, a defensive defenseman and picks.
Three players arrived during last season. Zach Whitecloud came from Vegas in January and played top-four minutes, and Ryan Strome joined in March and centers the third line. Brennan Othmann made the team out of camp. A full season of Whitecloud and Strome helps, but the in-season trades that sent out Kadri, Andersson and Weegar cost far more.
Goalies and coach barely move it. Wolf and Cooley are both back, and Ryan Huska's record is close to neutral.
The result is an E+ team, 31st in the league, projected for about 77 points. That puts Calgary between Seattle and Vancouver, and seventh in the Pacific. The books agree almost to the point.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
The top line is the future. Morgan Frost, with 22 goals, grades B- as a playmaking center and is the best forward on the lineup board. Gridin, 20, grades C+ after 20 points in 37 games, and Matt Coronato led the team with 45 points. That is a fine young line, but not one that drives a whole offense yet.
Backlund still does the hard work. At 37, Mikael Backlund grades B, the best two-way center on the team, and kills penalties. He centers the second line with Samuel Honzek and Joel Farabee. Strome, Zary and Sharangovich form a third line with some skill.
Depth is thin. Sharangovich, Pospisil and Klapka all grade C- or lower. Huberdeau, who grades B, is the one player who would change the top six when he returns.
The blue line is young and ordinary. No defenseman grades above C. Kevin Bahl anchors the top pair with Nemec, and Parekh, 20, runs the power play. By our grades the top four ranks near the bottom of the league. Middleton and Whitecloud give it some bite.
4Who matters most
On a team with no stars, the most important players are the ones who play the most. Bahl and Whitecloud both play over 20 minutes a night, and there is little behind them. When a big-minute defenseman sits, his ice time goes to someone worse, and Calgary has an extra defenseman or two who would take those minutes.
Up front, Backlund and Frost matter most: one is the only strong defensive center, the other the only real playmaker. Neither has a like-for-like backup. Check the lineup for either before a game.
5Goaltending: the backup was better
Dustin Wolf came into last season as the franchise goalie after a strong rookie year. He played 57 games and finished a bit below average. Devin Cooley, the backup, played 31 and saved about 17 goals more than an average goalie would have. The team's goaltending finished ninth in the league because of him.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Cooley | +2.0 (3) | +8.5 (7) | -1.7 (3) | +4.2 (5) | +0.6 (1) | +2.4 (9) | +1.2 (3) | +17.2 |
| Dustin Wolf | -7.6 (10) | -3.6 (10) | +9.5 (11) | -1.1 (9) | +3.1 (3) | -3.8 (10) | +1.8 (4) | -1.7 |
The month-by-month table shows it clearly: Cooley was above expected in almost every month, while Wolf had one great December and was below expected in October, November and March. Our projection weighs more than one season and grades Wolf C and Cooley C-, close to each other and close to average. The common view is Wolf as the unquestioned starter. We would not be surprised by a split.
Calgary has only eight back-to-back sets, among the fewest in the league, so the backup will play less often than usual. Still, confirm the starter before you bet. Cooley has earned more than a backup's share.
6Calgary's system: how they score and defend
Ryan Huska's teams play at a high tempo and trade chances, and last season fit that only on defense. Calgary took fewer shots than average and rarely got to the slot, while giving up plenty of attempts at the other end. The result was a team that could not score and did not get easy wins.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | High tempo, trades chances | High tempo, trades chances (four seasons with Calgary) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | +0.5 SD | A few fewer shots than average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | +0.4 SD | More shots against than average |
| Blocked shots per 60 | +0.5 SD | Blocks more than average |
| Hits per 60 | +0.2 SD | About average |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | A small minus, within the noise |
| Measure | CGY | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 194 | 238 | 1st fewest |
| Shot attempts | 3,391 | 3,470 | 12th fewest |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 84.8% | 85.4% | 8th lowest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.8% | 2.7% | 12th highest |
| Goals off rebounds | 16.5% | 13.1% | 5th highest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 56.2% | 54.1% | 9th highest |
| Goals on the power play | 19.6% | 23.1% | 7th lowest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 236 | 238 | 16th fewest |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,647 | 3,470 | 7th most |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 31.4% | 31.6% | 15th lowest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8th highest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 12.7% | 13.1% | 16th highest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 21.2% | 23.1% | 10th lowest |
Offense: nothing from the slot. Calgary took fewer slot shots than all but four teams and scored the fewest goals in the league. What goals it did get came more from rebounds than usual, the sign of a team that has to grind for everything.
Defense: too many good looks. Opponents shot more than average, and only one team allowed more goals from the slot. The goalies kept the goals-against close to league average anyway.
What it means for scoring. Calgary's games averaged 5.66 total goals last season: 2.54 for and 3.12 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings expect a bottom-four offense, a bottom-seven defense and games with fewer goals than all but a few teams.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 4.80 | 32nd | 5.91 | 31st | 4.4 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 6.60 | 10th | 7.21 | 12th | 4.5 |
The power play was the worst in the league: 32nd by goals and 31st by chances. The penalty kill was the bright spot, 10th by goals and 12th by chances allowed.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Frost | PP1 | Playmaker and finisher | 13 PP points; 8 PP goals |
| Matt Coronato | PP1 | The shooter | 11 PP points; 6 PP goals |
| Matvei Gridin | PP1 | Young flank shooter | 6 PP points |
| Zayne Parekh | PP1 | Quarterback at the point | 4 PP points |
| Joel Farabee | PP1, PK1 | Net front and penalty killer | 3 PP points; 1:55 shorthanded per game |
| Mikael Backlund | PK1 | Lead penalty-killing center | 2:18 shorthanded per game |
| Zach Whitecloud | PK1 | Top penalty-killing defender | 2:11 shorthanded per game |
| Jacob Middleton | PK1 | New shutdown defender | 1:56 shorthanded per game with Minnesota |
| Kevin Bahl | PK2 | Second-unit shot blocker | 2:28 shorthanded per game |
How the power play works. It runs through the young players. Parekh, 20, quarterbacks from the top, Frost led the team with 13 power-play points and eight goals, and Coronato shoots from the flank with six. Nobody reached 15 power-play points last season, which says everything about the unit.
How the penalty kill works. Backlund is the lead forward, with Farabee alongside, and Whitecloud and Bahl carry the defense. Middleton, a regular penalty killer in Minnesota, joins them. Losing Coleman and Maatta takes away two penalty killers, but the structure held up well last season.
What to watch. The power play. It cannot get much worse, and a year of growth from Parekh and Gridin could move it toward the bottom third of the league. The penalty kill should stay a strength.
8What would change our view
- Huberdeau's returnA healthy Huberdeau adds a real top-six scorer. The timeline stretches into winter.
- The creaseIf Cooley repeats last season, Calgary's goaltending becomes a real strength and the rating rises.
- More tradesBacklund and Frost are the veterans most likely to move. Either departure would push the rating down.
- Parekh and GridinA big step from either young player would help the worst power play in the league first.
- FinishingThree poor years out of four. A normal shooting season would be worth several points.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.