Buffalo Sabres
The drought is over. The hot hand is not guaranteed.
Buffalo won the Atlantic and a playoff round last spring, powered by the league's best finishing and a red-hot second half in goal. Our model sees a good young team underneath that, minus Alex Tuch and Bowen Byram. We land close to the sportsbooks, well short of last season's 109 points.
The bettor's bottom line
- A playoff-line team, fairly priced. C+ rating, 11th in the league, about 95 points over 84 games. The books sit at 96.5. That is 14 points below last season, and we agree with the drop.
- Dahlin is the whole blue line's price. He grades among the very best defensemen in the league. With Byram gone and injuries piling up, Buffalo's defense without him is ordinary.
- Three goalies, no clear #1. Luukkonen and Lyon grade close to average and Ruff plans to rotate. Last spring's hot stretch in net is the part least likely to repeat.
- Finishing was the story. No team scored more above its chances last season. Our model keeps a slice of that, since Buffalo has shot well for years, but not all of it.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 44.4% win / 23.4% draw / 32.2% loss (2.25 / 4.28 / 3.10). On the road 36.9% win / 23.3% draw / 39.7% loss (2.71 / 4.29 / 2.52).
For 14 springs, Buffalo was the answer to a trivia question. Last season it stopped being one. The Sabres won the Atlantic with 109 points, beat Boston in six, and took Montreal to overtime of Game 7 in the second round before the run ended at home on May 19.
The way they got there matters for bettors. Buffalo was an average team through Christmas, with 48 points in the first half. Then the goalies caught fire and the shooters kept scoring, and the Sabres piled up 61 points after the break. The team on the ice was good. The team in the standings was better than that.
Our answer to the obvious question, was it real, is partly. On chances, Buffalo was close to a league-average team last season. The gap to 109 points came from finishing and goaltending, two things that swing from year to year. Add the summer, when Alex Tuch left for Washington and Bowen Byram was traded to Chicago, and a step back is the most likely outcome. The youngest lineup in the league is the reason it is not a bigger one.
On the number, we sit with the crowd. Most division predictions have the Sabres backsliding, and VSiN's preview takes the over on 96.5, betting that the kids fill the gap. We are a hair under that line and would not bet either side. Rasmus Dahlin is widely tipped for his first Norris Trophy after 74 points in 77 games, and our grades back that fully. Jack Quinn is a popular 40-goal pick. Our grades are cooler on him, because his all-around game lags his shot.
1What last season really was
Buffalo's 109 points were built on finishing and goaltending more than on chances.
| Measure | BUF | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 109 | 4th | 1st in the Atlantic |
| Goals for / against | 283 / 240 | +43 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 49.4% | 20th | Below even |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 50.0% | 18th | Exactly even |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 49.2% | 18th | About even |
| Finishing, goals above expected | +24.9 | 1st | Best in the league |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | +24.5 | 5th | -1.1 in the first half, +25.6 in the second |
On chances, the Sabres were 20th in the league, and after our recalibration of shot quality they came out dead even. Their luck-adjusted rating is well below the actual one, one of the biggest such gaps in the league. What closed it: Buffalo scored more goals above expected than any team in the league, and its goalies were fifth by goals saved.
Not all of that is luck. Buffalo has finished above expected in four of the last five seasons, so our model treats good shooting as partly a team trait and keeps some of it. The goaltending is a different story. It was below average in the first half and far above it in the second, a swing that tends to fade. The second half was the best stretch of hockey this franchise has played in years. The rating is built on the whole season.
2How the model builds Buffalo's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is above average. Measured on chances rather than results, Buffalo was a playoff-line team last season, not a 109-point one.
Youth is the biggest plus. No team in the league has a younger lineup. Benson is 21, Helenius 20, Ostlund and Kulich 22, Power 23, Doan 24. Young teams tend to improve the next season, and this is the main thing pushing the rating up.
The roster took one of the biggest hits in the league. Tuch was a two-way top-six forward with 33 goals, and Byram played more than 20 minutes a night in the top four. The additions are depth defensemen. Only Vancouver and Calgary lost more lineup quality this summer by our count, and that is the biggest drag on the rating.
