Paid the kids. Now find a defense.

Last April the Ducks walked into Edmonton as the young team happy to be there and left with a six-game upset of the Oilers. Vegas ended the run in the second round, but the point had been made. After seven straight springs without playoff hockey, Anaheim's rebuild had arrived a year early.

The summer was about paying for it. Philadelphia tried to pry Leo Carlsson loose with a huge offer sheet, and Anaheim matched it. Two weeks before camp, Cutter Gauthier, last season's 41-goal scorer, signed a six-year deal of his own. The bill came due elsewhere: John Carlson, Jacob Trouba, Radko Gudas and Olen Zellweger all left the blue line, and Mason McTavish and Chris Kreider left the forward group.

So the bettor's question is simple. Does the young core improve enough to cover what walked out the door? Our answer is not quite. The underlying play last season was a little better than the standings said, and a young team tends to keep getting better. But the lineup lost more quality than most teams in the league, and it opens without Troy Terry for two to three months. Put together, the rating falls a notch.

That makes us a little cooler than the market, and in step with part of the crowd. The Hockey News's betting preview takes the under on 95.5 points for the same reason we would: the defense is thinner than the one that just won a round. The common view is that Dostal will be fine and that Carlsson is ready to push toward 90 points. We agree on Dostal. On Carlsson, our grades see a strong two-way center still growing into the top line, not a finished star yet.

1What last season really was

Anaheim's 92 points came from a team that played a little better than its results.

On chances, the Ducks were a middle-of-the-league team that tilted the ice a little in their favor. Their luck-adjusted rating is higher than the actual one, which means the results slightly undersold the play. The two big drags were at the ends of the ice: the shooters scored well below expected, and the goalies were among the worst in the league by goals saved.

The finishing number is the one to be careful with. This is the third straight season Anaheim has scored far fewer goals than its chances were worth, even in a year when Gauthier scored 41. Three years in a row starts to look like a team trait, and our model treats it that way. The goaltending is different. Most of the damage came from Petr Mrazek and a bad December from Dostal, and the second half was close to average. That part should improve.

2How the model builds Anaheim's ranking

Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.

The starting point is about average. Measured on chances rather than results, Anaheim was a league-average team last season, a bit better than its record.

Youth is the one clear plus. Only four teams have a younger lineup. Carlsson is 21, Gauthier 22, Sennecke 20, Mintyukov 22. Young teams tend to improve the next season, and this is the main thing holding the rating up.

The roster lost a lot. Four regular defensemen, two scoring forwards and a few depth players left, and the additions are cheaper. Only a handful of teams lost more lineup quality this summer.

Injuries make the start harder. Terry, one of the team's best forwards by our grades, misses at least two months after hip surgery, and Ian Moore, a steady young defenseman, is out a few more weeks. Our rating counts the games they are expected to miss.

Finishing and the crease are a small minus. Three seasons of shooting and goaltending together come out below average, mostly on the shooting side.

Summer moves: in and out

Net: a clear step back on paper. Anaheim kept its young core and paid for it by letting four regular defensemen and two scoring forwards go. The arrivals are depth players and two teenage first-round picks, so any upgrade has to come from growth inside the room.

That growth is real. Sennecke scored 60 points as a 19-year-old rookie, Carlsson and Gauthier took big steps, and LaCombe became a top-pair defenseman. Our rating gives the young core credit for improving. It just does not give enough to cover the summer.

Goalies and coach barely move it. Dostal and Husso return, so the crease is unchanged, and Joel Quenneville's first season is already in the starting point.

The result is a C- team, 22nd in the league, projected for about 89 points. That puts Anaheim between Pittsburgh and Winnipeg, and fourth in the Pacific behind Vegas, Edmonton and Los Angeles. The books expect about five points more. In a division this weak, a playoff spot is still within reach.

Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.

Reading the lineup

The top line is the future, now. Carlsson centers Beckett Sennecke and Mikael Granlund. Sennecke already grades B+, the best forward on the board, after a 60-point rookie year, and Granlund, 34, brings a veteran two-way game.

Gauthier drives the second line. Daily Faceoff has last season's 41-goal scorer with Ryan Poehling and Nikita Nesterenko. Gauthier grades only C, because his all-around play lagged his shooting, and Poehling grades C+ as a defensive center. Until Terry returns, this line leans almost entirely on Gauthier's shot.