Finishing and the crease are a plus. Three seasons of shooting and goaltending together come out above average, mostly on the shooting side.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Crevier | D | Physical depth | Chicago | 77 GP · 7 G · 25 P | D- | Small. A big right shot from Chicago who played 77 games there, mostly on a bad team. |
| Olen Zellweger | D | Offensive / PP QB | Anaheim | 76 GP · 7 G · 22 P | C+ | Useful. A young puck mover from Anaheim, starting the season in concussion protocol. |
| Matt Grzelcyk | D | Sheltered puck mover | Chicago | 68 GP · 0 G · 12 P | D- | Small. Veteran third-pair puck mover, pressed into the lineup by injuries. |
| Conor Sheary | LW | Middle-six all-rounder | NY Rangers | 62 GP · 7 G · 18 P | n/a | None for now. Depth winger, starting the season on injured reserve. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowen Byram | D | Two-way top pair | Chicago | 82 GP · 11 G · 42 P | A- | Real loss. A top-four defenseman who played all 82 games, traded to Chicago. |
| Alex Tuch | RW | Two-way top C | Washington | 79 GP · 33 G · 66 P | B+ | Real loss. Scored 33 goals, killed penalties and played in every situation. Sign-and-trade to Washington. |
| Jordan Greenway | LW | Defensive C / PK | Chicago | 40 GP · 1 G · 6 P | C | Small loss. A big checking forward and penalty killer who played half a season. |
| Michael Kesselring | D | Sheltered puck mover | San Jose | 34 GP · 0 G · 2 P | D- | None. Depth defenseman. |
| Josh Dunne | C | Net-front depth | Unsigned | 34 GP · 1 G · 4 P | D- | None. Depth forward. |
| Logan Stanley | D | Physical depth | Unsigned | 17 GP · 0 G · 5 P | E | None. Depth defenseman. |
Net: a clear step back. Buffalo lost a top-six forward and a top-four defenseman and added depth defensemen. The plan is internal growth: Benson, Helenius, Ostlund and Kulich all get bigger roles.
Sam Carrick arrived from the Rangers at the deadline and adds a full season of fourth-line center play, a small plus.
Goalies and coach barely move it. The same three goalies return, and Lindy Ruff's record over a long career is close to neutral.
The result is a C+ team, 11th in the league, projected for about 95 points. That puts Buffalo between New Jersey and the Rangers, and fifth in the Atlantic behind Tampa Bay, Ottawa, Florida and Montreal. That is a wild-card team in our order, with the books right beside us.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
Thompson centers the top line. He scored 40 goals and 81 points and grades B. Josh Norris, a natural center who played only 44 games last season, moves to his wing, and Josh Doan, 25 goals, grades B on the right. If Norris stays healthy, this line has three real scorers.
The kids get the second line. Noah Ostlund, 22, centers Zach Benson and Jack Quinn. Benson already grades B+ as a two-way winger. Quinn, with 20 goals, is the camp's big breakout pick; our grade is D+, because his value away from the puck lagged his shot. This is the line where growth, or the lack of it, shows first.
McLeod is the hidden piece. Ryan McLeod grades B+ as a playmaking center who kills penalties. Centering the third line with Peyton Krebs and Konsta Helenius, he gives Buffalo real depth down the middle. Jason Zucker, a 24-goal scorer, is out with a sports hernia.
The blue line is Dahlin and a question mark. Dahlin grades A+, near the top of every defenseman we rate. Owen Power grades B- as a solid top-four player. Behind them, Samuelsson and Zellweger are banged up, Timmins is on injured reserve, and Grzelcyk and Crevier grade near the bottom of NHL regulars. Early in the season, the third pair is a real weakness.
4Who matters most
Thompson scores the goals, but Dahlin is the player the price depends on. He plays more than 24 minutes a night on both special teams, and nobody on the roster can do his job. When a big-minute defenseman sits, his minutes go to someone much worse, and with three defensemen hurt, Buffalo's drop-off is even steeper than usual.
Among the forwards, depth softens the blow of any single absence, and McLeod is the one whose loss would hurt most on both sides of the puck. On game day, check the blue line and the starting goalie first.
5Goaltending: a hot spring, a crowded crease
Buffalo's goaltending turned the season. The team was below average in net through the first half and far above it after the break, one of the biggest mid-season swings in the league. Alex Lyon won ten straight at one point and started the last seven playoff games. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was quietly good from December on. The team reportedly looked at trading for Connor Hellebuyck this summer and did not.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon | +1.1 (9) | -4.8 (4) | +5.3 (8) | +8.0 (4) | +2.1 (3) | +3.0 (7) | -2.2 (1) | +12.5 |
| Colten Ellis | +2.1 (1) | -5.4 (5) | +0.6 (2) | +2.8 (4) | +0.1 (1) | +1.7 (3) | +1.9 | |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | -1.8 (1) | -0.5 (6) | +3.3 (6) | +0.1 (8) | +4.1 (2) | +4.4 (8) | +0.8 (4) | +10.4 |
The month-by-month table shows two goalies who were both good most of the year, with Lyon's January the best single month. Our projection looks past the hot stretch to three seasons of work and grades Lyon B- and Luukkonen C+, a pair close to average. Colten Ellis, the third goalie, grades D-. The common view is that Buffalo's crease is a strength. We see it as solid, not special.
Ruff plans to rotate, and injuries have already scrambled the plan: Lyon is recovering from an upper-body injury, and Ellis may start early games. Starts will move around all season, so confirm the goalie before you bet, especially on back-to-backs.
6Buffalo's system: how they score and defend
Lindy Ruff's teams play a mild possession game and hit very little, and last season fit the pattern. Buffalo was close to even on shot attempts and shot quality. What stood out was how the goals came: off the rush and from settled shots, almost never off rebounds.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Mild possession lean | Mild possession lean (three decades of coaching data) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | +0.4 SD | About average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | +0.0 SD | About average |
| Blocked shots per 60 | -0.4 SD | Blocks a little less than average |
| Hits per 60 | -0.8 SD | Few hits |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | A long career with no measurable boost or drag |
| Measure | BUF | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 258 | 238 | 8th most |
| Shot attempts | 3,491 | 3,470 | 16th fewest |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 85.9% | 85.4% | 7th highest |
| Attempts off the rush | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3rd highest |
| Goals off rebounds | 7.8% | 13.1% | 1st lowest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 54.3% | 54.1% | 16th highest |
| Goals on the power play | 19.4% | 23.1% | 6th lowest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 224 | 238 | 8th fewest |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,591 | 3,470 | 11th most |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 30.1% | 31.6% | 6th lowest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 8.1% | 8.1% | 15th highest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 15.2% | 13.1% | 8th highest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 20.5% | 23.1% | 7th lowest |
Offense: rush and skill. Buffalo created the third-most rush attempts in the league but had the fewest rebound attempts and scored the fewest rebound goals. The goals came from shooters beating goalies clean, which is exactly the kind of finishing that tends to cool off.
Defense: better than it looks. Opponents shot a bit more than average but got to the slot less than most. Buffalo allowed the eighth-fewest goals, helped a lot by its goalies. The structure is fine; the question is who plays it with Byram gone.
What it means for scoring. Buffalo's games averaged 6.38 total goals last season: 3.45 for and 2.93 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings expect a top-seven offense, a defense just above the middle, and games a little more open than average.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 7.21 | 16th | 6.16 | 30th | 4.8 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 5.91 | 3rd | 7.41 | 17th | 4.5 |
The two units told opposite stories. The power play was middle of the pack by goals but 30th by chances, so it scored more than its looks deserved. The penalty kill allowed average chances but was third best by goals, thanks to the goalies.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | PP1 | The big shot | 24 PP points; 6 PP goals |
| Rasmus Dahlin | PP1 | Quarterback at the point | 21 PP points; 6 PP goals |
| Josh Doan | PP1 | Net-front finisher | 17 PP points; 9 PP goals |
| Jack Quinn | PP1 | Flank shooter | 11 PP points |
| Zach Benson | PP1 | Bumper in the slot | 5 PP points |
| Mattias Samuelsson | PK1 | Top penalty-killing defender | 2:43 shorthanded per game, 18th most in the NHL |
| Ryan McLeod | PK1 | Lead penalty-killing center | 2:18 shorthanded per game |
| Beck Malenstyn | PK1 | Forward pressure | 1:43 shorthanded per game |
| Owen Power | PK1 | Second penalty-killing defender | 1:41 shorthanded per game |
| Louis Crevier | PK2 | Newcomer on the second unit | 1:50 shorthanded per game with Chicago |
How the power play works. Dahlin runs it from the top with 21 power-play points, and Thompson fires from the flank, 24 points of his own. Josh Doan is at the net front, where he scored nine power-play goals, and Benson plays the bumper in the slot. Quinn gets the other flank. Tuch's departure takes a regular off the second unit, which now leans on Power, Norris and McLeod.
How the penalty kill works. McLeod and Malenstyn are the forward workhorses, with Samuelsson and Power doing most of the work on defense. Timmins, who killed nearly three minutes a night, starts on injured reserve and Samuelsson is banged up, so the early unit is thinner than last season's.
What to watch. Both units are due to drift toward their chances: the power play has room to improve, and the penalty kill will probably give up more goals without the same goaltending. The net effect should be close to a wash.
8What would change our view
- The creaseIf Lyon or Luukkonen plays like last spring's second half for a full season, Buffalo is a clear playoff team. That is the single biggest swing.
- The kidsBenson, Helenius, Ostlund and Kulich all get bigger roles. Faster growth than normal would cover Tuch's goals.
- The blue line's healthSamuelsson, Zellweger and Timmins back by mid-October restores a normal top six. A long absence for Dahlin changes the season.
- FinishingIf Buffalo shoots like last season again, our model will learn it quickly and the rating will rise.
- Norris's healthA full season from him makes the second line a real threat.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.