The rookies share a line. Roger McQueen, who has never played an NHL game, centers Alex Killorn, 37, and Nikita Klepov, this summer's first-round pick. Two rookies in the top nine is a lot for a team with playoff hopes. Frank Vatrano, who grades near the bottom of NHL regulars, starts as an extra.

The blue line is LaCombe and questions. LaCombe grades A+, a real top-pair puck mover with 58 points and more than 24 minutes a night. Tristan Luneau, 22, gets the first chance beside him. Mintyukov is fine on the second pair with Nick Jensen, 36, and Tyson Hinds and Drew Helleson make up the third. Until Moore returns, the bottom four ranks among the weakest in the league.

4Who matters most

The scoring stars get the attention, but for the nightly price LaCombe is the player who matters most. He plays the most minutes on the team, on both special teams, and there is no one behind him who can do the same job. When a big-minute defenseman sits, his ice time goes to someone much worse, and on this roster the drop is steep.

Among the forwards, Terry's return is the date to circle. Until then, check the top line before every game. A missed game by Carlsson or Sennecke pushes a rookie or a fourth-liner into top-six minutes, and the price should move with it.

5Goaltending: a normal year would be an upgrade

Anaheim's goaltending was among the worst in the league last season, and most of that came in the first half. Mrazek was well below expected in his ten starts, and Dostal had one terrible month in December. In the second half the crease was close to average.

The month-by-month table shows a goalie who swings. Dostal was strong in October and January and poor in December and April, with little in between. Our projection looks past the swings to three seasons of work and grades him C+, a little above an average starter. The common view is that the crease is fine, and we agree.

Husso is the weak spot. He grades D, and his season was a mix of bad months and one good March. Brossoit, the more reliable backup by our numbers, was waived to the AHL. With 11 back-to-back sets on the schedule, Husso will start his share, and those are the nights the price should lean against Anaheim. Confirm the starter before you bet.

6Anaheim's system: how they score and defend

Joel Quenneville's first season in Anaheim looked a lot like his teams in Chicago: shoot a lot, skate a lot, hit very little. The Ducks took the third-most shot attempts in the league and created more rush chances than anyone. They also gave up a lot of dangerous looks, and the games were the most open in the NHL.

Offense: speed and second chances. Anaheim led the league in rush attempts and was near the top in rebound goals. That fits a young, fast top line. The problem was finishing on everything else: settled shots from the half-wall and the point rarely went in.

Defense: few shots, bad ones. Opponents did not shoot much more than average, but they got to the slot often, and only three teams allowed more goals. Rush chances against were the fewest in the league, so the trouble came in the defensive zone, where the lost veterans used to play.

What it means for scoring. Anaheim's games averaged 6.74 total goals last season: 3.23 for and 3.51 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings expect more of the same: a top-six offense, a bottom-three defense and the most open matchup profile in the league.

7Special teams

The power play was better than its results. It ranked 14th by chances but 23rd by goals, the same finishing problem as at even strength. The penalty kill was a real weakness, 24th by chances allowed and 29th by goals.

How the power play works. It runs through the young core. Gauthier is the shooter, with 11 power-play goals, one of the higher totals in the league. Carlsson and Sennecke make plays from the flanks, LaCombe runs the top, and Granlund works the middle, where he scored seven times. Carlson ran the point during the playoff run and is gone, so LaCombe takes the job full time.

How the penalty kill works. Poehling and Killorn are the forward workhorses, and Mintyukov and LaCombe carry most of the load on defense. Gudas, Trouba and Carlson all killed penalties, and all three left, so the unit that finished near the bottom lost three of its regulars.

What to watch. The penalty kill in October. It was already weak, it lost its veterans, and Anaheim's defense gives up the slot. If it stays near the bottom of the league, the price should lean toward the opponent's power play in close matchups.

8What would change our view

• The blue lineA trade for a real top-four defenseman would move the rating more than anything else. Moore's return in October helps a little.
• Terry's returnBack before Christmas, he gives the second line a real scorer and moves a rookie down the lineup.
• The rookiesIf McQueen and Klepov play like top-nine NHL forwards from the start, the depth problem shrinks.
• FinishingThree bad years in a row. A normal shooting season would be worth several points, and Gauthier showed it is possible.
• Dostal's swingsA steady season in net would lift a team that gives up this many good chances.
• Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.